The Most Important Games for the Penn State Nittany Lions are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Nittany Lions final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Penn State Nittany Lions fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Penn State Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10** First Round Bye |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| Penn State (4‑5) vs Ohio St. (8‑1) |
11 | Penn State Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 22% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% | ||
| Ohio St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 19% | 31% | ||
| Purdue (9‑1) vs Maryland (5‑4) |
1 | Purdue Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 13% | 18% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% | ||
| Maryland Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 32% | ||
| NorthwesternN. Western (6‑1) vs Illinois (7‑2) |
0 | NorthwesternN. Western Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 19% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% | ||
| Illinois Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% | ||
| Nebraska (7‑2) vs Michigan St. (4‑4) |
0 | Nebraska Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% | ||
| Michigan St. Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 31% | ||
| Iowa (5‑4) vs Michigan (4‑5) |
0 | Iowa Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 19% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 30% | ||
| Michigan Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 31% | ||