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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Alabama SEC 111 12 1 - - 100%
2 Oregon PAC 12 109 12 1 - - 100%
3 Florida St. ACC 106 13 0 - - 100%
4 Ohio St. Big 10 102 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Baylor Big 12 96 11 1 - - X
6 TCU Big 12 95 11 1 - - X
7 Mississippi St. SEC 92 10 2 - - X
8 Michigan St. Big 10 89 10 2 - - X
9 Ole Miss SEC 89 9 3 - - X
10 Arizona PAC 12 88 10 3 - - X
11 Kansas St. Big 12 88 9 3 - - X
12 Georgia Tech ACC 87 10 3 - - X
13 Georgia SEC 86 9 3 - - X
14 UCLA PAC 12 85 9 3 - - X
15 Arizona St. PAC 12 85 9 3 - - X
16 Missouri SEC 83 10 3 - - X
17 Clemson ACC 82 9 3 - - X
18 Wisconsin Big 10 82 10 3 - - X
19 Auburn SEC 81 8 4 - - X
20 Boise State Mountain West 80 11 2 - - X
21 Louisville ACC 79 9 3 - - X
22 Utah PAC 12 79 8 4 - - X
23 LSU SEC 78 8 4 - - X
24 USC PAC 12 76 8 4 - - X
25 Minnesota Big 10 76 8 4 - - X
26 Nebraska Big 10 76 9 3 - - X
27 Colorado St. Mountain West 76 10 2 - - X
28 Marshall Conference USA 74 12 1 - - X
29 Stanford PAC 12 72 7 5 - - X
30 Oklahoma Big 12 72 8 4 - - X
31 Notre Dame Independent 69 7 5 - - X
32 Washington PAC 12 69 8 5 - - X
33 West Virginia Big 12 69 7 5 - - X
34 Texas A&M SEC 69 7 5 - - X
35 Arkansas SEC 68 6 6 - - X
36 Northern Illinois MAC 65 11 2 - - X
37 Air Force Mountain West 65 9 3 - - X
38 Duke ACC 65 9 3 - - X
39 Rutgers Big 10 64 7 5 - - X
40 Florida SEC 64 6 5 - - X
41 Cincinnati American Athletic 63 9 3 - - X
42 Maryland Big 10 63 7 5 - - X
43 Boston College ACC 63 7 5 - - X
44 Utah St. Mountain West 63 9 4 - - X
45 N.C. State ACC 63 7 5 - - X
46 BYU Independent 62 8 4 - - X
47 Memphis American Athletic 62 9 3 - - X
48 Miami ACC 60 6 6 - - X
49 Tennessee SEC 60 6 6 - - X
50 Texas Big 12 60 6 6 - - X
51 Nevada Mountain West 58 7 5 - - X
52 Oklahoma St. Big 12 58 6 6 - - X
53 UCF American Athletic 58 9 3 - - X
54 North Carolina ACC 57 6 6 - - X
55 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 56 8 5 - - X
56 South Carolina SEC 56 6 6 - - X
57 Illinois Big 10 55 6 6 - - X
58 California PAC 12 55 5 7 - - X
59 Virginia Tech ACC 55 6 6 - - X
60 Iowa Big 10 54 7 5 - - X
61 Navy Independent 53 7 5 - - X
62 Virginia ACC 52 5 7 - - X
63 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 51 9 3 - - X
64 East Carolina American Athletic 50 8 4 - - X
65 Penn St. Big 10 50 6 6 - - X
66 Oregon St. PAC 12 50 5 7 - - X
67 Toledo MAC 50 8 4 - - X
68 W. Kentucky Conference USA 50 7 5 - - X
69 Michigan Big 10 49 5 7 - - X
70 Rice Conference USA 49 7 5 - - X
71 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 48 8 4 - - X
72 Fresno State Mountain West 47 6 7 - - X
73 Pittsburgh ACC 47 6 6 - - X
74 Kentucky SEC 47 5 7 - - X
75 San Diego State Mountain West 47 7 5 - - X
76 Northwestern Big 10 46 5 7 - - X
77 UTEP Conference USA 45 7 5 - - X
78 Western Michigan MAC 45 8 4 - - X
79 Washington St. PAC 12 43 3 9 - - X
80 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 43 6 6 - - X
81 Texas Tech Big 12 41 4 8 - - X
82 Houston American Athletic 40 7 5 - - X
83 UAB Conference USA 39 6 6 - - X
84 Old Dominion Conference USA 38 6 6 - - X
85 Temple American Athletic 38 6 6 - - X
86 Indiana Big 10 37 4 8 - - X
87 Wyoming Mountain West 37 4 8 - - X
88 Bowling Green MAC 37 7 6 - - X
89 Central Michigan MAC 36 7 5 - - X
90 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 35 7 5 - - X
91 Colorado PAC 12 34 2 10 - - X
92 Syracuse ACC 34 3 9 - - X
93 Kansas Big 12 33 3 9 - - X
94 New Mexico Mountain West 32 4 8 - - X
95 South Alabama Sunbelt 32 6 6 - - X
96 Texas St. Sunbelt 32 7 5 - - X
97 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 30 7 5 - - X
98 Purdue Big 10 30 3 9 - - X
99 Wake Forest ACC 29 3 9 - - X
100 Ohio MAC 28 6 6 - - X
101 Vanderbilt SEC 28 3 9 - - X
102 South Florida American Athletic 25 4 8 - - X
103 UTSA Conference USA 25 4 8 - - X
104 Hawaii Mountain West 25 4 9 - - X
105 Iowa St. Big 12 25 2 10 - - X
106 San Jose State Mountain West 24 3 9 - - X
107 Southern Miss Conference USA 23 3 9 - - X
108 Tulane American Athletic 21 3 9 - - X
109 Ball State MAC 21 5 7 - - X
110 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 20 3 9 - - X
111 Florida Intl. Conference USA 19 4 8 - - X
112 LA Monroe Sunbelt 17 4 8 - - X
113 Akron MAC 16 5 7 - - X
114 North Texas Conference USA 16 4 8 - - X
115 Army Independent 15 4 8 - - X
116 UNLV Mountain West 14 2 11 - - X
117 Buffalo MAC 12 5 7 - - X
118 Kent State MAC 9 3 9 - - X
119 Tulsa American Athletic 8 2 10 - - X
120 Connecticut American Athletic 8 2 10 - - X
121 SMU American Athletic 6 1 11 - - X
122 Eastern Michigan MAC 5 2 10 - - X
123 Troy Sunbelt 4 3 9 - - X
124 Massachusetts MAC 2 3 9 - - X
125 Miami OH MAC 1 2 10 - - X
126 New Mexico St. Sunbelt -5 2 10 - - X
127 Georgia St. Sunbelt -9 0 11 - - X
128 Idaho Sunbelt -11 1 10 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot