PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 4 12:30 am

NCAA Football - Week 15 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Alabama SEC 113 13 0 - - 100%
2 Ohio St. Big 10 104 11 1 - - 100%
3 Clemson ACC 103 12 1 - - 100%
4 Washington PAC 12 100 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Penn St. Big 10 96 11 2 - - X
6 Michigan Big 10 93 10 2 - - X
7 Colorado PAC 12 89 10 3 - - X
8 Wisconsin Big 10 89 10 3 - - X
9 Oklahoma Big 12 88 10 2 - - X
10 USC PAC 12 84 9 3 - - X
11 West Virginia Big 12 81 10 2 - - X
12 Oklahoma St. Big 12 81 9 3 - - X
13 Auburn SEC 81 8 4 - - X
14 Florida St. ACC 80 9 3 - - X
15 Louisville ACC 80 9 3 - - X
16 Western Michigan W. Michigan MAC 80 13 0 - - X
17 Florida SEC 78 8 4 - - X
18 Stanford PAC 12 78 9 3 - - X
19 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 76 9 2 X X X
20 Utah PAC 12 76 8 4 - - X
21 LSU SEC 74 7 4 - - X
22 Tennessee SEC 73 8 4 - - X
23 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 73 9 3 - - X
24 Pittsburgh ACC 73 8 4 - - X
25 Washington St. PAC 12 72 8 4 - - X
26 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 72 10 2 - - X
27 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 72 10 2 - - X
28 Nebraska Big 10 71 9 3 - - X
29 Virginia Tech ACC 71 9 4 - - X
30 Texas A&M SEC 71 8 4 - - X
31 Minnesota Big 10 70 8 4 - - X
32 Georgia Tech ACC 69 8 4 - - X
33 Iowa Big 10 69 8 4 - - X
34 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 69 9 3 - - X
35 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 67 9 3 - - X
36 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 66 9 3 X X X
37 Miami ACC 65 8 4 - - X
38 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 64 9 3 - - X
39 Georgia SEC 64 7 5 - - X
40 North Carolina ACC 64 8 4 - - X
41 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 64 10 3 - - X
42 Kentucky SEC 63 7 5 - - X
43 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 63 8 4 - - X
44 Arkansas SEC 63 7 5 - - X
45 Troy Sunbelt 63 9 3 - - X
46 Toledo MAC 62 9 3 - - X
47 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 61 10 3 - - X
48 BYU Independent Ind. 60 8 4 - - X
49 Kansas St. Big 12 60 8 4 - - X
50 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 59 8 5 - - X
51 Idaho Sunbelt 58 8 4 - - X
52 Vanderbilt SEC 58 6 6 - - X
53 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 57 6 6 - - X
54 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 56 7 5 - - X
55 Maryland Big 10 55 6 6 - - X
56 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 55 8 4 - - X
57 Indiana Big 10 54 6 6 - - X
58 Ole Miss SEC 54 5 7 - - X
59 South Carolina SEC 53 6 6 - - X
60 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 53 9 3 - - X
61 N.C. State ACC 53 6 6 - - X
62 California PAC 12 51 5 7 - - X
63 Mississippi St. SEC 49 5 7 - - X
64 Arizona St. PAC 12 48 5 7 - - X
65 Boston College ACC 48 6 6 - - X
66 Eastern Michigan E. Michigan MAC 48 7 5 - - X
67 Wake Forest ACC 48 6 6 - - X
68 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 47 8 4 - - X
69 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 47 6 6 - - X
70 Ohio MAC 46 8 5 - - X
71 Oregon PAC 12 46 4 8 - - X
72 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 45 8 5 - - X
73 TCU Big 12 45 6 6 - - X
74 Oregon St. PAC 12 45 4 8 - - X
75 UCLA PAC 12 44 4 8 - - X
76 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 44 7 5 - - X
77 Baylor Big 12 42 6 6 - - X
78 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 42 5 7 - - X
79 Missouri SEC 41 4 8 - - X
80 Syracuse ACC 40 4 8 - - X
81 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 39 5 6 - - X
82 Central Michigan C. Michigan MAC 39 6 6 - - X
83 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 38 6 7 - - X
84 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 37 5 7 - - X
85 Texas Big 12 37 5 7 - - X
86 Texas Tech Big 12 37 5 7 - - X
87 South Alabama Sunbelt 36 6 6 - - X
88 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 36 6 6 - - X
89 Notre Dame Independent Ind. 35 4 8 - - X
90 Arizona PAC 12 35 3 9 - - X
91 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 35 6 6 - - X
92 Army Independent Ind. 35 6 5 X X X
93 Duke ACC 34 4 8 - - X
94 Michigan St. Big 10 34 3 9 - - X
95 Northern Illinois N. Illinois MAC 34 5 7 - - X
96 Illinois Big 10 33 3 9 - - X
97 Miami OH MAC 33 6 6 - - X
98 Akron MAC 31 5 7 - - X
99 Rutgers Big 10 30 2 10 - - X
100 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 30 4 8 - - X
101 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 30 4 8 - - X
102 Purdue Big 10 29 3 9 - - X
103 LA Monroe Sunbelt 29 4 8 - - X
104 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 27 5 7 - - X
105 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 26 4 8 - - X
106 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 26 3 9 - - X
107 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 25 3 9 - - X
108 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 25 4 8 - - X
109 Bowling Green MAC 25 4 8 - - X
110 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 22 5 7 - - X
111 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 22 3 9 - - X
112 Iowa St. Big 12 21 3 9 - - X
113 Ball State MAC 19 4 8 - - X
114 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 19 3 9 - - X
115 Georgia St. Sunbelt 19 3 9 - - X
116 Kent State MAC 19 3 9 - - X
117 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 18 4 8 - - X
118 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 18 4 8 - - X
119 Virginia ACC 17 2 10 - - X
120 Kansas Big 12 16 2 10 - - X
121 Massachusetts Independent Ind. 12 2 10 - - X
122 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 12 3 9 - - X
123 Texas St. Sunbelt 11 2 10 - - X
124 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA 10 4 8 - - X
125 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 9 3 9 - - X
126 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 7 3 9 - - X
127 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 3 1 11 - - X
128 Buffalo MAC 0 2 10 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot