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Wed Feb 25 5:00 am

Big 10 Basketball - Week 17 of 18

Penn State What If?

The Penn State Nittany Lions What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Penn State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Penn State What If?

Next Game - Iowa (19‑8)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 3*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 4*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 5**
First and Second
Round Byes
 6**
First and Second
Round Byes
 7**
First and Second
Round Byes
 8**
First and Second
Round Byes
 9***
First Round Bye
 10***
First Round Bye
 11***
First Round Bye
 12***
First Round Bye
 13***
First Round Bye
 14***
First Round Bye
 15 16 17 18
Win Next Game 3 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 2% 13% 16% 70%
Current Standings 2 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 5% 7% 87%
Lose Next Game 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2% 4% 94%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 3*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 4*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 5**
First and Second
Round Byes
 6**
First and Second
Round Byes
 7**
First and Second
Round Byes
 8**
First and Second
Round Byes
 9***
First Round Bye
 10***
First Round Bye
 11***
First Round Bye
 12***
First Round Bye
 13***
First Round Bye
 14***
First Round Bye
 15 16 17 18
Current Standings X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 5% 7% 87%
Best Case Scenario
None 		Worst Case Scenario
None
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 2*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 3*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 4*
First, Second, and
Third Round Byes
 5**
First and Second
Round Byes
 6**
First and Second
Round Byes
 7**
First and Second
Round Byes
 8**
First and Second
Round Byes
 9***
First Round Bye
 10***
First Round Bye
 11***
First Round Bye
 12***
First Round Bye
 13***
First Round Bye
 14***
First Round Bye
 15 16 17 18
3 of 3 100% 5 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 2% 12% 51% 31% 4%
2 of 3 67% 4 16 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 9% 24% 68%
1 of 3 33% 3 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 3 0% 2 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first, second, and third round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • **  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • **   denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament