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NCAA Football - Week 14 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Alabama SEC 106 10 1 100% 84% 84%
2 Oregon PAC 12 104 10 1 100% 92% 88%
3 Florida St. ACC 103 11 0 > 99% 67% 82%
4 Mississippi St. SEC 102 10 1 > 99% 43% 69%
 
5 TCU Big 12 96 9 1 47% < 1% 31%
6 Ohio St. Big 10 95 10 1 62% < 1% 32%
7 Baylor Big 12 91 9 1 9% < 1% 4%
8 UCLA PAC 12 89 9 2 4% X 2%
9 Georgia SEC 89 9 2 23% < 1% 5%
10 Michigan St. Big 10 87 9 2 < 1% X < 1%
11 Arizona PAC 12 87 9 2 5% X 1%
12 Kansas St. Big 12 86 8 2 < 1% X < 1%
13 Arizona St. PAC 12 85 9 2 5% X 1%
14 Wisconsin Big 10 85 9 2 1% X < 1%
15 Auburn SEC 83 8 3 < 1% X < 1%
16 Georgia Tech ACC 83 9 2 1% X < 1%
17 Missouri SEC 82 9 2 < 1% X < 1%
18 Minnesota Big 10 82 8 3 < 1% X < 1%
19 Ole Miss SEC 82 8 3 X X X
20 Oklahoma Big 12 80 8 3 X X X
21 Clemson ACC 79 8 3 X X X
22 Louisville ACC 79 8 3 X X X
23 Boise State Mountain West 79 9 2 X X X
24 Marshall Conference USA 77 11 0 X X X
25 Utah PAC 12 76 7 4 X X X
26 Colorado St. Mountain West 76 10 1 X X X
27 USC PAC 12 76 7 4 X X X
28 Texas A&M SEC 75 7 4 X X X
29 Nebraska Big 10 73 8 3 X X X
30 LSU SEC 73 7 4 X X X
31 Notre Dame Independent 73 7 4 X X X
32 Arkansas SEC 72 6 5 X X X
33 Maryland Big 10 68 7 4 X X X
34 West Virginia Big 12 67 6 5 X X X
35 Florida SEC 67 6 4 X X X
36 Washington PAC 12 66 7 5 X X X
37 Stanford PAC 12 66 6 5 X X X
38 Miami ACC 65 6 5 X X X
39 Utah St. Mountain West 65 9 3 X X X
40 Duke ACC 64 8 3 X X X
41 Texas Big 12 63 6 5 X X X
42 Memphis American Athletic 62 8 3 X X X
43 South Carolina SEC 62 6 5 X X X
44 North Carolina ACC 61 6 5 X X X
45 Tennessee SEC 60 5 6 X X X
46 Boston College ACC 59 6 5 X X X
47 Northern Illinois MAC 59 9 2 X X X
48 Air Force Mountain West 59 8 3 X X X
49 BYU Independent 59 7 4 X X X
50 California PAC 12 58 5 6 X X X
51 Cincinnati American Athletic 58 7 3 X X X
52 Iowa Big 10 58 7 4 X X X
53 Rutgers Big 10 58 6 5 X X X
54 N.C. State ACC 57 6 5 X X X
55 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 56 7 4 X X X
56 Virginia ACC 55 5 6 X X X
57 Nevada Mountain West 55 6 5 X X X
58 East Carolina American Athletic 54 7 3 X X X
59 Rice Conference USA 54 7 4 X X X
60 Penn St. Big 10 52 6 5 X X X
61 Northwestern Big 10 52 5 6 X X X
62 Oklahoma St. Big 12 51 5 6 X X X
63 Kentucky SEC 51 5 6 X X X
64 UCF American Athletic 51 7 3 X X X
65 Oregon St. PAC 12 51 5 6 X X X
66 Virginia Tech ACC 51 5 6 X X X
67 Illinois Big 10 50 5 6 X X X
68 Michigan Big 10 50 5 6 X X X
69 Western Michigan MAC 49 8 3 X X X
70 Toledo MAC 48 7 4 X X X
71 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 48 8 3 X X X
72 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 47 6 5 X X X
73 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 46 7 4 X X X
74 Navy Independent 44 5 5 X X X
75 Bowling Green MAC 44 7 4 X X X
76 Washington St. PAC 12 44 3 8 X X X
77 Fresno State Mountain West 44 5 6 X X X
78 San Diego State Mountain West 43 6 5 X X X
79 Texas Tech Big 12 42 4 7 X X X
80 W. Kentucky Conference USA 42 6 5 X X X
81 Pittsburgh ACC 42 5 6 X X X
82 UTEP Conference USA 41 6 5 X X X
83 Wyoming Mountain West 40 4 7 X X X
84 Houston American Athletic 39 6 4 X X X
85 UAB Conference USA 38 5 6 X X X
86 Temple American Athletic 37 5 5 X X X
87 Colorado PAC 12 37 2 9 X X X
88 South Alabama Sunbelt 36 6 5 X X X
89 Central Michigan MAC 36 7 5 - - X
90 Old Dominion Conference USA 35 5 6 X X X
91 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 35 6 5 X X X
92 Indiana Big 10 34 3 8 X X X
93 Syracuse ACC 34 3 8 X X X
94 Purdue Big 10 34 3 8 X X X
95 Kansas Big 12 34 3 8 X X X
96 Vanderbilt SEC 33 3 8 X X X
97 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 30 6 5 X X X
98 Ohio MAC 30 6 6 - - X
99 Texas St. Sunbelt 30 6 5 X X X
100 Wake Forest ACC 29 3 8 X X X
101 Southern Miss Conference USA 28 3 8 X X X
102 Hawaii Mountain West 28 4 8 X X X
103 South Florida American Athletic 28 4 7 X X X
104 San Jose State Mountain West 27 3 8 X X X
105 Iowa St. Big 12 27 2 8 X X X
106 New Mexico Mountain West 26 3 8 X X X
107 Tulane American Athletic 24 3 8 X X X
108 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 23 3 8 X X X
109 Akron MAC 22 5 6 X X X
110 UTSA Conference USA 20 3 8 X X X
111 LA Monroe Sunbelt 20 4 7 X X X
112 Florida Intl. Conference USA 20 4 8 - - X
113 North Texas Conference USA 20 4 7 X X X
114 Ball State MAC 16 4 7 X X X
115 Army Independent 15 4 7 X X X
116 UNLV Mountain West 14 2 10 X X X
117 Connecticut American Athletic 12 2 8 X X X
118 Tulsa American Athletic 11 2 9 X X X
119 Buffalo MAC 9 4 7 X X X
120 Massachusetts MAC 7 3 8 X X X
121 Troy Sunbelt 6 3 8 X X X
122 Eastern Michigan MAC 6 2 9 X X X
123 Kent State MAC 5 2 9 X X X
124 SMU American Athletic 3 0 10 X X X
125 Miami OH MAC 1 2 10 - - X
126 New Mexico St. Sunbelt -5 2 9 X X X
127 Georgia St. Sunbelt -8 0 10 X X X
128 Idaho Sunbelt -9 1 9 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot