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BCS National Championship Game Participation Probabilities

Will your team play in the BCS National Championship Game? The BCS National Championship Game Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team plays in the championship game depended upon two ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.


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BCS National Championship Game Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference Record  BCS National Championship Game
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Current
1 Alabama SEC 10 0 > 99% 57%
2 Florida SEC 10 0 > 99% 45%
 
3 Texas Big 12 10 0 99% 60%
4 TCU Mountain West 10 0 11% 9%
5 Cincinnati Big East 10 0 51% 28%
6 Georgia Tech ACC 10 1 2% 1%
7 Boise St. WAC 10 0 < 1% < 1%
8 Oregon PAC 10 8 2 < 1% < 1%
9 Ohio St. Big 10 9 2 < 1% < 1%
10 Iowa Big 10 9 2 < 1% < 1%
11 Pittsburgh Big East 9 1 < 1% < 1%
12 Virginia Tech ACC 7 3 < 1% < 1%
13 LSU SEC 8 2 < 1% < 1%
14 Houston Conference USA 8 2 < 1% < 1%
15 Oklahoma St. Big 12 9 2 < 1% < 1%
16 USC PAC 10 7 3 < 1% < 1%
17 Wisconsin Big 10 8 2 < 1% < 1%
18 BYU Mountain West 8 2 < 1% < 1%
19 Miami ACC 7 3 < 1% < 1%
20 Utah Mountain West 8 2 < 1% < 1%
21 Penn St. Big 10 9 2 < 1% < 1%
22 Oregon St. PAC 10 7 3 < 1% < 1%
23 Stanford PAC 10 7 3 < 1% < 1%
24 Clemson ACC 7 3 < 1% < 1%
25 Arizona PAC 10 6 3 < 1% < 1%
26 California PAC 10 7 3 < 1% < 1%
27 West Virginia Big East 7 3 < 1% < 1%
28 Nebraska Big 12 7 3 < 1% < 1%
29 Central Michigan MAC 9 2 < 1% < 1%
30 Arkansas SEC 6 4 < 1% < 1%
31 Rutgers Big East 7 2 < 1% < 1%
32 Navy Independent 8 3 X X
33 Boston College ACC 7 3 X X
34 North Carolina ACC 7 3 < 1% < 1%
35 Troy Sunbelt 7 3 X X
36 Notre Dame Independent 6 4 < 1% < 1%
37 Georgia SEC 6 4 X X
38 South Florida Big East 6 3 X X
39 Oklahoma Big 12 6 4 X X
40 Ole Miss SEC 7 3 X X
41 Auburn SEC 7 4 X X
42 UCLA PAC 10 5 5 X X
43 Missouri Big 12 6 4 X X
44 Idaho WAC 7 4 X X
45 Temple MAC 8 2 X X
46 Kentucky SEC 6 4 X X
47 Fresno St. WAC 6 4 X X
48 Nevada WAC 7 3 X X
49 South Carolina SEC 6 5 X X
50 Air Force Mountain West 7 4 X X
51 Texas Tech Big 12 6 4 X X
52 Middle Tenn. St. Sunbelt 7 3 X X
53 Connecticut Big East 4 5 X X
54 Florida St. ACC 5 5 X X
55 Minnesota Big 10 6 5 X X
56 East Carolina Conference USA 6 4 X X
57 UCF Conference USA 6 4 X X
58 Tennessee SEC 5 5 X X
59 SMU Conference USA 6 4 X X
60 Michigan St. Big 10 6 5 X X
61 Northwestern Big 10 7 4 X X
62 Mississippi St. SEC 4 6 X X
63 Ohio MAC 7 3 X X
64 Northern Illinois MAC 7 3 X X
65 Iowa St. Big 12 6 5 X X
66 LA Monroe Sunbelt 6 4 X X
67 Washington PAC 10 3 7 X X
68 Texas A&M Big 12 5 5 X X
69 Kansas St. Big 12 6 5 X X
70 Southern Miss Conference USA 6 4 X X
71 Marshall Conference USA 5 5 X X
72 Arizona St. PAC 10 4 6 X X
73 Bowling Green MAC 5 5 X X
74 Louisville Big East 4 6 X X
75 Kansas Big 12 5 5 X X
76 Baylor Big 12 4 6 X X
77 Purdue Big 10 4 7 X X
78 LA Lafayette Sunbelt 5 5 X X
79 Wyoming Mountain West 5 5 X X
80 Michigan Big 10 5 6 X X
81 UAB Conference USA 5 5 X X
82 Colorado St. Mountain West 3 7 X X
83 Toledo MAC 4 6 X X
84 UNLV Mountain West 4 7 X X
85 Duke ACC 5 5 X X
86 San Diego St. Mountain West 4 6 X X
87 Indiana Big 10 4 7 X X
88 Wake Forest ACC 4 7 X X
89 Syracuse Big East 3 7 X X
90 Colorado Big 12 3 8 X X
91 Virginia ACC 3 7 X X
92 Hawaii WAC 4 6 X X
93 Western Michigan MAC 5 6 X X
94 N.C. State ACC 4 6 X X
95 Louisiana Tech WAC 3 7 X X
96 Tulsa Conference USA 4 6 X X
97 Florida Atlantic Sunbelt 3 6 X X
98 Florida Intl. Sunbelt 3 7 X X
99 Buffalo MAC 4 7 X X
100 Kent State MAC 5 5 X X
101 Illinois Big 10 3 7 X X
102 UTEP Conference USA 3 7 X X
103 Tulane Conference USA 3 7 X X
104 Washington St. PAC 10 1 9 X X
105 Utah St. WAC 3 7 X X
106 Army Independent 4 6 X X
107 Vanderbilt SEC 2 9 X X
108 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 2 7 X X
109 San Jose St. WAC 1 8 X X
110 Maryland ACC 2 8 X X
111 New Mexico St. WAC 3 7 X X
112 North Texas Sunbelt 2 8 X X
113 Akron MAC 2 8 X X
114 Memphis Conference USA 2 8 X X
115 Miami OH MAC 1 11 X X
116 Rice Conference USA 1 9 X X
117 New Mexico Mountain West 0 10 X X
118 Ball State MAC 1 10 X X
119 Western Kentucky Independent 0 10 X X
120 Eastern Michigan MAC 0 10 X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will play in the championship game - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will play in the championship game - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot

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