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Mon Feb 23 1:15 am

MLS - Week 1 of 38

Rapids What If?

The Rapids What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Rapids play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Rapids What If?

Next Game - Timbers (1‑0)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 1 0 3 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 40%
Current Standings 0 1 0 0 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 47%
Lose Next Game 0 2 0 0 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 56%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 39%
Current Standings 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 47%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 58%
Best Case Scenario
   Rapids beats Timbers
   Atlanta United beats Earthquakes
   Nashville SC beats FC Dallas
 Worst Case Scenario
   Timbers beats Rapids
   Earthquakes beats Atlanta United
   FC Dallas beats Nashville SC
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
33 of 33 100% 33 1 0 99 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 30 4 0 90 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 33 76% 25 9 0 75 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
22 of 33 67% 22 12 0 66 95% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
21 of 33 64% 21 13 0 63 83% 16% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 33 61% 20 14 0 60 59% 34% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 33 58% 19 15 0 57 26% 43% 24% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 33 55% 18 16 0 54 4% 21% 34% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 33 52% 17 17 0 51 <1% 2% 9% 24% 31% 22% 9% 2% <1% <1%
16 of 33 48% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 20% 29% 25% 12% 4%
15 of 33 45% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 28% 50%
10 of 33 30% 10 24 0 30 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 33 15% 5 29 0 15 X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 33 0% 0 34 0 0 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs