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Sun Nov 23 2:15 am

NCAA Football - Week 14 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 104 11 0 100% 99% 99%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 103 11 0 100% 69% 96%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 102 11 0 100% 81% 89%
4 Georgia SECSEC 99 10 1 100% 64% 80%
5 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 96 10 1 100% 37% 68%
6 Ole Miss SECSEC 97 10 1 >99% 26% 79%
7 Oregon Big 10Big 10 100 10 1 100% 89% 95%
8 Oklahoma SECSEC 98 9 2 100% 35% 81%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 95 9 2 97% 5% 79%
10 Alabama SECSEC 94 9 2 92% 20% 67%
 
11 BYU Big 12Big 12 93 10 1 100% 8% 60%
12 Utah Big 12Big 12 89 9 2 22% 2% 13%
13 Miami ACCACC 91 9 2 74% 2% 38%
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 91 9 2 76% <1% 39%
15 USC Big 10Big 10 81 8 3 X X X
16 Georgia Tech ACCACC 78 9 2 8% 4% 4%
17 Texas SECSEC 85 8 3 6% X 2%
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 85 9 2 62% <1% 13%
19 Virginia ACCACC 80 9 2 100% 1% 49%
20 Tennessee SECSEC 84 8 3 1% X <1%
21 Illinois Big 10Big 10 74 7 4 X X X
22 Missouri SECSEC 77 7 4 X X X
23 Houston Big 12Big 12 70 8 3 X X X
24 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 78 9 2 85% 1% 42%
25 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 76 8 3 13% X 3%
26 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 10 1 91% <1% 40%
27 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 74 10 1 19% 1% 10%
28 Washington Big 10Big 10 73 8 3 X X X
29 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 8 2 60% 1% 15%
30 Arizona Big 12Big 12 72 8 3 X X X
31 SMU ACCACC 72 8 3 85% 1% 25%
32 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 71 8 3 2% X 1%
33 Pittsburgh ACCACC 71 8 3 44% 2% 11%
34 LSU SECSEC 71 7 4 X X X
35 TCU Big 12Big 12 70 7 4 X X X
36 Wake Forest ACCACC 69 8 3 X X X
37 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 68 7 4 X X X
38 N.C. State ACCACC 65 6 5 X X X
39 Iowa Big 10Big 10 65 7 4 X X X
40 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 64 9 2 <1% X <1%
41 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 64 8 3 X X X
42 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 63 8 3 X X X
43 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 63 9 2 1% X <1%
44 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 62 7 4 X X X
45 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 62 7 4 X X X
46 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 62 7 4 1% X <1%
47 Louisville ACCACC 62 7 4 X X X
48 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 60 8 3 <1% X <1%
49 Duke ACCACC 60 6 5 1% X <1%
50 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 59 6 5 X X X
51 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 59 8 3 X X X
52 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 58 7 4 <1% X <1%
53 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 56 6 5 X X X
54 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 55 6 5 X X X
55 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 54 4 7 X X X
56 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 54 9 3 - - X
57 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 53 5 6 X X X
58 Auburn SECSEC 52 5 6 X X X
59 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 52 8 3 X X X
60 Clemson ACCACC 51 6 5 X X X
61 South Carolina SECSEC 51 4 7 X X X
62 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 51 5 6 X X X
63 Kentucky SECSEC 51 5 6 X X X
64 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 51 5 6 X X X
65 Florida St. ACCACC 50 5 6 X X X
66 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 50 7 4 X X X
67 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 50 7 4 X X X
68 Baylor Big 12Big 12 49 5 6 X X X
69 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 48 5 6 X X X
70 California ACCACC 48 6 5 X X X
71 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 48 6 5 X X X
72 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 48 5 6 X X X
73 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 47 7 4 X X X
74 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 47 4 7 X X X
75 Florida SECSEC 47 3 8 X X X
76 Kansas Big 12Big 12 46 5 6 X X X
77 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 46 7 4 X X X
78 Western Michigan MACMAC 46 7 4 X X X
79 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 46 7 4 X X X
80 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 44 6 5 X X X
81 UCLA Big 10Big 10 44 3 8 X X X
82 Stanford ACCACC 44 4 7 X X X
83 Ohio MACMAC 42 7 4 X X X
84 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 42 5 6 X X X
85 Central Michigan MACMAC 42 7 4 X X X
86 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 42 7 4 X X X
87 UCF Big 12Big 12 42 5 6 X X X
88 Toledo MACMAC 41 7 4 X X X
89 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 5 X X X
90 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 6 X X X
91 Colorado Big 12Big 12 41 3 8 X X X
92 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 40 6 5 X X X
93 Maryland Big 10Big 10 39 4 7 X X X
94 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 39 5 6 X X X
95 Miami OH MACMAC 38 6 5 X X X
96 Syracuse ACCACC 38 3 8 X X X
97 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 37 6 5 X X X
98 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 37 5 6 X X X
99 Virginia Tech ACCACC 36 3 8 X X X
100 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 36 5 6 X X X
101 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 35 4 7 X X X
102 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 35 5 6 X X X
103 North Carolina ACCACC 34 4 7 X X X
104 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 9 X X X
105 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 33 3 8 X X X
106 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 33 5 6 X X X
107 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 32 5 6 X X X
108 Arkansas SECSEC 32 2 9 X X X
109 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 29 5 6 X X X
110 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 28 4 7 X X X
111 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 27 4 7 X X X
112 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 27 3 8 X X X
113 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 22 4 7 X X X
114 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 22 4 7 X X X
115 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 22 4 7 X X X
116 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 22 3 8 X X X
117 Buffalo MACMAC 21 5 6 X X X
118 Kent State MACMAC 20 4 7 X X X
119 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 19 3 8 X X X
120 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 19 3 8 X X X
121 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 18 3 8 X X X
122 Ball State MACMAC 17 4 7 X X X
123 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 17 2 9 X X X
124 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 16 2 9 X X X
125 Akron MACMAC 16 5 7 - - X
126 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 15 4 7 X X X
127 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 14 1 10 X X X
128 Boston College ACCACC 13 1 10 X X X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 11 1 10 X X X
130 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 10 1 10 X X X
131 Northern Illinois MACMAC 9 3 8 X X X
132 Bowling Green MACMAC 8 3 8 X X X
133 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 6 2 9 X X X
134 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 4 2 9 X X X
135 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 3 2 9 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -14 0 11 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot