The Most Important Games for the Fire are those games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Fire final playoff standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. Fire fans can use this table to identify the most interesting games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
Fire Resultant Playoff Probabilities | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |||
| Fire (8‑9‑4) vs Atlanta United (4‑10‑7) |
44 | Fire Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 30% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Atlanta United Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 48% | ||
| Fire (8‑9‑4) vs CF Montréal (3‑13‑6) |
41 | Fire Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 15% | 17% | 17% | 32% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| CF Montréal Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 10% | 14% | 18% | 49% | ||
| Sporting KC (6‑11‑5) vs NY City FC (9‑8‑4) |
8 | Sporting KC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 38% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 41% | ||
| Atlanta United (4‑10‑7) vs Charlotte FC (9‑11‑2) |
8 | Atlanta United Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 38% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Charlotte FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 16% | 18% | 40% | ||
| D.C. United (4‑11‑7) vs Charlotte FC (9‑11‑2) |
6 | D.C. United Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 37% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Charlotte FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Inter Miami CF (11‑3‑5) vs Red Bulls (8‑8‑6) |
6 | Inter Miami CF Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 38% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Red Bulls Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 17% | 41% | ||
| Real Salt Lake (7‑10‑4) vs FC Cincinnati (13‑6‑3) |
3 | Real Salt Lake Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| FC Cincinnati Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Inter Miami CF (11‑3‑5) vs FC Cincinnati (13‑6‑3) |
3 | Inter Miami CF Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| FC Cincinnati Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 40% | ||
| Orlando City SC (9‑5‑8) vs Revolution (6‑8‑7) |
2 | Orlando City SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 13% | 17% | 18% | 38% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Revolution Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 16% | 41% | ||
| Revolution (6‑8‑7) vs Red Bulls (8‑8‑6) |
2 | Revolution Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 13% | 15% | 16% | 40% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Red Bulls Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 40% | ||
| Nashville SC (12‑5‑5) vs Crew (11‑3‑8) |
2 | Nashville SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Crew Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| D.C. United (4‑11‑7) vs Crew (11‑3‑8) |
2 | D.C. United Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Crew Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 39% | ||
| Orlando City SC (9‑5‑8) vs NY City FC (9‑8‑4) |
1 | Orlando City SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| NY City FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 41% | ||
| San Diego FC (13‑6‑3) vs Toronto FC (4‑11‑6) |
1 | San Diego FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Toronto FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 40% | ||
| Union (13‑5‑4) vs Dynamo (7‑10‑5) |
1 | Union Wins | <1% | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Dynamo Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 15% | 18% | 40% | ||
| Union (13‑5‑4) vs CF Montréal (3‑13‑6) |
1 | Union Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| CF Montréal Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 16% | 17% | 40% | ||
| Toronto FC (4‑11‑6) vs Nashville SC (12‑5‑5) |
0 | Toronto FC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 15% | 17% | 39% |
| Current Probabilities | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||
| Nashville SC Wins | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 17% | 39% | ||