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MLS - Week 1 of 31

Fire What If?

The Fire What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Fire play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Fire What If?

Next Game - Red Bulls (0-0)

   Resultant Record Eastern Conference Western Conference Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L T Pts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Win Next Game 1 0 0 3 13% 13%     6% 6% 6% 7% 49%
Current Standings 0 0 0 0 13% 13%     6% 6% 6% 6% 50%
Lose Next Game 0 1 0 0 2% 4%     4% 5% 5% 4% 78%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Eastern Conference Western Conference Wildcard No Playoffs
  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 13% 13%     6% 6% 6% 6% 49%
Current Standings 13% 13%     6% 6% 6% 6% 50%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 3%     4% 5% 5% 4% 78%
Best Case Scenario
   Fire beats Red Bulls
Worst Case Scenario
   Red Bulls beats Fire
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Eastern Conference Western Conference Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T Pts 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
30 of 30 100% 30 0 0 90 100% ^     ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 25 5 0 75 > 99% < 1%     < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 30 67% 20 10 0 60 > 99% < 1%     < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
18 of 30 60% 18 12 0 54 88% 11%     1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
17 of 30 57% 17 13 0 51 54% 36%     9% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
16 of 30 53% 16 14 0 48 14% 31%     20% 22% 10% 2% < 1%
15 of 30 50% 15 15 0 45 1% 8%     3% 12% 21% 21% 33%
10 of 30 33% 10 20 0 30 < 1% < 1%     < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
5 of 30 17% 5 25 0 15 X X     X X X X 100%
0 of 30 0% 0 30 0 0 X X     X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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