PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 5 6:30 am

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. New Click on a team's probability for more detail information. New

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Michigan Big 10Big 10 107 12 1 - - 100%
2 Alabama SECSEC 107 12 1 - - 100%
3 Cincinnati American AthleticAm. Athletic 104 13 0 - - 100%
4 Georgia SECSEC 101 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 99 11 1 - - X
6 Baylor Big 12Big 12 99 11 2 - - X
7 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 97 10 2 - - X
8 Ole Miss SECSEC 96 10 2 - - X
9 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 96 11 2 - - X
10 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 92 10 2 - - X
11 BYU NCAA IndependentsInd. 92 10 2 - - X
12 Pittsburgh ACCACC 91 11 2 - - X
13 Oregon PAC 12PAC 12 89 10 3 - - X
14 Oklahoma Big 12Big 12 88 10 2 - - X
15 Utah PAC 12PAC 12 88 10 3 - - X
16 Iowa Big 10Big 10 86 10 3 - - X
17 N.C. State ACCACC 82 9 3 - - X
18 Wake Forest ACCACC 81 10 3 - - X
19 Clemson ACCACC 79 9 3 - - X
20 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 78 12 1 - - X
21 Arkansas SECSEC 77 8 4 - - X
22 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 76 11 2 - - X
23 Houston American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 11 2 - - X
24 Kentucky SECSEC 76 9 3 - - X
25 UTSA Conference USAConf. USA 74 12 1 - - X
26 Texas A&M SECSEC 73 8 4 - - X
27 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 72 7 5 - - X
28 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 72 8 4 - - X
29 Purdue Big 10Big 10 72 8 4 - - X
30 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 71 8 4 - - X
31 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 70 10 3 - - X
32 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 67 7 5 - - X
33 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 67 9 3 - - X
34 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 67 9 3 - - X
35 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 67 7 5 - - X
36 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 66 10 3 - - X
37 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 65 8 3 - - X
38 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 64 7 5 - - X
39 Maryland Big 10Big 10 64 6 6 - - X
40 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 64 7 5 - - X
41 Miami ACCACC 63 7 5 - - X
42 Northern Illinois MACMAC 63 9 4 - - X
43 Tennessee SECSEC 62 7 5 - - X
44 Auburn SECSEC 61 6 6 - - X
45 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 60 6 6 - - X
46 UCLA PAC 12PAC 12 60 8 4 - - X
47 LSU SECSEC 59 6 6 - - X
48 SMU American AthleticAm. Athletic 59 8 4 - - X
49 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 59 8 4 - - X
50 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 57 6 6 - - X
51 UAB Conference USAConf. USA 57 8 4 - - X
52 Arizona St. PAC 12PAC 12 56 8 4 - - X
53 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 56 10 2 - - X
54 UCF American AthleticAm. Athletic 56 8 4 - - X
55 Texas Big 12Big 12 56 5 7 - - X
56 Central Michigan MACMAC 56 8 4 - - X
57 Virginia ACCACC 55 6 6 - - X
58 Western Michigan MACMAC 54 7 5 - - X
59 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 53 8 5 - - X
60 South Carolina SECSEC 53 6 6 - - X
61 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 53 7 5 - - X
62 Louisville ACCACC 53 6 6 - - X
63 Washington St. PAC 12PAC 12 53 7 5 - - X
64 North Carolina ACCACC 53 6 6 - - X
65 Oregon St. PAC 12PAC 12 53 7 5 - - X
66 Missouri SECSEC 53 6 6 - - X
67 Illinois Big 10Big 10 52 5 7 - - X
68 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 51 6 7 - - X
69 Florida SECSEC 50 6 6 - - X
70 TCU Big 12Big 12 49 5 7 - - X
71 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 49 7 5 - - X
72 Liberty NCAA IndependentsInd. 49 7 5 - - X
73 Virginia Tech ACCACC 48 6 6 - - X
74 Kent State MACMAC 48 7 6 - - X
75 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 6 6 - - X
76 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 45 7 5 - - X
77 Marshall Conference USAConf. USA 43 7 5 - - X
78 Boston College ACCACC 43 6 6 - - X
79 Toledo MACMAC 43 7 5 - - X
80 Florida St. ACCACC 43 5 7 - - X
81 Ball State MACMAC 43 6 6 - - X
82 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 6 6 - - X
83 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 42 6 6 - - X
84 Syracuse ACCACC 42 5 7 - - X
85 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 42 7 5 - - X
86 Miami OH MACMAC 42 6 6 - - X
87 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 41 3 9 - - X
88 USC PAC 12PAC 12 40 5 7 - - X
89 Indiana Big 10Big 10 39 2 10 - - X
90 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 38 6 7 - - X
91 North Texas Conference USAConf. USA 37 6 6 - - X
92 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 36 3 8 - - X
93 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 35 5 7 - - X
94 Georgia Tech ACCACC 33 3 9 - - X
95 Old Dominion Conference USAConf. USA 32 6 6 - - X
96 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 32 3 9 - - X
97 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 32 6 6 - - X
98 Colorado PAC 12PAC 12 30 4 8 - - X
99 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 30 5 7 - - X
100 Stanford PAC 12PAC 12 28 3 9 - - X
101 Rice Conference USAConf. USA 28 4 8 - - X
102 Florida Atlantic Conference USAConf. USA 27 5 7 - - X
103 Kansas Big 12Big 12 27 2 10 - - X
104 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 25 5 7 - - X
105 Washington PAC 12PAC 12 25 4 8 - - X
106 California PAC 12PAC 12 24 4 8 - - X
107 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 23 2 10 - - X
108 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 22 3 9 - - X
109 Charlotte Conference USAConf. USA 22 5 7 - - X
110 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 21 3 9 - - X
111 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 21 4 9 - - X
112 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 21 2 10 - - X
113 Duke ACCACC 20 3 9 - - X
114 Bowling Green MACMAC 20 4 8 - - X
115 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 20 2 10 - - X
116 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 19 4 8 - - X
117 Buffalo MACMAC 19 4 8 - - X
118 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 19 3 10 - - X
119 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 18 3 9 - - X
120 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 18 3 9 - - X
121 Vanderbilt SECSEC 16 2 10 - - X
122 New Mexico St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 14 2 10 - - X
123 Southern Miss Conference USAConf. USA 13 3 9 - - X
124 Ohio MACMAC 11 3 9 - - X
125 Arizona PAC 12PAC 12 8 1 11 - - X
126 Akron MACMAC 5 2 10 - - X
127 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 5 2 10 - - X
128 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 2 1 11 - - X
129 UMass NCAA IndependentsInd. -2 1 11 - - X
130 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA -2 2 11 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot