PlayoffStatus.com

Sat Aug 27 10:15 am

NCAA Football - Week 1 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Boston College ACC 50 0 0 91% 58% 3%
2 Clemson ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
3 Florida St. ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
4 Louisville ACC 50 0 0 96% 73% 4%
 
5 N.C. State ACC 51 0 0 91% 57% 3%
6 Wake Forest ACC 50 0 0 91% 58% 3%
7 Syracuse ACC 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
8 Duke ACC 50 0 0 93% 61% 3%
9 Georgia Tech ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
10 Miami ACC 50 0 0 93% 62% 3%
11 North Carolina ACC 50 0 0 85% 42% 2%
12 Virginia ACC 50 0 0 93% 62% 3%
13 Virginia Tech ACC 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
14 Pittsburgh ACC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
15 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
16 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
17 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
18 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
19 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 51 0 0 91% 57% 3%
20 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 92% 60% 3%
21 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 92% 60% 3%
22 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
23 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 90% 58% 3%
24 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 90% 56% 3%
25 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
26 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
27 Indiana Big 10 50 0 0 94% 69% 4%
28 Ohio St. Big 10 50 0 0 94% 69% 4%
29 Penn St. Big 10 50 0 0 94% 69% 4%
30 Michigan Big 10 50 0 0 93% 65% 4%
31 Michigan St. Big 10 50 0 0 89% 56% 3%
32 Maryland Big 10 50 0 0 91% 59% 3%
33 Rutgers Big 10 50 0 0 89% 56% 3%
34 Wisconsin Big 10 50 0 0 94% 68% 4%
35 Purdue Big 10 50 0 0 89% 56% 3%
36 Illinois Big 10 50 0 0 89% 56% 3%
37 Iowa Big 10 50 0 0 88% 56% 3%
38 Minnesota Big 10 50 0 0 89% 55% 3%
39 Nebraska Big 10 50 0 0 94% 69% 4%
40 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 50 0 0 89% 54% 3%
41 Iowa St. Big 12 49 0 0 69% 29% 2%
42 Kansas Big 12 50 0 0 71% 32% 2%
43 Kansas St. Big 12 50 0 0 72% 32% 2%
44 TCU Big 12 49 0 0 68% 28% 2%
45 Baylor Big 12 49 0 0 71% 32% 2%
46 Oklahoma Big 12 49 0 0 81% 46% 3%
47 Oklahoma St. Big 12 49 0 0 68% 28% 2%
48 Texas Big 12 49 0 0 79% 43% 3%
49 West Virginia Big 12 49 0 0 63% 24% 2%
50 Texas Tech Big 12 49 0 0 67% 28% 2%
51 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 93% 64% 3%
52 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 94% 66% 4%
53 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 93% 63% 4%
54 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 50 0 0 93% 64% 3%
55 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 93% 64% 3%
56 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 91% 59% 3%
57 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 92% 61% 3%
58 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 50 0 0 92% 61% 3%
59 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 50 0 0 91% 58% 3%
60 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 94% 66% 3%
61 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 50 0 0 95% 71% 4%
62 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
63 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 51 0 0 93% 61% 3%
64 Ball State MAC 51 0 0 94% 67% 4%
65 Central Michigan C. Michigan MAC 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
66 Eastern Michigan E. Michigan MAC 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
67 Northern Illinois N. Illinois MAC 51 0 0 93% 62% 4%
68 Toledo MAC 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
69 Western Michigan W. Michigan MAC 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
70 Akron MAC 51 0 0 93% 64% 3%
71 Bowling Green MAC 51 0 0 93% 64% 3%
72 Buffalo MAC 51 0 0 92% 64% 4%
73 Kent State MAC 51 0 0 87% 48% 3%
74 Miami OH MAC 51 0 0 93% 63% 3%
75 Ohio MAC 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
76 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 93% 62% 4%
77 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 50 0 0 96% 74% 4%
78 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
79 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 50 0 0 91% 58% 3%
80 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 92% 62% 3%
81 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 92% 62% 4%
82 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 92% 63% 3%
83 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 92% 63% 3%
84 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 93% 62% 3%
85 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 1 96% 73% 4%
86 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 51 0 0 92% 62% 4%
87 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 50 0 0 92% 62% 3%
88 Notre Dame Independent Ind. 50 0 0 83% 45% 3%
89 Army Independent Ind. 51 0 0 71% 25% 2%
90 BYU Independent Ind. 50 0 0 78% 35% 2%
91 Massachusetts Independent Ind. 50 0 0 78% 34% 2%
92 California PAC 12 50 1 0 95% 72% 4%
93 Oregon PAC 12 50 0 0 90% 59% 3%
94 Oregon St. PAC 12 50 0 0 89% 56% 3%
95 Stanford PAC 12 50 0 0 94% 71% 4%
96 Washington PAC 12 50 0 0 88% 55% 3%
97 Washington St. PAC 12 50 0 0 88% 56% 3%
98 Arizona PAC 12 50 0 0 86% 52% 3%
99 Arizona St. PAC 12 51 0 0 90% 59% 3%
100 Colorado PAC 12 50 0 0 89% 56% 3%
101 UCLA PAC 12 50 0 0 94% 72% 4%
102 USC PAC 12 50 0 0 95% 72% 4%
103 Utah PAC 12 50 0 0 90% 59% 3%
104 Florida SEC 50 0 0 89% 53% 3%
105 South Carolina SEC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
106 Tennessee SEC 50 0 0 89% 53% 3%
107 Vanderbilt SEC 50 0 0 92% 62% 3%
108 Kentucky SEC 50 0 0 90% 57% 3%
109 Georgia SEC 50 0 0 92% 60% 3%
110 Missouri SEC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
111 Auburn SEC 50 0 0 89% 53% 3%
112 Alabama SEC 50 0 0 90% 53% 3%
113 Ole Miss SEC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
114 Mississippi St. SEC 50 0 0 93% 61% 3%
115 LSU SEC 50 0 0 91% 56% 3%
116 Arkansas SEC 50 0 0 91% 57% 3%
117 Texas A&M SEC 50 0 0 89% 53% 3%
118 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
119 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 34% 2%
120 LA Monroe Sunbelt 50 0 0 79% 38% 2%
121 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 50 0 0 79% 39% 2%
122 Idaho Sunbelt 50 0 0 79% 39% 2%
123 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 87% 54% 3%
124 Troy Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 35% 2%
125 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 85% 50% 3%
126 South Alabama Sunbelt 50 0 0 76% 35% 2%
127 Georgia St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 77% 35% 2%
128 Texas St. Sunbelt 50 0 0 75% 35% 2%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot