PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Apr 14 9:15 pm

MLS - Week 9 of 35

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - Real Salt Lake (3‑2‑3)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10
Win Next Game 3 3 3 12 2% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 36%
Current Standings 2 3 3 9 2% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 41%
Lose Next Game 2 4 3 9 1% 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 44%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10
Best Case Scenario 3% 5% 6% 8% 9% 8% 9% 9% 9% 35%
Current Standings 2% 4% 5% 7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 41%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 3% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 45%
Best Case Scenario
   Orlando City SC beats CF MontrĂ©al
   Timbers beats Crew
   Fire beats Real Salt Lake
Worst Case Scenario
   CF MontrĂ©al beats Orlando City SC
   Crew beats Timbers
   Real Salt Lake beats Fire
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10
26 of 26 100% 28 3 3 87 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 26 96% 27 4 3 84 98% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 26 92% 26 5 3 81 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 26 88% 25 6 3 78 85% 14% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 26 85% 24 7 3 75 72% 27% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
21 of 26 81% 23 8 3 72 54% 40% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
20 of 26 77% 22 9 3 69 34% 48% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 26 73% 21 10 3 66 17% 43% 31% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 26 69% 20 11 3 63 6% 28% 40% 21% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 26 65% 19 12 3 60 1% 12% 33% 36% 15% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 26 62% 18 13 3 57 <1% 3% 16% 35% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 26 58% 17 14 3 54 <1% <1% 4% 18% 35% 30% 11% 2% <1% <1%
14 of 26 54% 16 15 3 51 <1% <1% <1% 4% 18% 34% 29% 12% 2% <1%
13 of 26 50% 15 16 3 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 16% 33% 31% 14% 3%
12 of 26 46% 14 17 3 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 32% 32% 19%
11 of 26 42% 13 18 3 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 29% 55%
10 of 26 38% 12 19 3 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 87%
5 of 26 19% 7 24 3 24 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 26 0% 2 29 3 9 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs