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NCAA Football - Week 6 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 UCLA PAC 12 102 4 0 > 99% > 99% 63%
2 Arizona PAC 12 91 4 0 100% 99% 32%
3 Oregon PAC 12 89 4 0 > 99% > 99% 32%
4 Auburn SEC 87 4 0 > 99% 97% 24%
 
5 Alabama SEC 87 4 0 > 99% 96% 24%
6 Florida St. ACC 87 4 0 99% 79% 26%
7 Oklahoma Big 12 85 4 0 80% 22% 16%
8 Mississippi St. SEC 84 4 0 > 99% 84% 19%
9 Texas A&M SEC 84 5 0 > 99% 94% 19%
10 Nebraska Big 10 84 5 0 97% 53% 17%
11 Ole Miss SEC 81 4 0 > 99% 87% 15%
12 Notre Dame Independent 81 4 0 92% 44% 13%
13 USC PAC 12 78 3 1 > 99% 93% 12%
14 BYU Independent 78 4 0 23% 1% 3%
15 Georgia Tech ACC 77 4 0 92% 42% 11%
16 California PAC 12 74 3 1 > 99% 91% 9%
17 TCU Big 12 73 3 0 70% 12% 5%
18 LSU SEC 72 4 1 95% 42% 5%
19 Baylor Big 12 71 4 0 47% 3% 3%
20 Arizona St. PAC 12 71 3 1 95% 50% 5%
21 Stanford PAC 12 69 3 1 > 99% 88% 5%
22 Maryland Big 10 69 4 1 57% 8% 3%
23 Minnesota Big 10 69 4 1 52% 5% 3%
24 N.C. State ACC 69 4 1 20% 1% 1%
25 Washington PAC 12 68 4 1 > 99% 73% 4%
26 Missouri SEC 67 4 1 62% 12% 2%
27 Louisville ACC 67 4 1 72% 9% 2%
28 Rutgers Big 10 66 4 1 53% 4% 2%
29 Oregon St. PAC 12 66 3 1 93% 37% 4%
30 Arkansas SEC 66 3 2 44% 3% 1%
31 Penn St. Big 10 66 4 1 X X X
32 Marshall Conference USA 66 4 0 4% < 1% < 1%
33 Florida SEC 66 2 1 71% 10% 2%
34 Michigan St. Big 10 65 3 1 69% 13% 2%
35 Utah PAC 12 65 3 1 > 99% 64% 3%
36 Kansas St. Big 12 65 3 1 31% 1% 1%
37 Oklahoma St. Big 12 65 3 1 26% 1% 1%
38 Nevada Mountain West 63 3 1 16% < 1% 1%
39 Georgia SEC 63 3 1 77% 13% 2%
40 South Carolina SEC 63 3 2 19% 1% < 1%
41 Ohio St. Big 10 62 3 1 59% 8% 1%
42 Texas Big 12 61 2 2 16% < 1% < 1%
43 West Virginia Big 12 61 2 2 3% < 1% < 1%
44 Wisconsin Big 10 61 3 1 60% 7% 1%
45 Virginia ACC 60 3 2 34% 2% 1%
46 Colorado St. Mountain West 60 3 1 1% < 1% < 1%
47 Iowa Big 10 60 4 1 29% 1% 1%
48 Kentucky SEC 60 3 1 81% 21% 1%
49 Miami ACC 59 3 2 24% 1% < 1%
50 Illinois Big 10 58 3 2 7% < 1% < 1%
51 Wyoming Mountain West 58 3 2 < 1% X < 1%
52 Duke ACC 57 4 1 4% < 1% < 1%
53 East Carolina American Athletic 57 3 1 < 1% X < 1%
54 Boise State Mountain West 57 3 2 < 1% X < 1%
55 Tennessee SEC 57 2 2 37% 2% < 1%
56 Virginia Tech ACC 55 3 2 1% < 1% < 1%
57 Air Force Mountain West 55 3 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
58 Washington St. PAC 12 54 2 3 41% 3% < 1%
59 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 54 3 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
60 Northern Illinois MAC 53 3 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
61 Northwestern Big 10 52 2 2 31% 1% < 1%
62 Memphis American Athletic 52 2 2 < 1% X < 1%
63 Clemson ACC 51 2 2 3% < 1% < 1%
64 Texas Tech Big 12 51 2 2 1% < 1% < 1%
65 Boston College ACC 50 3 2 2% < 1% < 1%
66 Pittsburgh ACC 50 3 2 1% < 1% < 1%
67 Indiana Big 10 50 2 2 5% < 1% < 1%
68 Syracuse ACC 49 2 2 9% < 1% < 1%
69 W. Kentucky Conference USA 48 2 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
70 Old Dominion Conference USA 48 3 2 < 1% X < 1%
71 Temple American Athletic 48 3 1 < 1% < 1% < 1%
72 LA Monroe Sunbelt 48 3 1 < 1% X < 1%
73 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 48 2 3 X X X
74 Colorado PAC 12 47 2 3 23% < 1% < 1%
75 Cincinnati American Athletic 47 2 1 < 1% X < 1%
76 North Carolina ACC 47 2 2 24% < 1% < 1%
77 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 46 3 2 X X X
78 Kansas Big 12 46 2 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
79 Fresno State Mountain West 43 2 3 < 1% X < 1%
80 UTEP Conference USA 42 2 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
81 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 41 2 3 X X X
82 Bowling Green MAC 41 3 2 < 1% X < 1%
83 Navy Independent 41 2 3 X X X
84 Akron MAC 41 2 2 < 1% X < 1%
85 Michigan Big 10 40 2 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
86 Utah St. Mountain West 40 2 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
87 Rice Conference USA 40 1 3 < 1% X < 1%
88 Ohio MAC 39 3 2 X X X
89 Southern Miss Conference USA 39 2 3 X X X
90 Toledo MAC 39 3 2 < 1% X < 1%
91 Purdue Big 10 38 2 3 < 1% < 1% < 1%
92 San Diego State Mountain West 38 2 2 < 1% X < 1%
93 UTSA Conference USA 37 1 3 X X X
94 Wake Forest ACC 37 2 3 < 1% X < 1%
95 Houston American Athletic 37 2 2 X X X
96 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 36 2 2 X X X
97 San Jose State Mountain West 36 1 3 X X X
98 South Alabama Sunbelt 35 2 2 X X X
99 UAB Conference USA 35 2 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
100 North Texas Conference USA 35 2 2 < 1% X < 1%
101 Iowa St. Big 12 35 1 3 < 1% X < 1%
102 South Florida American Athletic 34 2 3 X X X
103 UCF American Athletic 33 1 2 < 1% X < 1%
104 Texas St. Sunbelt 32 2 2 X X X
105 Western Michigan MAC 30 2 2 < 1% X < 1%
106 Buffalo MAC 30 3 2 X X X
107 Vanderbilt SEC 29 1 4 X X X
108 Tulsa American Athletic 27 1 3 X X X
109 Florida Intl. Conference USA 27 2 3 X X X
110 Central Michigan MAC 27 2 3 X X X
111 Hawaii Mountain West 27 1 3 < 1% X < 1%
112 New Mexico Mountain West 26 1 3 < 1% X < 1%
113 Eastern Michigan MAC 26 1 3 X X X
114 UNLV Mountain West 25 1 4 X X X
115 New Mexico St. Sunbelt 24 2 3 X X X
116 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 24 1 3 X X X
117 Tulane American Athletic 24 1 4 X X X
118 SMU American Athletic 22 0 4 X X X
119 Army Independent 20 1 3 X X X
120 Connecticut American Athletic 19 1 4 X X X
121 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 17 1 3 X X X
122 Ball State MAC 13 1 3 X X X
123 Georgia St. Sunbelt 10 0 3 X X X
124 Kent State MAC 9 0 4 X X X
125 Idaho Sunbelt 2 0 4 X X X
126 Massachusetts MAC 1 0 5 X X X
127 Troy Sunbelt 1 0 5 X X X
128 Miami OH MAC 0 0 5 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot