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Sat Sep 13 6:00 pm

English Premier League - Week 5 of 41

Chelsea What If?

The Chelsea What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chelsea What If?

Next Game - Manchester United (1‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 3 0 2 11 12% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4%
Current Standings 2 0 2 8 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7%
Lose Next Game 2 1 2 8 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 9%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 12% 10% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4%
Current Standings 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 7%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 9%
Best Case Scenario
   Chelsea beats Manchester United
 Worst Case Scenario
   Manchester United beats Chelsea
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
34 of 34 100% 36 0 2 110 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 34 88% 32 4 2 98 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 34 74% 27 9 2 83 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 34 65% 24 12 2 74 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 34 62% 23 13 2 71 86% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 34 59% 22 14 2 68 64% 31% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
19 of 34 56% 21 15 2 65 32% 43% 21% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
18 of 34 53% 20 16 2 62 7% 25% 35% 23% 8% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 34 50% 19 17 2 59 <1% 3% 12% 27% 30% 19% 7% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 34 47% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 20% 29% 24% 12% 4% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 34 44% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 22% 28% 23% 11% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 34 41% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 10% 22% 28% 23% 10% 3% <1% <1%
13 of 34 38% 15 21 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 14% 27% 29% 18% 7%
12 of 34 35% 14 22 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 13% 29% 54%
11 of 34 32% 13 23 2 41 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 92%
10 of 34 29% 12 24 2 38 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
5 of 34 15% 7 29 2 23 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 34 0% 2 34 2 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League