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NBA Post Season Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the playoffs? The NBA Post Season Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoff rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.


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NBA Post Season Probabilities

  Record  Current Series NBA Champions NBA Finals Conference Championship Round 2 Round 1
Team Conference W L
Hawks Eastern 10 2   11% 18% 32% 54% 90%
Suns Western 10 3   8% 15% 28% 50% 86%
Mavericks Western 9 3   8% 15% 27% 48% 82%
Nuggets Western 8 3   8% 14% 26% 45% 79%
Magic Eastern 9 3   8% 13% 25% 45% 80%
Lakers Western 9 3   7% 14% 26% 45% 80%
Celtics Eastern 9 3   7% 13% 25% 46% 82%
Bucks Eastern 6 3   7% 12% 22% 39% 67%
Trail Blazers Western 9 4   5% 11% 22% 42% 77%
Heat Eastern 7 4   5% 9% 18% 35% 67%
Cavaliers Eastern 8 4   5% 10% 19% 38% 72%
Pacers Eastern 5 4   4% 7% 15% 30% 57%
Rockets Western 7 5   3% 7% 15% 32% 63%
Bulls Eastern 6 5   3% 6% 13% 28% 59%
Kings Western 5 5   2% 6% 12% 26% 51%
Thunder Western 6 6   2% 5% 11% 24% 54%
Jazz Western 6 6   2% 5% 11% 25% 53%
Sixers Eastern 5 6   1% 4% 9% 22% 49%
Spurs Western 4 6   1% 3% 8% 19% 42%
Pistons Eastern 5 7   1% 2% 7% 18% 44%
Raptors Eastern 5 7   1% 3% 7% 19% 47%
Hornets Western 5 8   1% 2% 5% 15% 40%
Wizards Eastern 3 7   <1% 1% 4% 12% 34%
Warriors Western 3 8   <1% 1% 4% 10% 29%
Grizzlies Western 3 8   <1% 1% 3% 9% 28%
Bobcats Eastern 3 8   <1% 1% 3% 9% 29%
Clippers Western 4 9   <1% 1% 3% 9% 29%
Knicks Eastern 2 9   <1% <1% 1% 5% 19%
Timberwolves Western 1 11   <1% <1% <1% 1% 8%
Nets Eastern 0 12   <1% <1% <1% 1% 4%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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