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MLB - Week 24 of 27

Yankees What If?

The Yankees What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Yankees play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Yankees What If?

Next Game - Orioles (52-86)

  Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L 1* 2* 3 4 5
Win Next Game 87 52 66% 3% < 1% 30% 1%
Current Standings 86 52 63% 4% < 1% 32% 1%
Lose Next Game 86 53 56% 4% < 1% 38% 2%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  1* 2* 3* 4 5
Best Case Scenario 64% 3% < 1% 32% 1%
Current Standings 63% 4% < 1% 32% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 55% 5% < 1% 38% 2%
Best Case Scenario
   Yankees beats Orioles
Worst Case Scenario
   Orioles beats Yankees
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L 1* 2* 3 4 5
24 of 24 100% 110 52 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 24 83% 106 56 100% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 24 63% 101 61 93% 2% < 1% 6% ^
14 of 24 58% 100 62 80% 4% < 1% 16% < 1%
13 of 24 54% 99 63 62% 7% < 1% 32% < 1%
12 of 24 50% 98 64 38% 9% < 1% 53% < 1%
11 of 24 46% 97 65 19% 9% < 1% 71% < 1%
10 of 24 42% 96 66 7% 6% < 1% 84% 3%
9 of 24 38% 95 67 2% 3% < 1% 86% 9%
8 of 24 33% 94 68 < 1% 1% < 1% 75% 23%
7 of 24 29% 93 69 < 1% < 1% < 1% 56% 44%
6 of 24 25% 92 70 < 1% < 1% < 1% 34% 66%
5 of 24 21% 91 71 < 1% < 1% < 1% 14% 86%
0 of 24 0% 86 76 X X X < 1% > 99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • * denotes home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs

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