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Sat Apr 18 1:15 am

MLB - Week 4 of 27

Red Sox What If?

The Red Sox What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Red Sox play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Red Sox What If?

Next Game - Tigers (10‑10)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Win Next Game 9 11 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 64%
Current Standings 8 11 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 64%
Lose Next Game 8 12 3% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 66%


Current Series - Tigers (10‑10) - 3 Remaining Games

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
Red Sox Sweeps 11 11 4% 5% 5% 8% 8% 7% 62%
Current Standings 8 11 4% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 64%
Tigers Sweeps 8 14 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 67%


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Bye
 2*
First Round Bye
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7
143 of 143 100% 151 11 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
140 of 143 98% 148 14 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
130 of 143 91% 138 24 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
120 of 143 84% 128 34 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
110 of 143 77% 118 44 97% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
108 of 143 76% 116 46 94% 5% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1%
107 of 143 75% 115 47 92% 6% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
106 of 143 74% 114 48 89% 8% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
105 of 143 73% 113 49 85% 11% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1%
104 of 143 73% 112 50 81% 14% 1% 4% <1% <1% <1%
103 of 143 72% 111 51 76% 17% 1% 6% <1% <1% <1%
102 of 143 71% 110 52 71% 20% 1% 8% <1% <1% <1%
101 of 143 71% 109 53 64% 24% 2% 10% <1% <1% <1%
100 of 143 70% 108 54 58% 27% 3% 12% <1% <1% <1%
99 of 143 69% 107 55 52% 29% 4% 15% 1% <1% <1%
98 of 143 69% 106 56 45% 32% 5% 18% 1% <1% <1%
97 of 143 68% 105 57 37% 34% 6% 20% 2% <1% <1%
96 of 143 67% 104 58 31% 34% 9% 24% 3% <1% <1%
95 of 143 66% 103 59 25% 34% 10% 27% 4% <1% <1%
94 of 143 66% 102 60 20% 34% 12% 28% 6% <1% <1%
93 of 143 65% 101 61 15% 32% 14% 32% 7% 1% <1%
92 of 143 64% 100 62 11% 29% 15% 33% 11% 1% <1%
91 of 143 64% 99 63 8% 27% 17% 33% 13% 2% <1%
90 of 143 63% 98 64 5% 23% 18% 34% 17% 3% <1%
89 of 143 62% 97 65 4% 19% 18% 33% 21% 4% 1%
88 of 143 62% 96 66 2% 17% 19% 31% 24% 6% 1%
87 of 143 61% 95 67 2% 13% 19% 28% 27% 9% 1%
86 of 143 60% 94 68 1% 10% 19% 26% 30% 12% 2%
85 of 143 59% 93 69 1% 8% 19% 22% 32% 15% 4%
84 of 143 59% 92 70 <1% 6% 17% 19% 31% 20% 7%
83 of 143 58% 91 71 <1% 4% 16% 15% 32% 24% 10%
82 of 143 57% 90 72 <1% 3% 14% 12% 30% 28% 14%
81 of 143 57% 89 73 <1% 2% 12% 8% 27% 30% 20%
80 of 143 56% 88 74 <1% 1% 11% 6% 23% 31% 27%
79 of 143 55% 87 75 <1% 1% 9% 4% 20% 31% 35%
78 of 143 55% 86 76 <1% 1% 8% 3% 16% 30% 43%
77 of 143 54% 85 77 <1% <1% 7% 2% 12% 28% 52%
76 of 143 53% 84 78 <1% <1% 6% 1% 9% 25% 60%
75 of 143 52% 83 79 <1% <1% 4% 1% 6% 20% 68%
74 of 143 52% 82 80 <1% <1% 4% <1% 4% 16% 76%
73 of 143 51% 81 81 <1% <1% 3% <1% 3% 13% 82%
72 of 143 50% 80 82 <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 8% 87%
71 of 143 50% 79 83 <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 6% 91%
70 of 143 49% 78 84 <1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 4% 94%
60 of 143 42% 68 94 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
50 of 143 35% 58 104 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
40 of 143 28% 48 114 X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
30 of 143 21% 38 124 X X <1% X X X >99%
20 of 143 14% 28 134 X X X X X X 100%
10 of 143 7% 18 144 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 143 0% 8 154 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs