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Sat Dec 20 5:45 pm

English Premier League - Week 19 of 41

Manchester City What If?

The Manchester City What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Manchester City What If?

Next Game - Nottingham (5‑8‑3)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 13 4 1 40 44% 42% 10% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 12 4 1 37 41% 43% 11% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 12 5 1 37 32% 46% 14% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 53% 34% 9% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 41% 43% 11% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 30% 48% 14% 5% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Manchester City beats Nottingham
   Brighton beats Arsenal
 Worst Case Scenario
   Nottingham beats Manchester City
   Arsenal beats Brighton
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
EPL Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
21 of 21 100% 33 4 1 100 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 21 95% 32 5 1 97 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 21 86% 30 7 1 91 87% 13% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 21 81% 29 8 1 88 71% 28% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 21 76% 28 9 1 85 52% 47% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 21 71% 27 10 1 82 33% 63% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 21 67% 26 11 1 79 16% 71% 12% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 21 62% 25 12 1 76 6% 64% 28% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 21 57% 24 13 1 73 2% 42% 44% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 21 52% 23 14 1 70 <1% 18% 46% 29% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 21 48% 22 15 1 67 <1% 4% 25% 40% 24% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 21 43% 21 16 1 64 <1% <1% 6% 23% 36% 25% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
8 of 21 38% 20 17 1 61 <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 32% 29% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
7 of 21 33% 19 18 1 58 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 25% 32% 21% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
6 of 21 29% 18 19 1 55 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 29% 30% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
5 of 21 24% 17 20 1 52 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 32% 27% 12% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 21 19% 16 21 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 26% 33% 21% 6% 1% <1% <1%
3 of 21 14% 15 22 1 46 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 19% 35% 29% 10% 1% <1%
2 of 21 10% 14 23 1 43 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 35% 34% 12% 1%
1 of 21 5% 13 24 1 40 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 38% 36% 11%
0 of 21 0% 12 25 1 37 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 17% 45% 35%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes EPL Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ** denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • ***denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League