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NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Oregon Big 10Big 10 113 13 0 - - 100%
2 Georgia SECSEC 111 11 2 - - 100%
3 Texas SECSEC 110 11 2 - - 100%
4 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 108 11 2 - - 100%
5 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 106 11 1 - - 100%
6 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 105 10 2 - - 100%
7 Tennessee SECSEC 103 10 2 - - 100%
8 Indiana Big 10Big 10 101 11 1 - - 100%
9 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 100 12 1 - - 100%
10 SMU ACCACC 98 11 2 - - 100%
11 Alabama SECSEC 97 9 3 - - X
12 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 95 11 2 - - 100%
 
13 Miami ACCACC 93 10 2 - - X
14 Ole Miss SECSEC 92 9 3 - - X
15 South Carolina SECSEC 90 9 3 - - X
16 Clemson ACCACC 89 10 3 - - 100%
17 BYU Big 12Big 12 87 10 2 - - X
18 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 85 10 3 - - X
19 Missouri SECSEC 84 9 3 - - X
20 Illinois Big 10Big 10 82 9 3 - - X
21 Syracuse ACCACC 81 9 3 - - X
22 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 79 11 1 - - X
23 Colorado Big 12Big 12 77 9 3 - - X
24 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 76 10 3 - - X
25 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 10 2 - - X
26 Louisville ACCACC 73 8 4 - - X
27 Michigan Big 10Big 10 73 7 5 - - X
28 LSU SECSEC 73 8 4 - - X
29 Duke ACCACC 73 9 3 - - X
30 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 73 8 4 - - X
31 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 72 10 3 - - X
32 Baylor Big 12Big 12 71 8 4 - - X
33 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 70 8 4 - - X
34 Texas A&M SECSEC 70 8 4 - - X
35 Iowa Big 10Big 10 68 8 4 - - X
36 Georgia Tech ACCACC 68 7 5 - - X
37 Florida SECSEC 68 7 5 - - X
38 TCU Big 12Big 12 65 8 4 - - X
39 Virginia Tech ACCACC 64 6 6 - - X
40 Boston College ACCACC 64 7 5 - - X
41 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 9 4 - - X
42 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 63 7 5 - - X
43 USC Big 10Big 10 63 6 6 - - X
44 Ohio MACMAC 62 10 3 - - X
45 Pittsburgh ACCACC 62 7 5 - - X
46 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 8 3 - - X
47 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 62 10 3 - - X
48 Washington Big 10Big 10 61 6 6 - - X
49 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 61 8 4 - - X
50 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 60 7 5 - - X
51 Oklahoma SECSEC 59 6 6 - - X
52 UCLA Big 10Big 10 59 5 7 - - X
53 Kansas Big 12Big 12 58 5 7 - - X
54 Vanderbilt SECSEC 56 6 6 - - X
55 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 56 6 6 - - X
56 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 55 6 6 - - X
57 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 54 8 4 - - X
58 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 52 8 4 - - X
59 Miami OH MACMAC 52 8 5 - - X
60 Virginia ACCACC 51 5 7 - - X
61 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 51 5 7 - - X
62 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 51 5 7 - - X
63 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 50 8 4 - - X
64 Buffalo MACMAC 50 8 4 - - X
65 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 50 5 7 - - X
66 N.C. State ACCACC 50 6 6 - - X
67 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 50 9 3 - - X
68 Arkansas SECSEC 50 6 6 - - X
69 North Carolina ACCACC 49 6 6 - - X
70 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 49 8 4 - - X
71 California ACCACC 47 6 6 - - X
72 Bowling Green MACMAC 47 7 5 - - X
73 Northern Illinois MACMAC 47 7 5 - - X
74 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 46 9 4 - - X
75 Utah Big 12Big 12 46 5 7 - - X
76 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 45 7 5 - - X
77 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 45 7 5 - - X
78 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 45 7 5 - - X
79 Maryland Big 10Big 10 45 4 8 - - X
80 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 44 5 6 - - X
81 Houston Big 12Big 12 44 4 8 - - X
82 Toledo MACMAC 43 7 5 - - X
83 Auburn SECSEC 43 5 7 - - X
84 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 43 5 7 - - X
85 Kentucky SECSEC 43 4 8 - - X
86 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 43 8 5 - - X
87 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 7 5 - - X
88 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 42 4 8 - - X
89 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 42 8 3 - - X
90 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 42 6 6 - - X
91 UCF Big 12Big 12 41 4 8 - - X
92 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 41 6 6 - - X
93 Western Michigan MACMAC 39 6 6 - - X
94 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 39 6 6 - - X
95 Arizona Big 12Big 12 38 4 8 - - X
96 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 6 6 - - X
97 Wake Forest ACCACC 38 4 8 - - X
98 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 38 5 7 - - X
99 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 37 6 6 - - X
100 Stanford ACCACC 37 3 9 - - X
101 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 5 7 - - X
102 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 6 6 - - X
103 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 33 5 7 - - X
104 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 32 3 9 - - X
105 Florida St. ACCACC 32 2 10 - - X
106 Akron MACMAC 30 4 8 - - X
107 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 30 5 7 - - X
108 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 29 5 7 - - X
109 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 28 2 10 - - X
110 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 28 4 8 - - X
111 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 26 5 7 - - X
112 Purdue Big 10Big 10 25 1 11 - - X
113 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 24 4 8 - - X
114 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 24 3 9 - - X
115 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 23 4 8 - - X
116 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 22 3 10 - - X
117 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 21 5 7 - - X
118 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 20 3 9 - - X
119 Central Michigan MACMAC 20 4 8 - - X
120 Ball State MACMAC 18 3 9 - - X
121 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 17 3 9 - - X
122 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 16 3 9 - - X
123 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 14 5 7 - - X
124 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 12 3 9 - - X
125 UMass NCAA IndependentsInd. 10 2 10 - - X
126 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 8 3 9 - - X
127 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 7 4 8 - - X
128 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 6 3 9 - - X
129 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 5 3 9 - - X
130 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 5 3 9 - - X
131 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 4 3 9 - - X
132 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 1 1 11 - - X
133 Kent State MACMAC -1 0 12 - - X
134 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA -2 2 10 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot