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Mon Dec 9 10:45 pm

NBA - Week 9 of 25

Thunder What If?

The Thunder What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Thunder play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Thunder What If?

Next Game - Magic (17‑9)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in
 8**
Play-in
 9**
Play-in
 10**
Play-in
 11
Win Next Game 19 5 51% 18% 11% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 18 5 48% 18% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 18 6 45% 19% 12% 8% 6% 4% 3% 1% 1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in
 8**
Play-in
 9**
Play-in
 10**
Play-in
 11
Best Case Scenario 52% 18% 11% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 48% 18% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 45% 19% 11% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Thunder beats Magic
   Pelicans beats Rockets
 Worst Case Scenario
   Magic beats Thunder
   Rockets beats Pelicans
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L 1*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 2*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4*
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7**
Play-in
 8**
Play-in
 9**
Play-in
 10**
Play-in
 11
57 of 57 100% 75 5 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
50 of 57 88% 68 12 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
42 of 57 74% 60 20 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
41 of 57 72% 59 21 89% 11% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
40 of 57 70% 58 22 81% 18% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
39 of 57 68% 57 23 74% 24% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
38 of 57 67% 56 24 61% 33% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
37 of 57 65% 55 25 49% 41% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
36 of 57 63% 54 26 36% 45% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
35 of 57 61% 53 27 25% 44% 25% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
34 of 57 60% 52 28 15% 39% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
33 of 57 58% 51 29 8% 31% 37% 19% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
32 of 57 56% 50 30 5% 22% 35% 27% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
31 of 57 54% 49 31 2% 12% 30% 32% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
30 of 57 53% 48 32 1% 7% 21% 33% 26% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
29 of 57 51% 47 33 <1% 3% 13% 28% 31% 19% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1%
28 of 57 49% 46 34 <1% 1% 7% 20% 31% 26% 11% 3% <1% <1% <1%
27 of 57 47% 45 35 <1% <1% 3% 12% 25% 31% 20% 7% 1% <1% <1%
26 of 57 46% 44 36 <1% <1% 1% 6% 17% 29% 27% 15% 4% 1% <1%
25 of 57 44% 43 37 <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 23% 31% 22% 9% 2% <1%
24 of 57 42% 42 38 <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 15% 28% 29% 17% 5% 1%
23 of 57 40% 41 39 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 21% 30% 25% 11% 3%
22 of 57 39% 40 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 13% 26% 31% 19% 7%
21 of 57 37% 39 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 20% 31% 27% 14%
20 of 57 35% 38 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 27% 33% 26%
19 of 57 33% 37 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 32% 41%
18 of 57 32% 36 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 27% 59%
17 of 57 30% 35 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 74%
16 of 57 28% 34 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 85%
15 of 57 26% 33 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 93%
10 of 57 18% 28 52 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 57 0% 18 62 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • ** denotes Play-in Tournament Participant