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Tue Oct 21 11:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 9 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 97 7 0 100% 98% 81%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 96 7 0 100% 95% 81%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 95 7 0 100% 98% 72%
4 Alabama SECSEC 93 6 1 100% 98% 69%
5 Georgia SECSEC 93 6 1 100% >99% 66%
6 Oregon Big 10Big 10 92 6 1 100% >99% 63%
7 Georgia Tech ACCACC 91 7 0 100% 94% 64%
8 Ole Miss SECSEC 90 6 1 >99% 86% 57%
9 Miami ACCACC 89 5 1 100% 96% 54%
10 Vanderbilt SECSEC 88 6 1 100% 95% 48%
11 BYU Big 12Big 12 87 7 0 100% 98% 50%
 
12 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 86 5 2 >99% 66% 45%
13 Oklahoma SECSEC 85 6 1 100% 99% 39%
14 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 84 6 1 >99% 58% 34%
15 Missouri SECSEC 83 6 1 100% 99% 31%
16 Virginia ACCACC 82 6 1 >99% 66% 34%
17 Tennessee SECSEC 81 5 2 >99% 64% 28%
18 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 80 6 1 100% 67% 29%
19 Louisville ACCACC 79 5 1 80% 16% 20%
20 LSU SECSEC 77 5 2 >99% 75% 17%
21 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 77 6 1 100% 89% 25%
22 Texas SECSEC 76 5 2 >99% 77% 15%
23 Illinois Big 10Big 10 75 5 2 41% 1% 8%
24 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 74 5 2 92% 34% 13%
25 Michigan Big 10Big 10 73 5 2 87% 9% 8%
26 USC Big 10Big 10 72 5 2 68% 8% 7%
27 Utah Big 12Big 12 72 5 2 57% 5% 7%
28 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 6 1 96% 27% 24%
29 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 6 0 100% 68% 20%
30 Houston Big 12Big 12 72 6 1 89% 19% 11%
31 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 69 5 2 63% 6% 4%
32 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 6 1 99% 23% 9%
33 Washington Big 10Big 10 69 5 2 18% 1% 2%
34 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 6 1 67% 3% 8%
35 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 68 5 2 54% 6% 4%
36 TCU Big 12Big 12 68 5 2 83% 10% 4%
37 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 68 5 2 16% 1% 2%
38 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 67 6 1 48% 4% 8%
39 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 67 5 2 82% 16% 3%
40 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 66 5 2 37% 3% 5%
41 SMU ACCACC 65 5 2 96% 30% 7%
42 Duke ACCACC 64 4 3 70% 9% 5%
43 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 64 6 1 23% <1% 3%
44 Iowa Big 10Big 10 63 5 2 54% 6% 2%
45 Pittsburgh ACCACC 62 5 2 74% 13% 2%
46 N.C. State ACCACC 61 4 3 10% <1% <1%
47 Kansas Big 12Big 12 59 4 3 20% <1% 1%
48 California ACCACC 59 5 2 80% 3% 2%
49 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 59 4 3 5% X <1%
50 Wake Forest ACCACC 59 4 2 14% 1% <1%
51 Arizona Big 12Big 12 58 4 3 4% <1% <1%
52 Florida SECSEC 58 3 4 13% 1% <1%
53 Colorado Big 12Big 12 57 3 4 2% X <1%
54 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 57 5 1 29% 3% 2%
55 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 56 6 2 7% <1% 1%
56 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 56 5 2 2% <1% <1%
57 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 56 4 3 35% 1% 2%
58 Baylor Big 12Big 12 55 4 3 39% 1% 1%
59 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 54 5 2 2% X <1%
60 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 53 5 2 1% <1% <1%
61 Auburn SECSEC 53 3 4 <1% X <1%
62 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 52 4 3 <1% X <1%
63 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 51 5 2 5% <1% <1%
64 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 51 5 2 X X X
65 UCLA Big 10Big 10 51 3 4 85% 6% <1%
66 Stanford ACCACC 50 3 4 4% <1% <1%
67 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 50 6 2 <1% X <1%
68 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 4 3 52% 1% 1%
69 UCF Big 12Big 12 50 4 3 3% X <1%
70 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 49 4 3 6% <1% <1%
71 South Carolina SECSEC 48 3 4 <1% X <1%
72 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 48 4 3 1% X <1%
73 Maryland Big 10Big 10 48 4 3 <1% X <1%
74 Florida St. ACCACC 47 3 4 X X X
75 Syracuse ACCACC 47 3 4 X X X
76 Clemson ACCACC 46 3 4 <1% X <1%
77 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 46 3 4 X X X
78 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 45 3 4 X X X
79 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 45 3 4 X X X
80 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 44 4 3 1% X <1%
81 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 44 4 3 <1% X <1%
82 Arkansas SECSEC 43 2 5 <1% X <1%
83 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 42 3 4 17% <1% <1%
84 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 41 2 5 X X X
85 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 41 4 3 <1% X <1%
86 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 3 4 3% X <1%
87 Purdue Big 10Big 10 41 2 5 X X X
88 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 40 4 3 <1% X <1%
89 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 40 3 4 7% X <1%
90 Western Michigan MACMAC 40 4 3 X X X
91 Kentucky SECSEC 40 2 4 X X X
92 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 39 3 4 X X X
93 Ohio MACMAC 39 4 3 X X X
94 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 39 2 5 X X X
95 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 38 3 3 X X X
96 Virginia Tech ACCACC 38 2 5 10% X <1%
97 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 3 4 <1% X <1%
98 Central Michigan MACMAC 38 4 3 X X X
99 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 38 4 3 X X X
100 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 37 3 4 X X X
101 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 37 3 3 X X X
102 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 37 3 4 X X X
103 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 37 3 4 X X X
104 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 36 3 4 <1% X <1%
105 Toledo MACMAC 34 4 3 X X X
106 Buffalo MACMAC 34 4 3 X X X
107 Bowling Green MACMAC 33 3 4 X X X
108 Miami OH MACMAC 33 4 3 X X X
109 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 31 3 4 X X X
110 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 31 3 4 X X X
111 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 31 3 4 X X X
112 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 31 3 4 X X X
113 North Carolina ACCACC 30 2 4 3% X <1%
114 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 29 3 4 X X X
115 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 29 2 5 X X X
116 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 29 2 5 X X X
117 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 29 3 3 X X X
118 Ball State MACMAC 27 3 4 X X X
119 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 26 2 5 X X X
120 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 23 2 5 X X X
121 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 22 1 6 X X X
122 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 21 1 6 X X X
123 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 20 2 5 X X X
124 Boston College ACCACC 20 1 6 X X X
125 Kent State MACMAC 18 2 5 X X X
126 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 17 1 7 X X X
127 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 15 2 5 X X X
128 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 15 1 6 X X X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 13 1 6 X X X
130 Akron MACMAC 11 2 6 X X X
131 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 8 1 6 X X X
132 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 5 2 6 X X X
133 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 4 1 5 X X X
134 Northern Illinois MACMAC 3 1 6 X X X
135 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 0 0 7 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -5 0 7 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot