PlayoffStatus.com↓≡

Home ► NCAA Football ► NCAA Football Participation Probabilities
Mon Dec 8 6:30 am

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Indiana Big 10Big 10 118 13 0 - - 100%
2 Georgia SECSEC 116 12 1 - - 100%
3 Oregon Big 10Big 10 114 11 1 - - 100%
4 Ole Miss SECSEC 114 11 1 - - 100%
5 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 114 12 1 - - 100%
6 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 113 12 1 - - 100%
7 Oklahoma SECSEC 109 10 2 - - 100%
8 Texas A&M SECSEC 107 11 1 - - 100%
9 Alabama SECSEC 104 10 3 - - 100%
10 Miami ACCACC 100 10 2 - - 100%
11 Texas SECSEC 96 9 3 - - X
 
12 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 96 10 2 - - X
13 BYU Big 12Big 12 95 11 2 - - X
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 93 10 2 - - X
15 Utah Big 12Big 12 91 10 2 - - X
16 USC Big 10Big 10 88 9 3 - - X
17 Arizona Big 12Big 12 87 9 3 - - X
18 Michigan Big 10Big 10 85 9 3 - - X
19 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 83 11 2 - - 100%
20 Virginia ACCACC 82 10 3 - - X
21 Houston Big 12Big 12 81 9 3 - - X
22 Iowa Big 10Big 10 80 8 4 - - X
23 Georgia Tech ACCACC 79 9 3 - - X
24 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 78 12 1 - - 100%
25 Illinois Big 10Big 10 75 8 4 - - X
26 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 75 8 4 - - X
27 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 9 3 - - X
28 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 73 11 2 - - X
29 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 9 2 - - X
30 TCU Big 12Big 12 71 8 4 - - X
31 LSU SECSEC 71 7 5 - - X
32 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 70 8 4 - - X
33 Washington Big 10Big 10 70 8 4 - - X
34 Tennessee SECSEC 70 8 4 - - X
35 Duke ACCACC 70 8 5 - - X
36 Missouri SECSEC 68 8 4 - - X
37 N.C. State ACCACC 66 7 5 - - X
38 Pittsburgh ACCACC 66 8 4 - - X
39 Louisville ACCACC 65 8 4 - - X
40 SMU ACCACC 64 8 4 - - X
41 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 64 9 3 - - X
42 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 64 10 3 - - X
43 Wake Forest ACCACC 63 8 4 - - X
44 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 63 9 4 - - X
45 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 63 8 4 - - X
46 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 61 7 5 - - X
47 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 61 9 3 - - X
48 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 59 10 3 - - X
49 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 59 8 4 - - X
50 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 58 6 6 - - X
51 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 58 7 5 - - X
52 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 58 7 5 - - X
53 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 58 6 6 - - X
54 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 56 9 3 - - X
55 Clemson ACCACC 54 7 5 - - X
56 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 54 4 8 - - X
57 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 53 9 3 - - X
58 Florida SECSEC 53 4 8 - - X
59 California ACCACC 52 7 5 - - X
60 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
61 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 52 5 7 - - X
62 Kentucky SECSEC 51 5 7 - - X
63 Auburn SECSEC 51 5 7 - - X
64 Western Michigan MACMAC 51 9 4 - - X
65 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 49 6 6 - - X
66 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 6 6 - - X
67 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 49 5 7 - - X
68 South Carolina SECSEC 48 4 8 - - X
69 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 48 8 4 - - X
70 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 48 8 5 - - X
71 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 47 8 4 - - X
72 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 47 6 5 - - X
73 Kansas Big 12Big 12 46 5 7 - - X
74 Baylor Big 12Big 12 46 5 7 - - X
75 Florida St. ACCACC 45 5 7 - - X
76 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 45 8 4 - - X
77 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 45 4 8 - - X
78 Ohio MACMAC 44 8 4 - - X
79 UCLA Big 10Big 10 44 3 9 - - X
80 Toledo MACMAC 43 8 4 - - X
81 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 42 6 6 - - X
82 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 42 7 5 - - X
83 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 42 6 6 - - X
84 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 42 8 5 - - X
85 UCF Big 12Big 12 41 5 7 - - X
86 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 7 - - X
87 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 40 7 5 - - X
88 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 40 7 5 - - X
89 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 40 6 6 - - X
90 Stanford ACCACC 40 4 8 - - X
91 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 39 4 8 - - X
92 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 39 7 5 - - X
93 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 5 7 - - X
94 Colorado Big 12Big 12 37 3 9 - - X
95 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 37 6 6 - - X
96 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 36 6 6 - - X
97 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 36 6 6 - - X
98 Miami OH MACMAC 35 7 6 - - X
99 Central Michigan MACMAC 35 7 5 - - X
100 Maryland Big 10Big 10 35 4 8 - - X
101 Virginia Tech ACCACC 34 3 9 - - X
102 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 10 - - X
103 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 33 5 7 - - X
104 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 31 4 8 - - X
105 Syracuse ACCACC 31 3 9 - - X
106 North Carolina ACCACC 31 4 8 - - X
107 Arkansas SECSEC 31 2 10 - - X
108 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 30 4 8 - - X
109 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 28 6 6 - - X
110 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 28 5 7 - - X
111 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 24 4 8 - - X
112 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 23 4 8 - - X
113 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 23 4 8 - - X
114 Kent State MACMAC 22 5 7 - - X
115 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 18 4 8 - - X
116 Boston College ACCACC 18 2 10 - - X
117 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 17 4 8 - - X
118 Buffalo MACMAC 16 5 7 - - X
119 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 15 3 9 - - X
120 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 15 2 10 - - X
121 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 15 1 11 - - X
122 Ball State MACMAC 14 4 8 - - X
123 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 14 4 8 - - X
124 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 14 3 9 - - X
125 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 14 3 9 - - X
126 Akron MACMAC 13 5 7 - - X
127 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 11 1 11 - - X
128 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 11 2 10 - - X
129 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 10 4 8 - - X
130 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 9 1 11 - - X
131 Bowling Green MACMAC 9 4 8 - - X
132 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 6 3 9 - - X
133 Northern Illinois MACMAC 3 3 9 - - X
134 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 2 2 10 - - X
135 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 0 2 10 - - X
136 UMass MACMAC -18 0 12 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot