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Sun Mar 15 9:30 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 38

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Fire What If?

Next Game - Union (0‑4)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 2 2 1 7 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 34%
Current Standings 1 2 1 4 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 44%
Lose Next Game 1 3 1 4 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 50%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 34%
Current Standings 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 44%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 50%
Best Case Scenario
   Fire beats Union
 Worst Case Scenario
   Union beats Fire
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
30 of 30 100% 31 2 1 94 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 26 7 1 79 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 30 67% 21 12 1 64 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 30 63% 20 13 1 61 75% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 30 60% 19 14 1 58 46% 40% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 30 57% 18 15 1 55 14% 37% 33% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 17 16 1 52 1% 10% 27% 33% 20% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 30 50% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% 3% 13% 27% 30% 19% 6% 1% <1%
14 of 30 47% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 24% 31% 22% 11%
13 of 30 43% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 20% 72%
10 of 30 33% 11 22 1 34 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 30 17% 6 27 1 19 X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 30 0% 1 32 1 4 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs