The Red Sox What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Red Sox play future games. These games include either the next game, games of the current series, or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Win Next Game | 15 | 12 | 6% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 52% |
| Current Standings | 14 | 12 | 6% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 53% |
| Lose Next Game | 14 | 13 | 5% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 55% |
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | |
| Red Sox Sweeps | 17 | 12 | 7% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 51% |
| Current Standings | 14 | 12 | 6% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 53% |
| Cubs Sweeps | 14 | 15 | 4% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 56% |
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | 1* First Round Bye |
2* First Round Bye |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | ||
| 136 of 136 | 100% | 150 | 12 | >99% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 130 of 136 | 96% | 144 | 18 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 120 of 136 | 88% | 134 | 28 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 110 of 136 | 81% | 124 | 38 | 97% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 108 of 136 | 79% | 122 | 40 | 95% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 107 of 136 | 79% | 121 | 41 | 93% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 106 of 136 | 78% | 120 | 42 | 92% | 7% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 of 136 | 77% | 119 | 43 | 89% | 9% | <1% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 104 of 136 | 76% | 118 | 44 | 87% | 11% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 103 of 136 | 76% | 117 | 45 | 85% | 13% | <1% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 102 of 136 | 75% | 116 | 46 | 82% | 14% | <1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 101 of 136 | 74% | 115 | 47 | 79% | 16% | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 100 of 136 | 74% | 114 | 48 | 75% | 19% | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 99 of 136 | 73% | 113 | 49 | 71% | 22% | <1% | 8% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 98 of 136 | 72% | 112 | 50 | 67% | 23% | <1% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 97 of 136 | 71% | 111 | 51 | 61% | 26% | 1% | 12% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 96 of 136 | 71% | 110 | 52 | 56% | 28% | 1% | 15% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 95 of 136 | 70% | 109 | 53 | 51% | 29% | 2% | 18% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 94 of 136 | 69% | 108 | 54 | 44% | 32% | 2% | 21% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 93 of 136 | 68% | 107 | 55 | 38% | 33% | 3% | 25% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 92 of 136 | 68% | 106 | 56 | 33% | 34% | 4% | 27% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 91 of 136 | 67% | 105 | 57 | 28% | 34% | 5% | 30% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 90 of 136 | 66% | 104 | 58 | 23% | 33% | 6% | 33% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 89 of 136 | 65% | 103 | 59 | 18% | 33% | 7% | 36% | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 88 of 136 | 65% | 102 | 60 | 13% | 31% | 8% | 38% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 87 of 136 | 64% | 101 | 61 | 10% | 28% | 9% | 39% | 13% | 1% | <1% |
| 86 of 136 | 63% | 100 | 62 | 7% | 26% | 10% | 39% | 16% | 2% | <1% |
| 85 of 136 | 63% | 99 | 63 | 5% | 22% | 11% | 39% | 20% | 3% | <1% |
| 84 of 136 | 62% | 98 | 64 | 4% | 19% | 12% | 36% | 24% | 5% | <1% |
| 83 of 136 | 61% | 97 | 65 | 2% | 15% | 12% | 34% | 28% | 8% | 1% |
| 82 of 136 | 60% | 96 | 66 | 2% | 12% | 12% | 31% | 31% | 11% | 2% |
| 81 of 136 | 60% | 95 | 67 | 1% | 9% | 12% | 27% | 34% | 14% | 3% |
| 80 of 136 | 59% | 94 | 68 | 1% | 7% | 11% | 24% | 35% | 18% | 5% |
| 79 of 136 | 58% | 93 | 69 | <1% | 5% | 10% | 19% | 35% | 23% | 7% |
| 78 of 136 | 57% | 92 | 70 | <1% | 3% | 9% | 15% | 35% | 27% | 11% |
| 77 of 136 | 57% | 91 | 71 | <1% | 2% | 8% | 11% | 32% | 31% | 16% |
| 76 of 136 | 56% | 90 | 72 | <1% | 2% | 7% | 8% | 28% | 33% | 22% |
| 75 of 136 | 55% | 89 | 73 | <1% | 1% | 5% | 7% | 24% | 34% | 29% |
| 74 of 136 | 54% | 88 | 74 | <1% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 20% | 34% | 37% |
| 73 of 136 | 54% | 87 | 75 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 3% | 16% | 31% | 46% |
| 72 of 136 | 53% | 86 | 76 | <1% | <1% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 28% | 55% |
| 71 of 136 | 52% | 85 | 77 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 1% | 8% | 24% | 65% |
| 70 of 136 | 51% | 84 | 78 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 20% | 72% |
| 69 of 136 | 51% | 83 | 79 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 3% | 16% | 80% |
| 68 of 136 | 50% | 82 | 80 | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 2% | 11% | 86% |
| 67 of 136 | 49% | 81 | 81 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 7% | 91% |
| 66 of 136 | 49% | 80 | 82 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 94% |
| 60 of 136 | 44% | 74 | 88 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 50 of 136 | 37% | 64 | 98 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 40 of 136 | 29% | 54 | 108 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 30 of 136 | 22% | 44 | 118 | X | X | <1% | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 20 of 136 | 15% | 34 | 128 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 10 of 136 | 7% | 24 | 138 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |
| 0 of 136 | 0% | 14 | 148 | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |