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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Colorado PAC 12 51 0 0 96% 74% 4%
2 North Texas Conference USA 51 0 0 94% 66% 3%
3 Hawaii Mountain West 51 0 0 96% 73% 4%
4 LA Monroe Sunbelt 51 0 0 90% 58% 3%
 
5 Florida Intl. Conference USA 51 0 0 94% 66% 3%
6 Buffalo MAC 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
7 Nevada Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
8 UTEP Conference USA 51 0 0 94% 66% 3%
9 UNLV Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 62% 3%
10 W. Kentucky Conference USA 51 0 0 96% 75% 4%
11 Wyoming Mountain West 51 0 0 93% 61% 4%
12 Boise State Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 62% 3%
13 San Diego State Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
14 Marshall Conference USA 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
15 Utah St. Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 60% 3%
16 San Jose State Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
17 Air Force Mountain West 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
18 Fresno State Mountain West 51 0 0 92% 62% 3%
19 Cincinnati American Athletic 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
20 Miami OH MAC 51 0 0 92% 59% 3%
21 Southern Miss Conference USA 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
22 Northern Illinois MAC 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
23 Bowling Green MAC 51 0 0 97% 76% 4%
24 Arizona PAC 12 51 0 0 90% 59% 3%
25 Washington St. PAC 12 51 0 0 90% 59% 3%
26 Ohio MAC 51 0 0 92% 60% 3%
27 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
28 Connecticut American Athletic 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
29 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 51 0 0 91% 59% 3%
30 Kent State MAC 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
31 Eastern Michigan MAC 50 0 0 96% 75% 4%
32 Western Michigan MAC 50 0 0 93% 62% 3%
33 Akron MAC 50 0 0 93% 62% 3%
34 Colorado St. Mountain West 50 0 0 91% 58% 3%
35 Rice Conference USA 50 0 0 92% 62% 3%
36 UCF American Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
37 Oregon St. PAC 12 50 0 0 90% 60% 3%
38 Central Michigan MAC 50 0 0 93% 62% 3%
39 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 50 0 0 96% 73% 4%
40 Old Dominion Conference USA 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
41 Tulane American Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
42 New Mexico Mountain West 50 0 0 90% 58% 3%
43 South Florida American Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
44 Ball State MAC 50 0 0 92% 63% 3%
45 East Carolina American Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
46 California PAC 12 50 0 0 90% 60% 3%
47 UCLA PAC 12 50 0 0 95% 72% 4%
48 Duke ACC 50 0 0 93% 62% 3%
49 Memphis American Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
50 Tulsa American Athletic 50 0 0 96% 74% 4%
51 UTSA Conference USA 50 0 0 96% 74% 4%
52 Miami ACC 50 0 0 93% 61% 3%
53 Massachusetts MAC 50 0 0 95% 71% 4%
54 Temple American Athletic 50 0 0 96% 73% 4%
55 Wake Forest ACC 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
56 N.C. State ACC 50 0 0 93% 61% 3%
57 Virginia Tech ACC 50 0 0 93% 61% 3%
58 Pittsburgh ACC 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
59 Washington PAC 12 50 0 0 88% 56% 3%
60 Oregon PAC 12 50 0 0 88% 56% 3%
61 Army Independent 50 0 0 66% 21% 2%
62 Charlotte Conference USA 50 0 0 91% 60% 3%
63 Arizona St. PAC 12 50 0 0 89% 55% 3%
64 Houston American Athletic 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
65 Louisville ACC 50 0 0 92% 60% 3%
66 Utah PAC 12 50 0 0 93% 69% 4%
67 BYU Independent 50 0 0 78% 34% 2%
68 Toledo MAC 50 0 0 91% 58% 3%
69 Navy American Athletic 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
70 Stanford PAC 12 50 0 0 93% 69% 4%
71 Troy Sunbelt 50 0 0 79% 39% 2%
72 North Carolina ACC 50 0 0 84% 43% 2%
73 SMU American Athletic 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
74 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 87% 53% 3%
75 USC PAC 12 50 0 0 93% 69% 4%
76 Virginia ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
77 Syracuse ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
78 Texas St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 35% 2%
79 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 50 0 0 75% 34% 2%
80 Georgia Tech ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
81 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
82 Florida St. ACC 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
83 Idaho Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
84 Vanderbilt SEC 50 0 0 92% 60% 3%
85 Georgia St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
86 South Alabama Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
87 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
88 Indiana Big 10 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
89 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
90 Northwestern Big 10 50 0 0 91% 56% 3%
91 Clemson ACC 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
92 Purdue Big 10 50 0 0 90% 55% 3%
93 Illinois Big 10 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
94 Iowa Big 10 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
95 Ohio St. Big 10 50 0 0 95% 70% 4%
96 Boston College ACC 50 0 0 82% 38% 2%
97 Penn St. Big 10 50 0 0 95% 70% 4%
98 Maryland Big 10 50 0 0 91% 56% 3%
99 Michigan St. Big 10 50 0 0 95% 70% 4%
100 Wisconsin Big 10 50 0 0 95% 70% 4%
101 Michigan Big 10 50 0 0 95% 69% 4%
102 Rutgers Big 10 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
103 Nebraska Big 10 50 0 0 95% 69% 4%
104 Missouri SEC 50 0 0 91% 56% 3%
105 Notre Dame Independent 50 0 0 86% 49% 3%
106 LSU SEC 50 0 0 91% 56% 3%
107 Georgia SEC 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
108 Mississippi St. SEC 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
109 Minnesota Big 10 50 0 0 95% 69% 4%
110 Ole Miss SEC 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
111 Kentucky SEC 50 0 0 88% 52% 3%
112 Alabama SEC 50 0 0 89% 52% 3%
113 Auburn SEC 50 0 0 88% 51% 3%
114 Texas A&M SEC 50 0 0 89% 52% 3%
115 Tennessee SEC 50 0 0 88% 52% 3%
116 Florida SEC 50 0 0 94% 66% 4%
117 South Carolina SEC 50 0 0 89% 52% 3%
118 Arkansas SEC 50 0 0 88% 51% 3%
119 Baylor Big 12 50 0 0 70% 32% 2%
120 Iowa St. Big 12 50 0 0 70% 31% 2%
121 TCU Big 12 50 0 0 70% 32% 2%
122 Texas Big 12 50 0 0 79% 43% 3%
123 Oklahoma Big 12 50 0 0 81% 46% 3%
124 Oklahoma St. Big 12 49 0 0 67% 29% 2%
125 Texas Tech Big 12 49 0 0 68% 28% 2%
126 Kansas St. Big 12 49 0 0 67% 28% 2%
127 West Virginia Big 12 49 0 0 67% 28% 2%
128 Kansas Big 12 49 0 0 67% 29% 2%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot