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Sun Sep 24 3:45 am

NCAA Football - Week 5 of 13

Illinois Most Likely Playoff Participation Outcomes - Lose 1

If it loses one of its remaining games, Illinois will make the 2023 NCAA Football Playoffs <1% of the times. The two tables below show the most likely outcomes when the team makes and misses the playoffs if that loss occurs. (This content is currently in an experimental state.)

If it loses one of its remaining games, Illinois makes the playoffs <1% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to Illinois making the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (53)Illinois opponents win (SOS related)
  • (10)Washington opponents lose (SOS related)
  • (2)Ohio St. loses 4 or more games
  • (1)Michigan loses 3 or more games
Illinois Most Likely Outcome - Lose 1 - Making the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Penn St. (3) Big 10Big 10 121 13 0 - - 100%
2 Florida St. (7) ACCACC 105 12 1 - - 100%
3 N.C. State (51) ACCACC 96 11 2 - - 100%
4 Illinois (53) Big 10Big 10 93 10 3 - - 100%
 
5 Marshall (36) SunbeltSunbelt 92 13 1 - - X
6 Texas A&M (25) SECSEC 92 12 1 - - X
7 Washington (10) PAC 12PAC 12 91 11 2 - - X
8 Florida (18) SECSEC 90 9 3 - - X
9 Oregon (4) PAC 12PAC 12 88 9 3 - - X
10 Missouri (17) SECSEC 88 11 1 - - X




If it loses one of its remaining games, Illinois misses the playoffs >99% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to Illinois missing the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • None Found
Illinois Most Likely Outcome - Lose 1 - Missing the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Georgia (6) SECSEC 113 12 1 - - 100%
2 Washington (10) PAC 12PAC 12 105 12 1 - - 100%
3 Penn St. (3) Big 10Big 10 104 11 2 - - 100%
4 Michigan (1) Big 10Big 10 100 10 2 - - 100%
 
5 Ohio St. (2) Big 10Big 10 100 10 2 - - X
6 Florida (18) SECSEC 92 9 3 - - X
7 Oregon (4) PAC 12PAC 12 92 10 2 - - X
8 North Carolina (20) ACCACC 91 12 1 - - X
9 Utah (9) PAC 12PAC 12 89 10 2 - - X
10 Florida St. (7) ACCACC 89 10 3 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot