PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Dec 8 7:00 pm

NCAA Football - Week 15 of 15

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team Conference Conf MWP RecordĀ  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Clemson ACC 106 13 0 - - 100%
2 Alabama SEC 105 12 1 - - 100%
3 Michigan St. Big 10 103 12 1 - - 100%
4 Oklahoma Big 12 102 11 1 - - 100%
 
5 Stanford PAC 12 101 11 2 - - X
6 Iowa Big 10 98 12 1 - - X
7 Ohio St. Big 10 98 11 1 - - X
8 Notre Dame Independent Ind. 92 10 2 - - X
9 Florida St. ACC 91 10 2 - - X
10 TCU Big 12 86 10 2 - - X
11 Ole Miss SEC 84 9 3 - - X
12 Northwestern N. Western Big 10 84 10 2 - - X
13 Oregon PAC 12 84 9 3 - - X
14 Michigan Big 10 84 9 3 - - X
15 North Carolina ACC 83 11 2 - - X
16 Oklahoma St. Big 12 82 10 2 - - X
17 Houston American Athletic Am. Athletic 82 11 1 X X X
18 LSU SEC 81 8 3 - - X
19 Temple American Athletic Am. Athletic 80 10 2 X X X
20 USC PAC 12 79 8 5 - - X
21 Baylor Big 12 79 9 3 - - X
22 Florida SEC 79 10 3 - - X
23 Utah PAC 12 77 9 3 - - X
24 Navy American Athletic Am. Athletic 77 9 2 X X X
25 Tennessee SEC 76 8 4 - - X
26 UCLA PAC 12 75 8 4 - - X
27 Wisconsin Big 10 75 9 3 - - X
28 Memphis American Athletic Am. Athletic 75 9 3 - - X
29 Bowling Green MAC 74 10 3 - - X
30 Pittsburgh ACC 73 8 4 - - X
31 W. Kentucky Conference USA Conf. USA 73 11 2 - - X
32 Toledo MAC 72 9 2 - - X
33 Mississippi St. SEC 72 8 4 - - X
34 California PAC 12 72 7 5 - - X
35 Miami ACC 71 8 4 - - X
36 Georgia SEC 71 9 3 - - X
37 BYU Independent Ind. 71 9 3 - - X
38 Texas A&M SEC 70 8 4 - - X
39 Penn St. Big 10 69 7 5 - - X
40 Arkansas SEC 69 7 5 - - X
41 Washington St. PAC 12 69 8 4 - - X
42 South Florida American Athletic Am. Athletic 63 8 4 - - X
43 Appalachian St. App. St. Sunbelt 63 10 2 - - X
44 Texas Tech Big 12 62 7 5 - - X
45 West Virginia Big 12 62 7 5 - - X
46 Louisville ACC 61 7 5 - - X
47 Washington PAC 12 60 6 6 - - X
48 Arizona St. PAC 12 60 6 6 - - X
49 San Diego State Mountain West Mntn West 59 10 3 - - X
50 Western Michigan W. Michigan MAC 58 7 5 - - X
51 Indiana Big 10 58 6 6 - - X
52 Cincinnati American Athletic Am. Athletic 57 7 5 - - X
53 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 57 9 3 - - X
54 Auburn SEC 57 6 6 - - X
55 Minnesota Big 10 56 5 7 - - X
56 Nebraska Big 10 55 5 7 - - X
57 N.C. State ACC 54 7 5 - - X
58 Ohio MAC 54 8 4 - - X
59 Arizona PAC 12 54 6 6 - - X
60 Marshall Conference USA Conf. USA 53 9 3 - - X
61 Texas Big 12 53 5 7 - - X
62 Central Michigan C. Michigan MAC 53 7 5 - - X
63 Northern Illinois N. Illinois MAC 52 8 5 - - X
64 Duke ACC 52 7 5 - - X
65 Kansas St. Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
66 Illinois Big 10 51 5 7 - - X
67 Virginia Tech ACC 51 6 6 - - X
68 Boise State Mountain West Mntn West 51 8 4 - - X
69 Southern Miss Conference USA Conf. USA 50 9 4 - - X
70 Louisiana Tech Conference USA Conf. USA 49 8 4 - - X
71 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 49 8 4 - - X
72 Air Force Mountain West Mntn West 49 8 5 - - X
73 Akron MAC 46 7 5 - - X
74 Missouri SEC 45 5 7 - - X
75 Connecticut American Athletic Am. Athletic 45 6 6 - - X
76 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA Conf. USA 44 7 5 - - X
77 Maryland Big 10 44 3 9 - - X
78 Tulsa American Athletic Am. Athletic 43 6 6 - - X
79 Utah St. Mountain West Mntn West 43 6 6 - - X
80 Vanderbilt SEC 41 4 8 - - X
81 East Carolina American Athletic Am. Athletic 41 5 7 - - X
82 Virginia ACC 40 4 8 - - X
83 Colorado St. Mountain West Mntn West 40 7 5 - - X
84 New Mexico Mountain West Mntn West 39 7 5 - - X
85 Rutgers Big 10 39 4 8 - - X
86 Syracuse ACC 39 4 8 - - X
87 Iowa St. Big 12 38 3 9 - - X
88 Georgia Tech ACC 36 3 9 - - X
89 Kentucky SEC 36 5 7 - - X
90 Colorado PAC 12 36 4 9 - - X
91 South Carolina SEC 32 3 9 - - X
92 Nevada Mountain West Mntn West 31 6 6 - - X
93 Georgia St. Sunbelt 31 6 6 - - X
94 Purdue Big 10 30 2 10 - - X
95 Wake Forest ACC 30 3 9 - - X
96 Oregon St. PAC 12 30 2 10 - - X
97 Buffalo MAC 29 5 7 - - X
98 South Alabama Sunbelt 28 5 7 - - X
99 San Jose State Mountain West Mntn West 28 5 7 - - X
100 Boston College ACC 27 3 9 - - X
101 Ball State MAC 23 3 9 - - X
102 Florida Intl. Conference USA Conf. USA 22 5 7 - - X
103 Rice Conference USA Conf. USA 21 5 7 - - X
104 Old Dominion Conference USA Conf. USA 21 5 7 - - X
105 UTEP Conference USA Conf. USA 21 5 7 - - X
106 Idaho Sunbelt 20 4 8 - - X
107 Troy Sunbelt 20 4 8 - - X
108 SMU American Athletic Am. Athletic 19 2 10 - - X
109 Kent State MAC 19 3 9 - - X
110 Fresno State Mountain West Mntn West 18 3 9 - - X
111 Tulane American Athletic Am. Athletic 18 3 9 - - X
112 Massachusetts Mass. MAC 16 3 9 - - X
113 Miami OH MAC 15 3 9 - - X
114 Florida Atlantic Conference USA Conf. USA 15 3 9 - - X
115 UNLV Mountain West Mntn West 14 3 9 - - X
116 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 14 4 8 - - X
117 Hawaii Mountain West Mntn West 12 3 10 - - X
118 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 11 3 9 - - X
119 Texas St. Sunbelt 11 3 9 - - X
120 UTSA Conference USA Conf. USA 11 3 9 - - X
121 Kansas Big 12 10 0 12 - - X
122 Wyoming Mountain West Mntn West 5 2 10 - - X
123 LA Monroe Sunbelt 4 2 11 - - X
124 North Texas Conference USA Conf. USA 2 1 11 - - X
125 Army Independent Ind. 1 2 9 X X X
126 UCF American Athletic Am. Athletic 0 0 12 - - X
127 Charlotte Conference USA Conf. USA 0 2 10 - - X
128 Eastern Michigan E. Michigan MAC -4 1 11 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot