PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Feb 25 10:15 pm

Big 10 Basketball - Week 16 of 18

Penn State What If?

The Penn State Nittany Lions What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Penn State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Penn State What If?

Next Game - Iowa (15‑12)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
2*
First and Second
Round Byes
3*
First and Second
Round Byes
4*
First and Second
Round Byes
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8**
First Round Bye
9**
First Round Bye
10**
First Round Bye
11 12 13 14
Win Next Game 9 9 X <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 29% 34% 18% 6% 1% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings 8 9 X <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 26% 22% 15% 8% 3% <1% ^
Lose Next Game 8 10 X X X <1% <1% 2% 14% 21% 25% 21% 13% 5% 1% ^


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
2*
First and Second
Round Byes
3*
First and Second
Round Byes
4*
First and Second
Round Byes
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8**
First Round Bye
9**
First Round Bye
10**
First Round Bye
11 12 13 14
Best Case Scenario X X X <1% 1% 9% 31% 35% 21% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^
Current Standings X <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 20% 26% 22% 15% 8% 3% <1% ^
Worst Case Scenario X X X <1% <1% 2% 14% 19% 22% 19% 14% 8% 2% ^
Best Case Scenario
   Wisconsin beats Indiana
   Penn State beats Iowa
   Nebraska beats Ohio St.
Worst Case Scenario
   Indiana beats Wisconsin
   Iowa beats Penn State
   Ohio St. beats Nebraska
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
2*
First and Second
Round Byes
3*
First and Second
Round Byes
4*
First and Second
Round Byes
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8**
First Round Bye
9**
First Round Bye
10**
First Round Bye
11 12 13 14
3 of 3 100% 11 9 X <1% <1% 1% 12% 35% 51% 3% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
2 of 3 67% 10 10 X X X <1% <1% 6% 47% 43% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
1 of 3 33% 9 11 X X X X X <1% 3% 28% 45% 20% 4% <1% ^ ^
0 of 3 0% 8 12 X X X X X X X X 10% 37% 35% 16% 2% ^
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament