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NCAA Football - Week 10 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Mississippi St. SEC 102 7 0 > 99% 97% 66%
2 Florida St. ACC 101 8 0 > 99% 87% 69%
3 Auburn SEC 96 6 1 > 99% 90% 41%
4 Oregon PAC 12 95 7 1 > 99% 74% 40%
 
5 Ole Miss SEC 95 7 1 > 99% 56% 33%
6 Alabama SEC 93 7 1 99% 54% 27%
7 UCLA PAC 12 88 6 2 78% 6% 14%
8 Arizona St. PAC 12 88 6 1 > 99% 68% 20%
9 Arizona PAC 12 88 6 1 > 99% 52% 17%
10 Notre Dame Independent 88 6 1 77% 9% 15%
11 Utah PAC 12 87 6 1 > 99% 71% 18%
12 Nebraska Big 10 85 7 1 68% 3% 11%
13 LSU SEC 84 7 2 19% < 1% 3%
14 Georgia SEC 83 6 1 95% 16% 10%
15 Michigan St. Big 10 83 7 1 59% 2% 7%
16 Kansas St. Big 12 81 6 1 22% < 1% 2%
17 Ohio St. Big 10 80 6 1 55% 2% 6%
18 West Virginia Big 12 80 6 2 1% < 1% < 1%
19 TCU Big 12 79 6 1 2% < 1% < 1%
20 Clemson ACC 77 6 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
21 Colorado St. Mountain West 77 7 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
22 USC PAC 12 77 5 3 12% < 1% 1%
23 Marshall Conference USA 76 8 0 < 1% < 1% < 1%
24 Boise State Mountain West 76 6 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
25 Oklahoma Big 12 75 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
26 Baylor Big 12 73 6 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
27 Georgia Tech ACC 72 6 2 5% < 1% < 1%
28 Missouri SEC 72 6 2 6% < 1% < 1%
29 Minnesota Big 10 71 6 2 9% < 1% < 1%
30 Texas A&M SEC 71 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
31 Duke ACC 71 6 1 1% < 1% < 1%
32 Miami ACC 68 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
33 Stanford PAC 12 68 5 3 25% < 1% < 1%
34 Louisville ACC 67 6 3 < 1% X < 1%
35 Wisconsin Big 10 65 5 2 2% < 1% < 1%
36 Maryland Big 10 64 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
37 East Carolina American Athletic 63 6 1 < 1% X < 1%
38 Washington PAC 12 63 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
39 Kentucky SEC 62 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
40 Arkansas SEC 62 4 4 < 1% X < 1%
41 Nevada Mountain West 61 5 3 < 1% X < 1%
42 Oklahoma St. Big 12 61 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
43 Rutgers Big 10 61 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
44 Florida SEC 60 3 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
45 Iowa Big 10 60 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
46 Oregon St. PAC 12 59 4 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
47 Boston College ACC 59 5 3 < 1% X < 1%
48 South Carolina SEC 59 4 4 X X X
49 California PAC 12 58 4 4 < 1% X < 1%
50 North Carolina ACC 57 4 4 < 1% X < 1%
51 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 56 5 3 < 1% X < 1%
52 Air Force Mountain West 55 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
53 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 55 5 3 < 1% X < 1%
54 UCF American Athletic 55 5 2 X X X
55 Virginia Tech ACC 54 4 4 X X X
56 Utah St. Mountain West 54 5 3 < 1% X < 1%
57 Penn St. Big 10 54 4 3 X X X
58 Memphis American Athletic 52 4 3 X X X
59 N.C. State ACC 52 4 4 X X X
60 Illinois Big 10 51 4 4 < 1% X < 1%
61 Tennessee SEC 51 3 5 X X X
62 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 50 7 2 < 1% X < 1%
63 Virginia ACC 49 4 4 < 1% X < 1%
64 Northern Illinois MAC 49 6 2 < 1% X < 1%
65 BYU Independent 48 4 4 X X X
66 Northwestern Big 10 48 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
67 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 47 4 3 X X X
68 Rice Conference USA 46 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
69 Cincinnati American Athletic 46 4 3 X X X
70 South Alabama Sunbelt 46 5 2 X X X
71 Pittsburgh ACC 46 4 4 < 1% X < 1%
72 Syracuse ACC 46 3 5 X X X
73 Texas Tech Big 12 45 3 5 X X X
74 UTEP Conference USA 45 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
75 Michigan Big 10 45 3 5 < 1% X < 1%
76 Texas Big 12 44 3 5 X X X
77 San Jose State Mountain West 44 3 4 X X X
78 Navy Independent 44 4 4 X X X
79 Purdue Big 10 44 3 5 X X X
80 Indiana Big 10 44 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
81 Toledo MAC 43 5 3 X X X
82 Washington St. PAC 12 43 2 6 X X X
83 San Diego State Mountain West 43 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
84 Western Michigan MAC 43 5 3 X X X
85 Fresno State Mountain West 42 3 5 X X X
86 Bowling Green MAC 41 5 3 X X X
87 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 41 4 3 X X X
88 Wyoming Mountain West 41 3 5 X X X
89 Houston American Athletic 40 4 3 X X X
90 UAB Conference USA 39 4 4 X X X
91 Colorado PAC 12 39 2 6 X X X
92 Temple American Athletic 38 4 3 X X X
93 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 37 3 5 X X X
94 W. Kentucky Conference USA 37 3 4 X X X
95 Central Michigan MAC 37 5 4 X X X
96 Southern Miss Conference USA 37 3 5 X X X
97 Iowa St. Big 12 36 2 5 X X X
98 Texas St. Sunbelt 35 4 3 X X X
99 Kansas Big 12 34 2 5 X X X
100 Vanderbilt SEC 31 2 6 X X X
101 Old Dominion Conference USA 31 3 5 X X X
102 Akron MAC 31 4 4 X X X
103 LA Monroe Sunbelt 30 3 4 X X X
104 Ohio MAC 29 4 5 X X X
105 South Florida American Athletic 27 3 5 X X X
106 Wake Forest ACC 27 2 6 X X X
107 New Mexico Mountain West 26 2 5 X X X
108 UNLV Mountain West 25 2 6 X X X
109 Florida Intl. Conference USA 25 3 5 X X X
110 Tulane American Athletic 24 2 5 X X X
111 UTSA Conference USA 23 2 6 X X X
112 Hawaii Mountain West 23 2 6 X X X
113 Ball State MAC 19 3 5 X X X
114 Eastern Michigan MAC 13 2 6 X X X
115 Tulsa American Athletic 13 1 6 X X X
116 North Texas Conference USA 13 2 6 X X X
117 Buffalo MAC 13 3 5 X X X
118 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 11 2 5 X X X
119 Army Independent 10 2 5 X X X
120 Connecticut American Athletic 9 1 6 X X X
121 SMU American Athletic 9 0 7 X X X
122 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 7 2 6 X X X
123 Miami OH MAC 5 2 7 X X X
124 Massachusetts MAC 5 2 7 X X X
125 Idaho Sunbelt 3 1 6 X X X
126 Troy Sunbelt 1 1 8 X X X
127 Kent State MAC 0 1 7 X X X
128 Georgia St. Sunbelt 0 0 7 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot