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Sat Dec 14 4:45 am

Coastal Basketball - Week 6 of 17

N. Carolina A&T What If?

The N. Carolina A&T Aggies What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how N. Carolina A&T plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

N. Carolina A&T What If?

Next Game - Elon (6‑3)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Win Next Game 1 1 <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 7% 8% 10% 11% 13% 14% 14% 11%
Current Standings 0 1 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 10% 12% 14% 17% 18%
Lose Next Game 0 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 15% 17% 20%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 7% 8% 10% 11% 13% 14% 14% 11%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 7% 8% 10% 12% 14% 17% 18%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 15% 17% 20%
Best Case Scenario
   N. Carolina A&T beats Elon
 Worst Case Scenario
   Elon beats N. Carolina A&T
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10**
First Round Bye
 11 12 13 14
17 of 17 100% 17 1 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 16 2 93% 7% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 15 3 69% 28% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 14 4 33% 49% 17% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 17 76% 13 5 8% 35% 40% 15% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 17 71% 12 6 1% 10% 32% 37% 17% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 17 65% 11 7 <1% 1% 8% 27% 37% 21% 5% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 17 59% 10 8 <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 36% 27% 8% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
9 of 17 53% 9 9 X X <1% <1% 2% 15% 34% 33% 13% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 17 47% 8 10 X X X <1% <1% 1% 9% 29% 36% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1%
7 of 17 41% 7 11 X X X X <1% <1% 1% 6% 24% 37% 25% 7% 1% <1%
6 of 17 35% 6 12 X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 19% 37% 30% 9% 1%
5 of 17 29% 5 13 X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 17% 39% 34% 8%
4 of 17 24% 4 14 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 2% 19% 48% 31%
3 of 17 18% 3 15 X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% 3% 33% 64%
2 of 17 12% 2 16 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 11% 89%
1 of 17 6% 1 17 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% 1% 99%
0 of 17 0% 0 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament