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Sun Mar 8 10:45 pm

MLS - Week 4 of 38

Rapids What If?

The Rapids What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Rapids play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Rapids What If?

Next Game - NY City FC (2‑0‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 3 1 0 9 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 27%
Current Standings 2 1 0 6 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 36%
Lose Next Game 2 2 0 6 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 40%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 27%
Current Standings 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 36%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 40%
Best Case Scenario
   Rapids beats NY City FC
 Worst Case Scenario
   NY City FC beats Rapids
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
31 of 31 100% 33 1 0 99 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 32 2 0 96 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 27 7 0 81 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
20 of 31 65% 22 12 0 66 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 31 61% 21 13 0 63 77% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 31 58% 20 14 0 60 49% 39% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 31 55% 19 15 0 57 17% 40% 31% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 31 52% 18 16 0 54 2% 13% 30% 32% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 31 48% 17 17 0 51 <1% 1% 5% 17% 30% 29% 14% 4% 1% <1%
14 of 31 45% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 14% 27% 28% 18% 7%
13 of 31 42% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 25% 62%
10 of 31 32% 12 22 0 36 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 31 16% 7 27 0 21 X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 2 32 0 6 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs