The Orioles What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Orioles play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 10 | 13 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 70% |
| Current Standings | 9 | 13 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 70% |
| Lose Next Game | 9 | 14 | 1% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 72% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Orioles Sweeps | 11 | 13 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 69% |
| Current Standings | 9 | 13 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 70% |
| Nationals Sweeps | 9 | 15 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 73% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 140 of 140 | 100% | 149 | 13 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 140 | 93% | 139 | 23 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 120 of 140 | 86% | 129 | 33 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 110 of 140 | 79% | 119 | 43 | 98% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 of 140 | 76% | 116 | 46 | 94% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 106 of 140 | 76% | 115 | 47 | 92% | 7% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 of 140 | 75% | 114 | 48 | 90% | 9% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 104 of 140 | 74% | 113 | 49 | 86% | 12% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 103 of 140 | 74% | 112 | 50 | 82% | 15% | 1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 of 140 | 73% | 111 | 51 | 77% | 19% | 1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 140 | 72% | 110 | 52 | 73% | 21% | 1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 of 140 | 71% | 109 | 53 | 67% | 25% | 2% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 of 140 | 71% | 108 | 54 | 60% | 29% | 3% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 98 of 140 | 70% | 107 | 55 | 53% | 32% | 4% | 11% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 97 of 140 | 69% | 106 | 56 | 46% | 36% | 6% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 96 of 140 | 69% | 105 | 57 | 39% | 38% | 7% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 95 of 140 | 68% | 104 | 58 | 32% | 39% | 9% | 18% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 94 of 140 | 67% | 103 | 59 | 26% | 38% | 12% | 21% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 93 of 140 | 66% | 102 | 60 | 20% | 38% | 14% | 24% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 92 of 140 | 66% | 101 | 61 | 16% | 35% | 16% | 26% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 91 of 140 | 65% | 100 | 62 | 11% | 33% | 18% | 29% | 8% | 1% | <1% |
| 90 of 140 | 64% | 99 | 63 | 9% | 30% | 20% | 29% | 11% | 1% | <1% |
| 89 of 140 | 64% | 98 | 64 | 6% | 26% | 21% | 30% | 14% | 2% | <1% |
| 88 of 140 | 63% | 97 | 65 | 4% | 22% | 22% | 31% | 17% | 3% | <1% |
| 87 of 140 | 62% | 96 | 66 | 3% | 19% | 22% | 28% | 21% | 5% | 1% |
| 86 of 140 | 61% | 95 | 67 | 2% | 15% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 8% | 1% |
| 85 of 140 | 61% | 94 | 68 | 1% | 12% | 22% | 24% | 28% | 11% | 2% |
| 84 of 140 | 60% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 10% | 21% | 21% | 29% | 15% | 4% |
| 83 of 140 | 59% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 7% | 20% | 18% | 30% | 18% | 6% |
| 82 of 140 | 59% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 5% | 18% | 14% | 30% | 23% | 9% |
| 81 of 140 | 58% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 4% | 16% | 12% | 30% | 26% | 13% |
| 80 of 140 | 57% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 8% | 26% | 29% | 19% |
| 79 of 140 | 56% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 1% | 13% | 6% | 23% | 30% | 26% |
| 78 of 140 | 56% | 87 | 75 | <1% | 1% | 11% | 4% | 19% | 32% | 33% |
| 77 of 140 | 55% | 86 | 76 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 16% | 30% | 42% |
| 76 of 140 | 54% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 8% | 2% | 12% | 26% | 52% |
| 75 of 140 | 54% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | 8% | 23% | 61% |
| 74 of 140 | 53% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 5% | 19% | 69% |
| 73 of 140 | 52% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | 4% | 16% | 76% |
| 72 of 140 | 51% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 2% | 11% | 83% |
| 71 of 140 | 51% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 88% |
| 70 of 140 | 50% | 79 | 83 | <1% | <1% | 2% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 92% |
| 69 of 140 | 49% | 78 | 84 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 95% |
| 60 of 140 | 43% | 69 | 93 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 50 of 140 | 36% | 59 | 103 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 140 | 29% | 49 | 113 | X | <1% | <1% | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 140 | 21% | 39 | 123 | X | X | <1% | X | X | X | >99% |
| 20 of 140 | 14% | 29 | 133 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 140 | 7% | 19 | 143 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 140 | 0% | 9 | 153 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |