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Tue Nov 18 10:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 13 of 14

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 102 10 0 100% >99% 94%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 101 11 0 100% 65% 95%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 100 10 0 100% 79% 86%
4 Georgia SECSEC 98 9 1 100% 83% 88%
5 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 97 10 1 100% 67% 85%
6 Ole Miss SECSEC 96 10 1 >99% 34% 81%
7 Oregon Big 10Big 10 95 9 1 100% 90% 73%
8 Oklahoma SECSEC 94 8 2 >99% 36% 66%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 93 8 2 95% 7% 71%
10 Alabama SECSEC 91 8 2 84% 20% 57%
 
11 BYU Big 12Big 12 90 9 1 100% 31% 54%
12 Utah Big 12Big 12 89 8 2 75% 7% 42%
13 Miami ACCACC 88 8 2 75% 3% 33%
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 87 8 2 70% 1% 29%
15 USC Big 10Big 10 86 8 2 57% 2% 20%
16 Georgia Tech ACCACC 85 9 1 100% 51% 41%
17 Texas SECSEC 83 7 3 23% <1% 7%
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 82 8 2 53% <1% 10%
19 Virginia ACCACC 81 9 2 89% 2% 40%
20 Tennessee SECSEC 80 7 3 4% X 1%
21 Illinois Big 10Big 10 79 7 3 <1% X <1%
22 Missouri SECSEC 78 7 3 1% X <1%
23 Houston Big 12Big 12 76 8 2 5% <1% 1%
24 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 75 8 2 81% 2% 32%
25 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 74 7 3 29% <1% 5%
26 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 9 1 77% 2% 27%
27 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 8 2 62% 2% 17%
28 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 73 9 1 44% 2% 18%
29 Arizona Big 12Big 12 72 7 3 <1% X <1%
30 Washington Big 10Big 10 70 7 3 X X X
31 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 69 7 3 5% X 1%
32 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 69 7 3 X X X
33 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 67 7 3 47% 1% 9%
34 Wake Forest ACCACC 67 7 3 X X X
35 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 66 6 4 X X X
36 SMU ACCACC 66 7 3 58% 1% 9%
37 LSU SECSEC 66 6 4 X X X
38 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 66 7 3 29% <1% 2%
39 Louisville ACCACC 65 7 3 X X X
40 Pittsburgh ACCACC 64 7 3 65% 2% 5%
41 TCU Big 12Big 12 64 6 4 X X X
42 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 8 3 X X X
43 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 64 8 2 2% X 1%
44 N.C. State ACCACC 62 5 5 X X X
45 Iowa Big 10Big 10 62 6 4 X X X
46 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 62 7 3 X X X
47 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 61 8 2 <1% X <1%
48 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 61 6 4 X X X
49 Duke ACCACC 58 5 5 2% X <1%
50 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 56 7 3 <1% X <1%
51 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 55 7 3 <1% X <1%
52 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 55 5 5 X X X
53 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 55 6 4 X X X
54 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 55 8 2 <1% X <1%
55 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 54 7 3 X X X
56 California ACCACC 54 6 4 X X X
57 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 54 7 3 X X X
58 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 53 7 3 <1% X <1%
59 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 53 7 3 X X X
60 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 52 5 6 X X X
61 Florida St. ACCACC 52 5 5 X X X
62 Baylor Big 12Big 12 52 5 5 X X X
63 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 52 8 3 X X X
64 Kentucky SECSEC 52 5 5 X X X
65 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 51 5 5 X X X
66 Kansas Big 12Big 12 51 5 5 X X X
67 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 51 5 5 <1% X <1%
68 Clemson ACCACC 50 5 5 X X X
69 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 50 5 5 X X X
70 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 5 5 X X X
71 Auburn SECSEC 50 4 6 X X X
72 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 49 6 4 X X X
73 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 5 4 X X X
74 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 49 7 3 X X X
75 Florida SECSEC 48 3 7 X X X
76 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 47 4 7 X X X
77 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 46 3 7 X X X
78 UCLA Big 10Big 10 46 3 7 X X X
79 Western Michigan MACMAC 46 7 4 X X X
80 South Carolina SECSEC 45 3 7 X X X
81 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 45 5 5 X X X
82 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 45 5 5 X X X
83 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 45 6 4 X X X
84 Colorado Big 12Big 12 44 3 7 X X X
85 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 43 4 6 X X X
86 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 43 5 5 X X X
87 UCF Big 12Big 12 43 4 6 X X X
88 Ohio MACMAC 42 7 4 X X X
89 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 42 5 5 X X X
90 Maryland Big 10Big 10 41 4 6 X X X
91 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 41 5 5 X X X
92 Toledo MACMAC 40 6 4 X X X
93 Central Michigan MACMAC 39 6 4 X X X
94 Virginia Tech ACCACC 38 3 7 X X X
95 Stanford ACCACC 38 3 7 X X X
96 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 4 6 X X X
97 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 38 5 5 X X X
98 Syracuse ACCACC 37 3 7 X X X
99 North Carolina ACCACC 36 4 6 X X X
100 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 36 3 7 X X X
101 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 35 5 5 X X X
102 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 35 5 5 X X X
103 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 9 X X X
104 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 33 4 6 X X X
105 Miami OH MACMAC 33 5 5 X X X
106 Arkansas SECSEC 32 2 8 X X X
107 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 32 5 5 X X X
108 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 30 4 6 X X X
109 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 30 4 6 X X X
110 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 30 3 7 X X X
111 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 29 4 6 X X X
112 Buffalo MACMAC 26 5 5 X X X
113 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 26 4 6 X X X
114 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 24 3 7 X X X
115 Kent State MACMAC 24 4 6 X X X
116 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 23 3 7 X X X
117 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 23 3 7 X X X
118 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 21 3 7 X X X
119 Ball State MACMAC 20 4 6 X X X
120 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 19 2 8 X X X
121 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 19 3 7 X X X
122 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 18 3 7 X X X
123 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 18 1 9 X X X
124 Akron MACMAC 17 5 7 - - X
125 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 17 2 9 X X X
126 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 14 4 7 X X X
127 Boston College ACCACC 13 1 10 X X X
128 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 12 1 9 X X X
129 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 11 2 8 X X X
130 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 11 1 9 X X X
131 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 11 2 8 X X X
132 Bowling Green MACMAC 10 3 8 X X X
133 Northern Illinois MACMAC 9 3 8 X X X
134 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 8 2 8 X X X
135 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 0 1 9 X X X
136 UMass MACMAC -14 0 11 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot