The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 59% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 11% | 67% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 5 | 4 | 16 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 70% |
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 58% |
| Current Standings | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 11% | 67% |
| Worst Case Scenario | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 10% | 71% |
|
Best Case Scenario D.C. United beats NY City FC Fire beats Charlotte FC Earthquakes beats Revolution |
Worst Case Scenario NY City FC beats D.C. United Charlotte FC beats Fire Revolution beats Earthquakes |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
| 22 of 22 | 100% | 26 | 4 | 4 | 82 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 20 of 22 | 91% | 24 | 6 | 4 | 76 | 91% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 19 of 22 | 86% | 23 | 7 | 4 | 73 | 77% | 22% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 18 of 22 | 82% | 22 | 8 | 4 | 70 | 53% | 39% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 17 of 22 | 77% | 21 | 9 | 4 | 67 | 26% | 45% | 24% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 16 of 22 | 73% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 64 | 8% | 30% | 38% | 20% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 15 of 22 | 68% | 19 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 1% | 10% | 29% | 35% | 20% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 14 of 22 | 64% | 18 | 12 | 4 | 58 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 26% | 35% | 22% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 | 13 | 4 | 55 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 21% | 34% | 26% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 of 22 | 55% | 16 | 14 | 4 | 52 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 5% | 18% | 33% | 30% | 12% | 2% |
| 11 of 22 | 50% | 15 | 15 | 4 | 49 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 34% | 33% | 15% |
| 10 of 22 | 45% | 14 | 16 | 4 | 46 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 15% | 36% | 46% |
| 9 of 22 | 41% | 13 | 17 | 4 | 43 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 18% | 79% |
| 8 of 22 | 36% | 12 | 18 | 4 | 40 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | 95% |
| 5 of 22 | 23% | 9 | 21 | 4 | 31 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 22 | 0% | 4 | 26 | 4 | 16 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |