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NCAA Football - Week 9 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ole Miss SEC 102 7 0 > 99% 99% 65%
2 Mississippi St. SEC 99 6 0 > 99% 98% 56%
3 Florida St. ACC 99 7 0 > 99% 93% 60%
4 Auburn SEC 92 5 1 > 99% 88% 30%
 
5 Oregon PAC 12 92 6 1 > 99% 80% 33%
6 Alabama SEC 91 6 1 98% 49% 25%
7 Arizona PAC 12 87 5 1 98% 55% 19%
8 UCLA PAC 12 87 5 2 87% 14% 14%
9 Notre Dame Independent 86 6 1 73% 10% 13%
10 Georgia SEC 83 6 1 94% 23% 11%
11 Arizona St. PAC 12 83 5 1 > 99% 71% 15%
12 Utah PAC 12 82 5 1 > 99% 74% 14%
13 USC PAC 12 81 5 2 94% 27% 9%
14 Michigan St. Big 10 80 6 1 74% 8% 7%
15 Minnesota Big 10 80 6 1 75% 9% 8%
16 Nebraska Big 10 80 6 1 63% 3% 6%
17 TCU Big 12 79 5 1 7% < 1% 1%
18 Kansas St. Big 12 78 5 1 25% < 1% 2%
19 LSU SEC 77 6 2 25% < 1% 2%
20 Marshall Conference USA 77 7 0 1% < 1% < 1%
21 West Virginia Big 12 75 5 2 2% < 1% < 1%
22 Colorado St. Mountain West 75 6 1 1% < 1% < 1%
23 Ohio St. Big 10 75 5 1 59% 5% 4%
24 Clemson ACC 74 5 2 2% < 1% < 1%
25 Baylor Big 12 74 6 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
26 Oklahoma Big 12 74 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
27 Boise State Mountain West 73 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
28 Louisville ACC 72 6 2 9% < 1% < 1%
29 Duke ACC 71 6 1 2% < 1% < 1%
30 Texas A&M SEC 71 5 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
31 Missouri SEC 70 5 2 11% < 1% < 1%
32 Maryland Big 10 69 5 2 10% < 1% < 1%
33 Miami ACC 67 5 3 1% < 1% < 1%
34 Georgia Tech ACC 67 5 2 8% < 1% < 1%
35 Washington PAC 12 66 5 2 28% 1% 1%
36 Oklahoma St. Big 12 66 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
37 Oregon St. PAC 12 66 4 2 48% 1% 1%
38 Kentucky SEC 66 5 2 58% 1% 1%
39 Rutgers Big 10 64 5 2 1% < 1% < 1%
40 Stanford PAC 12 64 4 3 34% < 1% < 1%
41 East Carolina American Athletic 62 6 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
42 California PAC 12 62 4 3 5% < 1% < 1%
43 South Carolina SEC 61 4 3 1% < 1% < 1%
44 Penn St. Big 10 60 4 2 X X X
45 Florida SEC 60 3 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
46 Nevada Mountain West 60 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
47 Iowa Big 10 59 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
48 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 57 5 3 < 1% X < 1%
49 Wisconsin Big 10 57 4 2 3% < 1% < 1%
50 Boston College ACC 57 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
51 Virginia ACC 57 4 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
52 Arkansas SEC 57 3 4 X X X
53 Air Force Mountain West 54 5 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
54 Tennessee SEC 54 3 4 X X X
55 Utah St. Mountain West 53 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
56 UCF American Athletic 53 4 2 < 1% X < 1%
57 N.C. State ACC 52 4 4 X X X
58 Virginia Tech ACC 52 4 4 X X X
59 BYU Independent 52 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
60 Pittsburgh ACC 52 4 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
61 San Jose State Mountain West 51 3 3 < 1% X < 1%
62 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 50 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
63 North Carolina ACC 50 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
64 Memphis American Athletic 50 3 3 X X X
65 Syracuse ACC 49 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
66 Northwestern Big 10 48 3 4 < 1% < 1% < 1%
67 Michigan Big 10 48 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
68 Texas Big 12 47 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
69 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 47 5 2 X X X
70 Texas Tech Big 12 46 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
71 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 46 4 3 X X X
72 Rice Conference USA 45 3 3 < 1% X < 1%
73 Northern Illinois MAC 45 5 2 < 1% X < 1%
74 Washington St. PAC 12 45 2 5 < 1% X < 1%
75 South Alabama Sunbelt 44 4 2 < 1% X < 1%
76 Indiana Big 10 44 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
77 UAB Conference USA 44 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
78 Wyoming Mountain West 44 3 4 X X X
79 San Diego State Mountain West 44 4 3 < 1% X < 1%
80 Colorado PAC 12 42 2 5 < 1% X < 1%
81 Temple American Athletic 42 4 2 < 1% X < 1%
82 Fresno State Mountain West 42 3 5 X X X
83 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 42 4 3 X X X
84 Purdue Big 10 42 3 5 X X X
85 Southern Miss Conference USA 41 3 4 X X X
86 Houston American Athletic 41 4 3 X X X
87 Bowling Green MAC 40 5 3 X X X
88 Illinois Big 10 40 3 4 < 1% X < 1%
89 Cincinnati American Athletic 40 3 3 X X X
90 UTEP Conference USA 40 3 3 < 1% X < 1%
91 Akron MAC 40 4 3 X X X
92 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 39 3 4 X X X
93 Toledo MAC 38 4 3 X X X
94 LA Monroe Sunbelt 37 3 3 X X X
95 Navy Independent 37 3 4 X X X
96 Old Dominion Conference USA 36 3 4 X X X
97 Western Michigan MAC 36 4 3 X X X
98 Iowa St. Big 12 36 2 5 X X X
99 Vanderbilt SEC 35 2 5 X X X
100 Kansas Big 12 34 2 5 X X X
101 Ohio MAC 34 4 4 X X X
102 Central Michigan MAC 31 4 4 X X X
103 Wake Forest ACC 31 2 5 X X X
104 South Florida American Athletic 30 3 4 X X X
105 W. Kentucky Conference USA 30 2 4 X X X
106 UNLV Mountain West 28 2 5 X X X
107 UTSA Conference USA 28 2 5 X X X
108 Florida Intl. Conference USA 28 3 5 X X X
109 Hawaii Mountain West 27 2 5 X X X
110 New Mexico Mountain West 25 2 5 X X X
111 Texas St. Sunbelt 25 3 3 X X X
112 Tulane American Athletic 23 2 5 X X X
113 Eastern Michigan MAC 18 2 5 X X X
114 Buffalo MAC 18 3 4 X X X
115 North Texas Conference USA 17 2 5 X X X
116 Tulsa American Athletic 13 1 6 X X X
117 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 12 2 5 X X X
118 SMU American Athletic 11 0 6 X X X
119 Ball State MAC 11 2 5 X X X
120 Army Independent 10 2 5 X X X
121 Connecticut American Athletic 9 1 6 X X X
122 Massachusetts MAC 9 2 6 X X X
123 Kent State MAC 6 1 6 X X X
124 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 6 2 6 X X X
125 Troy Sunbelt 5 1 6 X X X
126 Idaho Sunbelt 2 1 6 X X X
127 Miami OH MAC 2 1 7 X X X
128 Georgia St. Sunbelt 1 0 6 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot