The Blue Jays What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Blue Jays play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 14 | 16 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 68% |
| Current Standings | 13 | 16 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 68% |
| Lose Next Game | 13 | 17 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 69% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Blue Jays Sweeps | 15 | 16 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 66% |
| Current Standings | 13 | 16 | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 68% |
| Red Sox Sweeps | 13 | 18 | 1% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 72% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 133 of 133 | 100% | 146 | 16 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 133 | 98% | 143 | 19 | >99% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 120 of 133 | 90% | 133 | 29 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 110 of 133 | 83% | 123 | 39 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 133 | 76% | 114 | 48 | 95% | 4% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 of 133 | 75% | 113 | 49 | 93% | 6% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 of 133 | 74% | 112 | 50 | 91% | 8% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 98 of 133 | 74% | 111 | 51 | 87% | 10% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 97 of 133 | 73% | 110 | 52 | 83% | 13% | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 96 of 133 | 72% | 109 | 53 | 79% | 16% | 1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 95 of 133 | 71% | 108 | 54 | 73% | 20% | 1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 94 of 133 | 71% | 107 | 55 | 67% | 24% | 2% | 7% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 93 of 133 | 70% | 106 | 56 | 59% | 28% | 3% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 92 of 133 | 69% | 105 | 57 | 53% | 31% | 4% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 91 of 133 | 68% | 104 | 58 | 45% | 36% | 5% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 90 of 133 | 68% | 103 | 59 | 38% | 36% | 8% | 17% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 89 of 133 | 67% | 102 | 60 | 31% | 38% | 9% | 20% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 88 of 133 | 66% | 101 | 61 | 26% | 38% | 11% | 23% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 87 of 133 | 65% | 100 | 62 | 18% | 37% | 15% | 26% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 86 of 133 | 65% | 99 | 63 | 13% | 35% | 17% | 28% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 85 of 133 | 64% | 98 | 64 | 10% | 33% | 19% | 29% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 84 of 133 | 63% | 97 | 65 | 7% | 28% | 21% | 30% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| 83 of 133 | 62% | 96 | 66 | 5% | 24% | 22% | 30% | 16% | 3% | <1% |
| 82 of 133 | 62% | 95 | 67 | 3% | 20% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 5% | 1% |
| 81 of 133 | 61% | 94 | 68 | 2% | 16% | 24% | 27% | 23% | 7% | 1% |
| 80 of 133 | 60% | 93 | 69 | 1% | 13% | 24% | 24% | 27% | 11% | 2% |
| 79 of 133 | 59% | 92 | 70 | 1% | 9% | 23% | 20% | 29% | 15% | 4% |
| 78 of 133 | 59% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 7% | 21% | 17% | 29% | 19% | 7% |
| 77 of 133 | 58% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 5% | 19% | 13% | 29% | 23% | 11% |
| 76 of 133 | 57% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 3% | 17% | 10% | 27% | 27% | 15% |
| 75 of 133 | 56% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 2% | 14% | 8% | 24% | 30% | 23% |
| 74 of 133 | 56% | 87 | 75 | <1% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 20% | 30% | 31% |
| 73 of 133 | 55% | 86 | 76 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 3% | 15% | 29% | 41% |
| 72 of 133 | 54% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 26% | 52% |
| 71 of 133 | 53% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | 8% | 22% | 62% |
| 70 of 133 | 53% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 5% | 19% | 71% |
| 69 of 133 | 52% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 3% | 13% | 80% |
| 68 of 133 | 51% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 9% | 87% |
| 67 of 133 | 50% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 91% |
| 66 of 133 | 50% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 95% |
| 60 of 133 | 45% | 73 | 89 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 50 of 133 | 38% | 63 | 99 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 133 | 30% | 53 | 109 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 133 | 23% | 43 | 119 | X | X | <1% | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 20 of 133 | 15% | 33 | 129 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 133 | 8% | 23 | 139 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 133 | 0% | 13 | 149 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |