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NCAA Football - Week 1 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 UCLA PAC 12 66 1 0 99% 90% 13%
2 Washington PAC 12 65 1 0 98% 82% 12%
3 California PAC 12 65 1 0 97% 75% 10%
4 Ohio St. Big 10 64 1 0 98% 79% 11%
 
5 Penn St. Big 10 64 1 0 X X X
6 Rutgers Big 10 64 1 0 95% 63% 8%
7 USC PAC 12 64 1 0 99% 91% 11%
8 LSU SEC 63 1 0 97% 71% 9%
9 Arizona PAC 12 63 1 0 99% 87% 11%
10 Boston College ACC 63 1 0 95% 65% 8%
11 Texas A&M SEC 63 1 0 94% 62% 8%
12 Michigan Big 10 63 1 0 98% 81% 9%
13 UTEP Conference USA 62 1 0 93% 60% 8%
14 Florida St. ACC 62 1 0 88% 46% 7%
15 Notre Dame Independent 62 1 0 93% 59% 8%
16 Colorado St. Mountain West 62 1 0 84% 40% 7%
17 Ohio MAC 62 1 0 85% 43% 7%
18 Marshall Conference USA 62 1 0 84% 39% 6%
19 Purdue Big 10 61 1 0 95% 63% 7%
20 UTSA Conference USA 61 1 0 80% 34% 6%
21 Nebraska Big 10 61 1 0 90% 48% 6%
22 W. Kentucky Conference USA 61 1 0 96% 69% 8%
23 Auburn SEC 61 1 0 96% 69% 7%
24 LA Monroe Sunbelt 61 1 0 83% 43% 6%
25 Ole Miss SEC 60 1 0 94% 62% 6%
26 Mississippi St. SEC 60 1 0 95% 66% 6%
27 BYU Independent 60 1 0 44% 7% 3%
28 N.C. State ACC 60 1 0 92% 56% 6%
29 Temple American Athletic 60 1 0 43% 9% 3%
30 Alabama SEC 60 1 0 92% 56% 6%
31 Tennessee SEC 60 1 0 93% 60% 6%
32 Louisville ACC 60 1 0 89% 47% 6%
33 Georgia SEC 60 1 0 82% 37% 5%
34 Oklahoma Big 12 59 1 0 71% 29% 5%
35 Texas Big 12 59 1 0 73% 30% 5%
36 Tulsa American Athletic 59 1 0 76% 32% 5%
37 UAB Conference USA 59 1 0 77% 28% 4%
38 Baylor Big 12 58 1 0 44% 10% 2%
39 Stanford PAC 12 56 1 0 99% 87% 5%
40 Oregon PAC 12 55 1 0 98% 78% 5%
41 Arizona St. PAC 12 55 1 0 98% 78% 5%
42 Utah PAC 12 55 1 0 97% 76% 5%
43 Michigan St. Big 10 55 1 0 99% 87% 5%
44 Oregon St. PAC 12 55 1 0 95% 67% 4%
45 Illinois Big 10 54 1 0 99% 82% 4%
46 Indiana Big 10 54 1 0 98% 80% 4%
47 Maryland Big 10 54 1 0 98% 77% 4%
48 Minnesota Big 10 54 1 0 97% 72% 4%
49 Syracuse ACC 53 1 0 97% 71% 4%
50 Kentucky SEC 53 1 0 98% 78% 3%
51 Iowa Big 10 53 1 0 92% 52% 3%
52 Eastern Michigan MAC 53 1 0 91% 55% 3%
53 North Carolina ACC 53 1 0 93% 57% 3%
54 Central Michigan MAC 53 1 0 92% 59% 3%
55 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 53 1 0 94% 60% 3%
56 San Jose State Mountain West 52 1 0 87% 46% 3%
57 Nevada Mountain West 52 1 0 87% 46% 3%
58 Texas St. Sunbelt 52 1 0 71% 27% 2%
59 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 52 1 0 72% 29% 2%
60 Pittsburgh ACC 52 1 0 86% 42% 2%
61 Akron MAC 52 1 0 90% 52% 3%
62 Virginia Tech ACC 52 1 0 90% 50% 3%
63 Wyoming Mountain West 52 1 0 78% 32% 2%
64 Missouri SEC 52 1 0 90% 50% 3%
65 Old Dominion Conference USA 52 1 0 86% 42% 2%
66 Northern Illinois MAC 52 1 0 79% 34% 2%
67 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 52 1 0 65% 22% 2%
68 San Diego State Mountain West 52 1 0 78% 32% 2%
69 Georgia Tech ACC 52 1 0 87% 44% 2%
70 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 52 1 0 60% 18% 2%
71 Ball State MAC 52 1 0 73% 25% 2%
72 Memphis American Athletic 52 1 0 68% 25% 2%
73 Duke ACC 52 1 0 79% 32% 2%
74 Air Force Mountain West 52 1 0 77% 32% 2%
75 Kansas St. Big 12 52 1 0 64% 21% 2%
76 Texas Tech Big 12 52 1 0 58% 17% 1%
77 Toledo MAC 51 1 0 70% 24% 2%
78 Buffalo MAC 51 1 0 68% 23% 2%
79 TCU Big 12 51 1 0 47% 12% 1%
80 South Florida American Athletic 51 1 0 45% 9% 1%
81 East Carolina American Athletic 51 1 0 50% 13% 1%
82 Florida SEC 50 0 0 97% 72% 3%
83 Idaho Sunbelt 49 0 0 82% 41% 2%
84 Georgia St. Sunbelt 49 0 0 63% 20% 2%
85 Kansas Big 12 49 0 0 62% 19% 1%
86 South Alabama Sunbelt 48 0 0 60% 18% 1%
87 Army Independent 48 0 0 30% 3% 1%
88 Cincinnati American Athletic 48 0 0 65% 22% 1%
89 Washington St. PAC 12 40 0 1 87% 47% < 1%
90 Arkansas SEC 40 0 1 85% 34% < 1%
91 Colorado PAC 12 40 0 1 90% 53% < 1%
92 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 39 0 1 86% 42% < 1%
93 Wake Forest ACC 39 0 1 73% 25% < 1%
94 Clemson ACC 39 0 1 69% 21% < 1%
95 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 39 0 1 76% 29% < 1%
96 Western Michigan MAC 39 0 1 62% 17% < 1%
97 Miami ACC 39 0 1 71% 18% < 1%
98 Fresno State Mountain West 39 0 1 50% 10% < 1%
99 Southern Miss Conference USA 39 0 1 68% 20% < 1%
100 Rice Conference USA 39 0 1 71% 23% < 1%
101 Northwestern Big 10 39 0 1 86% 41% < 1%
102 Utah St. Mountain West 39 0 1 64% 17% < 1%
103 UNLV Mountain West 39 0 1 61% 16% < 1%
104 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 38 0 1 23% 3% < 1%
105 Bowling Green MAC 38 0 1 46% 9% < 1%
106 Troy Sunbelt 38 0 1 28% 4% < 1%
107 West Virginia Big 12 38 0 1 22% 2% < 1%
108 Boise State Mountain West 38 0 1 63% 19% < 1%
109 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 38 0 1 8% < 1% < 1%
110 North Texas Conference USA 38 0 1 41% 6% < 1%
111 Tulane American Athletic 38 0 1 24% 2% < 1%
112 Wisconsin Big 10 38 0 1 70% 22% < 1%
113 SMU American Athletic 37 0 1 31% 5% < 1%
114 Navy Independent 37 0 1 45% 8% < 1%
115 Virginia ACC 37 0 1 69% 22% < 1%
116 Hawaii Mountain West 37 0 1 61% 17% < 1%
117 New Mexico Mountain West 37 0 1 70% 24% < 1%
118 Vanderbilt SEC 37 0 1 65% 19% < 1%
119 South Carolina SEC 37 0 1 67% 17% < 1%
120 Miami OH MAC 36 0 1 58% 15% < 1%
121 Massachusetts MAC 36 0 1 55% 13% < 1%
122 Oklahoma St. Big 12 36 0 1 22% 2% < 1%
123 Kent State MAC 36 0 1 53% 11% < 1%
124 UCF American Athletic 35 0 1 20% 2% < 1%
125 Houston American Athletic 35 0 1 18% 2% < 1%
126 Connecticut American Athletic 35 0 1 13% 1% < 1%
127 Florida Intl. Conference USA 22 0 1 33% 4% < 1%
128 Iowa St. Big 12 22 0 1 21% 2% < 1%
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot