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NCAA Football - Week 4 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 UCLA PAC 12 88 3 0 > 99% 99% 35%
2 Auburn SEC 85 3 0 > 99% 97% 27%
3 Oklahoma Big 12 83 3 0 82% 31% 19%
4 Arizona PAC 12 83 3 0 > 99% 95% 25%
 
5 Alabama SEC 81 3 0 > 99% 97% 22%
6 Mississippi St. SEC 80 3 0 > 99% 91% 18%
7 Ole Miss SEC 80 3 0 > 99% 94% 19%
8 Notre Dame Independent 77 3 0 91% 52% 15%
9 Oregon PAC 12 77 3 0 > 99% 94% 16%
10 Washington PAC 12 76 3 0 > 99% 95% 16%
11 Texas A&M SEC 76 3 0 > 99% 95% 14%
12 N.C. State ACC 75 3 0 91% 47% 12%
13 LSU SEC 75 3 0 > 99% 97% 14%
14 Penn St. Big 10 74 3 0 X X X
15 Arizona St. PAC 12 74 3 0 > 99% 95% 13%
16 Florida SEC 73 2 0 99% 73% 10%
17 BYU Independent 72 3 0 33% 4% 4%
18 Pittsburgh ACC 72 3 0 94% 54% 10%
19 Florida St. ACC 69 2 0 99% 83% 9%
20 Georgia Tech ACC 69 3 0 96% 62% 7%
21 Syracuse ACC 69 2 0 99% 81% 10%
22 Oregon St. PAC 12 68 2 0 99% 82% 9%
23 Missouri SEC 68 3 0 96% 59% 6%
24 California PAC 12 68 2 0 > 99% 96% 9%
25 USC PAC 12 66 2 1 99% 79% 5%
26 Nebraska Big 10 66 3 0 40% 4% 3%
27 Tennessee SEC 65 2 1 94% 47% 4%
28 Duke ACC 65 3 0 86% 35% 4%
29 Arkansas SEC 65 2 1 97% 63% 4%
30 TCU Big 12 65 2 0 50% 6% 3%
31 North Carolina ACC 65 2 0 > 99% 86% 7%
32 Baylor Big 12 65 3 0 32% 2% 2%
33 Utah PAC 12 65 2 0 > 99% 92% 6%
34 South Carolina SEC 64 2 1 88% 29% 3%
35 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 63 2 1 30% 2% 1%
36 Boise State Mountain West 62 2 1 25% 2% 1%
37 West Virginia Big 12 61 2 1 24% 1% 1%
38 Northern Illinois MAC 61 3 0 2% < 1% < 1%
39 Boston College ACC 59 2 1 60% 7% 1%
40 Virginia ACC 59 2 1 90% 40% 2%
41 Marshall Conference USA 59 3 0 14% 1% 1%
42 Stanford PAC 12 59 2 1 99% 75% 2%
43 Texas Tech Big 12 57 2 1 19% 1% < 1%
44 Kansas St. Big 12 57 2 1 27% 1% < 1%
45 Navy Independent 56 2 1 2% < 1% < 1%
46 Kentucky SEC 56 2 1 78% 23% 1%
47 Virginia Tech ACC 56 2 1 68% 15% 1%
48 Louisville ACC 55 2 1 78% 16% 1%
49 Michigan Big 10 55 2 1 33% 3% 1%
50 Ohio St. Big 10 54 2 1 38% 4% 1%
51 Wyoming Mountain West 54 2 1 10% < 1% < 1%
52 Cincinnati American Athletic 54 1 0 3% < 1% < 1%
53 Oklahoma St. Big 12 54 2 1 12% < 1% < 1%
54 UTEP Conference USA 54 2 1 14% 1% < 1%
55 Nevada Mountain West 54 2 1 21% 1% < 1%
56 Minnesota Big 10 53 2 1 18% 1% < 1%
57 Rutgers Big 10 53 2 1 15% 1% < 1%
58 Georgia SEC 53 1 1 80% 18% 1%
59 East Carolina American Athletic 53 2 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
60 Colorado St. Mountain West 53 2 1 7% < 1% < 1%
61 Illinois Big 10 53 2 1 20% 1% < 1%
62 Old Dominion Conference USA 52 2 1 9% < 1% < 1%
63 Miami ACC 52 2 1 85% 23% 1%
64 LA Monroe Sunbelt 51 2 1 1% < 1% < 1%
65 Utah St. Mountain West 50 2 1 26% 2% < 1%
66 Maryland Big 10 50 2 1 28% 2% < 1%
67 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 49 2 1 17% 1% < 1%
68 Texas Big 12 49 1 2 6% < 1% < 1%
69 UAB Conference USA 48 2 1 9% < 1% < 1%
70 San Jose State Mountain West 48 1 1 24% 1% < 1%
71 Central Michigan MAC 48 2 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
72 Air Force Mountain West 47 2 1 5% < 1% < 1%
73 Kansas Big 12 46 1 1 22% 1% < 1%
74 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 46 1 2 3% < 1% < 1%
75 Michigan St. Big 10 45 1 1 37% 4% < 1%
76 Memphis American Athletic 45 1 1 1% < 1% < 1%
77 Temple American Athletic 45 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
78 Colorado PAC 12 44 1 2 70% 13% < 1%
79 Clemson ACC 44 1 1 75% 21% < 1%
80 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 44 2 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
81 Southern Miss Conference USA 43 1 2 3% < 1% < 1%
82 South Alabama Sunbelt 42 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
83 San Diego State Mountain West 42 1 1 6% < 1% < 1%
84 Wisconsin Big 10 42 1 1 11% < 1% < 1%
85 Purdue Big 10 42 1 2 1% < 1% < 1%
86 UTSA Conference USA 41 1 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
87 Washington St. PAC 12 41 1 2 73% 19% < 1%
88 Army Independent 41 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
89 Akron MAC 41 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
90 Bowling Green MAC 41 2 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
91 Iowa Big 10 40 2 1 6% < 1% < 1%
92 Indiana Big 10 40 1 1 26% 1% < 1%
93 W. Kentucky Conference USA 39 1 2 3% < 1% < 1%
94 UNLV Mountain West 39 1 2 3% < 1% < 1%
95 Western Michigan MAC 39 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
96 Vanderbilt SEC 38 1 2 29% 1% < 1%
97 Rice Conference USA 38 0 2 3% < 1% < 1%
98 Tulsa American Athletic 38 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
99 Wake Forest ACC 38 1 2 23% 1% < 1%
100 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 36 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
101 Hawaii Mountain West 36 1 2 2% < 1% < 1%
102 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 36 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
103 Texas St. Sunbelt 35 1 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
104 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 35 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
105 North Texas Conference USA 34 1 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
106 Ohio MAC 33 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
107 Eastern Michigan MAC 33 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
108 Connecticut American Athletic 33 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
109 Iowa St. Big 12 33 1 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
110 UCF American Athletic 32 0 2 < 1% X < 1%
111 Northwestern Big 10 31 0 2 12% < 1% < 1%
112 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 31 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
113 Toledo MAC 31 1 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
114 Tulane American Athletic 31 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
115 South Florida American Athletic 31 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
116 Houston American Athletic 30 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
117 New Mexico Mountain West 28 0 2 2% < 1% < 1%
118 Fresno State Mountain West 28 0 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
119 Buffalo MAC 26 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
120 SMU American Athletic 26 0 2 < 1% X < 1%
121 Florida Intl. Conference USA 25 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
122 Idaho Sunbelt 19 0 2 < 1% X < 1%
123 Georgia St. Sunbelt 19 0 2 < 1% X < 1%
124 Ball State MAC 17 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
125 Kent State MAC 13 0 3 < 1% X < 1%
126 Massachusetts MAC 11 0 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
127 Miami OH MAC 10 0 3 X X X
128 Troy Sunbelt 10 0 3 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot