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Thu Sep 19 8:15 pm

MLB - Week 27 of 28

Blue Jays What If?

The Blue Jays What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Blue Jays play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Blue Jays What If?

Next Game - Rays (74‑78)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 74 80 X X X X <1% <1% >99%
Current Standings 73 80 X X X X <1% <1% >99%
Lose Next Game 73 81 X X X X X <1% >99%


Current Series - Rays (74‑78) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Blue Jays Sweeps 76 80 X X X X <1% <1% >99%
Current Standings 73 80 X X X X <1% <1% >99%
Rays Sweeps 73 83 X X X X X X 100%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Current Standings X X X X <1% <1% >99%
Best Case Scenario
None 		Worst Case Scenario
None
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
9 of 9 100% 82 80 X X X X <1% <1% >99%
8 of 9 89% 81 81 X X X X X <1% >99%
7 of 9 78% 80 82 X X X X X X 100%
6 of 9 67% 79 83 X X X X X X 100%
5 of 9 56% 78 84 X X X X X X 100%
4 of 9 44% 77 85 X X X X X X 100%
3 of 9 33% 76 86 X X X X X X 100%
2 of 9 22% 75 87 X X X X X X 100%
1 of 9 11% 74 88 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 9 0% 73 89 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs