The Ball State Cardinals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Ball State plays future conference games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Win Next Game | 1 | 0 | 15% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 0 | 0 | 11% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| Lose Next Game | 0 | 1 | 5% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% |
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 15% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 1% |
| Current Standings | 11% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 5% |
|
Best Case Scenario Ball State beats Central Michigan |
Worst Case Scenario Central Michigan beats Ball State |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* Conference Championship Game Participant |
2* Conference Championship Game Participant |
3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | ||
| 8 of 8 | 100% | 8 | 0 | 93% | 7% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 8 | 88% | 7 | 1 | 59% | 35% | 6% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 | 2 | 10% | 37% | 36% | 14% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 5 of 8 | 63% | 5 | 3 | <1% | 3% | 16% | 35% | 31% | 13% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 | 4 | X | X | <1% | 3% | 15% | 33% | 33% | 14% | 2% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 8 | 38% | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 13% | 31% | 36% | 17% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 2% | 14% | 36% | 38% | 11% |
| 1 of 8 | 13% | 1 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | 6% | 30% | 65% |
| 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 5% | 95% |