PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Sep 25 3:00 am

NCAA Football - Week 4 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Tennessee SEC 87 4 0 >99% 87% 30%
2 Clemson ACC 86 4 0 >99% 89% 28%
3 Michigan Big 10 84 4 0 >99% 94% 26%
4 Wisconsin Big 10 84 4 0 >99% 93% 25%
 
5 Louisville ACC 84 4 0 >99% 89% 24%
6 Ohio St. Big 10 83 3 0 >99% 97% 24%
7 Texas A&M SEC 81 4 0 97% 62% 18%
8 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 81 4 0 98% 69% 19%
9 Stanford PAC 12 81 3 0 97% 52% 18%
10 Wake Forest ACC 81 4 0 99% 79% 17%
11 Nebraska Big 10 80 4 0 >99% 92% 18%
12 Arizona St. PAC 12 77 4 0 97% 61% 14%
13 Alabama SEC 77 4 0 97% 56% 12%
14 Washington PAC 12 76 4 0 96% 59% 13%
15 Utah PAC 12 74 4 0 96% 58% 10%
16 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 72 3 0 25% 1% 3%
17 Miami ACC 72 3 0 96% 49% 9%
18 Minnesota Big 10 72 3 0 99% 72% 10%
19 Florida St. ACC 72 3 1 92% 37% 7%
20 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 72 3 0 97% 56% 11%
21 Maryland Big 10 71 3 0 >99% 91% 11%
22 Western Michigan W. Michigan MAC 71 4 0 21% 1% 2%
23 Arkansas SEC 70 3 1 51% 5% 4%
24 Baylor Big 12 68 4 0 13% <1% 1%
25 Colorado PAC 12 68 3 1 81% 22% 5%
26 Georgia Tech ACC 67 3 1 88% 20% 4%
27 Georgia SEC 67 3 1 90% 31% 5%
28 West Virginia Big 12 67 3 0 15% <1% 1%
29 Virginia Tech ACC 67 3 1 70% 13% 4%
30 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 66 3 0 93% 43% 6%
31 Florida SEC 66 3 1 52% 7% 2%
32 Indiana Big 10 63 2 1 98% 58% 4%
33 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 63 3 0 30% 2% 1%
34 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 62 3 1 61% 9% 2%
35 North Carolina ACC 62 3 1 55% 5% 1%
36 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 61 3 0 3% <1% <1%
37 Troy Sunbelt 59 3 1 <1% X <1%
38 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 59 3 1 33% 1% 1%
39 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 58 3 1 1% X <1%
40 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 58 3 1 37% 2% 1%
41 TCU Big 12 58 3 1 2% <1% <1%
42 Michigan St. Big 10 58 2 1 87% 17% 2%
43 Toledo MAC 58 3 0 8% <1% <1%
44 UCLA PAC 12 57 2 2 36% 1% 1%
45 California PAC 12 56 2 2 36% 1% 1%
46 Ole Miss SEC 54 2 2 48% 4% <1%
47 N.C. State ACC 54 2 1 92% 40% 1%
48 Purdue Big 10 54 2 1 89% 27% 1%
49 Ball State MAC 54 3 1 <1% X <1%
50 Kansas St. Big 12 54 2 1 1% <1% <1%
51 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 53 3 1 <1% X <1%
52 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 53 2 2 <1% X <1%
53 Vanderbilt SEC 53 2 2 32% 1% <1%
54 Army Independent Ind. 53 3 1 <1% <1% <1%
55 South Carolina SEC 53 2 2 38% 2% <1%
56 Texas Tech Big 12 53 2 1 1% <1% <1%
57 Penn St. Big 10 53 2 2 36% 1% <1%
58 Eastern Michigan E. Michigan MAC 52 3 1 <1% X <1%
59 Iowa Big 10 52 3 1 62% 5% <1%
60 Kentucky SEC 52 2 2 44% 2% <1%
61 Syracuse ACC 51 2 2 27% 1% <1%
62 Texas Big 12 51 2 1 1% <1% <1%
63 Auburn SEC 51 2 2 12% <1% <1%
64 Missouri SEC 51 2 2 39% 2% <1%
65 LSU SEC 50 2 2 46% 3% <1%
66 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 50 3 1 <1% X <1%
67 Oregon PAC 12 50 2 2 38% 1% <1%
68 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 49 1 1 1% X <1%
69 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 49 2 2 18% 1% <1%
70 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 49 2 2 10% <1% <1%
71 Central Michigan C. Michigan MAC 49 3 1 <1% <1% <1%
72 Boston College ACC 48 2 2 23% 1% <1%
73 USC PAC 12 48 1 3 4% <1% <1%
74 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 48 2 2 9% <1% <1%
75 Rutgers Big 10 48 2 2 48% 2% <1%
76 Oklahoma Big 12 48 1 2 1% <1% <1%
77 Pittsburgh ACC 47 2 2 12% <1% <1%
78 Mississippi St. SEC 46 2 2 14% <1% <1%
79 Duke ACC 46 2 2 28% 1% <1%
80 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 46 2 2 6% <1% <1%
81 Texas St. Sunbelt 45 1 2 X X X
82 Oregon St. PAC 12 45 1 2 41% 2% <1%
83 Oklahoma St. Big 12 44 2 2 <1% <1% <1%
84 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 44 2 2 5% <1% <1%
85 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 44 2 2 <1% X <1%
86 Akron MAC 44 2 2 <1% X <1%
87 Arizona PAC 12 44 2 2 14% <1% <1%
88 Ohio MAC 43 2 2 <1% X <1%
89 Illinois Big 10 43 1 2 62% 6% <1%
90 South Alabama Sunbelt 42 2 2 X X X
91 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 41 2 2 1% <1% <1%
92 Idaho Sunbelt 40 2 2 X X X
93 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 40 2 2 <1% X <1%
94 BYU Independent Ind. 40 1 3 X X X
95 Washington St. PAC 12 40 1 2 18% <1% <1%
96 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 37 1 3 2% <1% <1%
97 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 36 2 2 X X X
98 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 36 2 2 X X X
99 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 35 2 2 X X X
100 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 35 2 2 X X X
101 Kansas Big 12 35 1 2 <1% <1% <1%
102 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 34 2 2 X X X
103 Notre Dame Independent Ind. 33 1 3 <1% <1% <1%
104 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 32 1 3 X X X
105 LA Monroe Sunbelt 32 1 2 X X X
106 Bowling Green MAC 31 1 3 X X X
107 Virginia ACC 31 1 3 1% X <1%
108 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 31 1 3 X X X
109 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 30 1 2 X X X
110 Georgia St. Sunbelt 28 0 3 X X X
111 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 27 1 3 X X X
112 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 27 1 3 X X X
113 Buffalo MAC 27 1 2 <1% X <1%
114 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 26 1 3 X X X
115 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 26 1 3 X X X
116 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 26 1 3 X X X
117 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 25 1 2 <1% X <1%
118 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 25 1 3 X X X
119 Iowa St. Big 12 25 1 3 X X X
120 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 25 1 3 X X X
121 Massachusetts Independent Ind. 24 1 3 X X X
122 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA 23 1 3 X X X
123 Kent State MAC 22 1 3 X X X
124 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 12 0 4 X X X
125 Northern Illinois N. Illinois MAC 11 0 4 X X X
126 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 8 0 4 X X X
127 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 7 0 4 X X X
128 Miami OH MAC 6 0 4 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot