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NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 111 12 0 100% 100% 100%
2 Indiana Big 10Big 10 105 12 0 100% 100% 100%
3 Texas A&M SECSEC 92 11 1 - - 17%
4 Georgia SECSEC 106 11 1 100% 100% 100%
5 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 102 11 1 100% 100% 100%
6 Oregon Big 10Big 10 102 11 1 - - 100%
7 Ole Miss SECSEC 98 11 1 - - 100%
8 Oklahoma SECSEC 98 10 2 - - 100%
9 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 95 10 2 - - 97%
10 Alabama SECSEC 97 10 2 100% 61% 79%
 
11 BYU Big 12Big 12 93 11 1 100% X 58%
12 Miami ACCACC 93 10 2 - - 49%
13 Utah Big 12Big 12 90 10 2 - - X
14 Vanderbilt SECSEC 91 10 2 - - X
15 Michigan Big 10Big 10 81 9 3 - - X
16 Texas SECSEC 91 9 3 - - X
17 USC Big 10Big 10 85 9 3 - - X
18 Virginia ACCACC 83 10 2 100% X 64%
19 Tennessee SECSEC 77 8 4 - - X
20 Arizona St. Big 12Big 12 75 8 4 - - X
21 SMU ACCACC 72 8 4 - - X
22 Pittsburgh ACCACC 72 8 4 - - X
23 Georgia Tech ACCACC 72 9 3 - - X
24 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 10 2 100% X 42%
25 Arizona Big 12Big 12 78 9 3 - - X
26 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 9 2 - - X
27 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 76 11 1 100% X 58%
28 Illinois Big 10Big 10 76 8 4 - - X
29 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 75 9 3 - - X
30 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 74 11 1 35% X 27%
31 TCU Big 12Big 12 72 8 4 - - X
32 Houston Big 12Big 12 72 9 3 - - X
33 Iowa Big 10Big 10 72 8 4 - - X
34 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 71 8 4 - - X
35 LSU SECSEC 69 7 5 - - X
36 Washington Big 10Big 10 69 8 4 - - X
37 Missouri SECSEC 67 8 4 - - X
38 N.C. State ACCACC 67 7 5 - - X
39 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 66 10 2 X X X
40 Louisville ACCACC 66 8 4 - - X
41 Duke ACCACC 65 7 5 25% X 9%
42 Wake Forest ACCACC 64 8 4 - - X
43 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 64 9 3 - - X
44 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 8 4 - - X
45 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 62 9 3 - - X
46 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 62 8 4 X X X
47 Kennesaw St. Conference USAConf. USA 61 9 3 X X X
48 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 61 7 5 - - X
49 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 59 8 4 - - X
50 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 59 7 5 - - X
51 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 58 9 3 - - X
52 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 58 7 5 - - X
53 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 57 6 6 - - X
54 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 56 6 6 - - X
55 Clemson ACCACC 55 7 5 - - X
56 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 54 9 3 - - X
57 California ACCACC 53 7 5 - - X
58 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 53 4 8 - - X
59 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 52 6 6 - - X
60 Florida SECSEC 50 4 8 - - X
61 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 50 8 4 - - X
62 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 50 8 4 X X X
63 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 50 5 7 - - X
64 Washington St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 50 6 6 - - X
65 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 49 6 6 - - X
66 Auburn SECSEC 49 5 7 - - X
67 Kentucky SECSEC 49 5 7 - - X
68 Western Michigan MACMAC 49 8 4 X X X
69 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 49 8 4 - - X
70 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 48 5 7 - - X
71 Black Knights American AthleticAm. Athletic 48 6 5 - - X
72 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 47 8 4 - - X
73 South Carolina SECSEC 47 4 8 - - X
74 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 47 8 4 X X X
75 Florida St. ACCACC 46 5 7 - - X
76 Baylor Big 12Big 12 46 5 7 - - X
77 Kansas Big 12Big 12 45 5 7 - - X
78 Ohio MACMAC 45 8 4 - - X
79 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 45 4 8 - - X
80 Toledo MACMAC 45 8 4 - - X
81 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 44 6 6 - - X
82 UCLA Big 10Big 10 43 3 9 - - X
83 Missouri St. Conference USAConf. USA 43 7 5 - - X
84 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 43 6 6 - - X
85 Stanford ACCACC 42 4 8 - - X
86 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 42 7 5 - - X
87 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 42 7 5 - - X
88 UCF Big 12Big 12 42 5 7 - - X
89 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 41 5 7 - - X
90 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 41 6 6 - - X
91 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 40 7 5 - - X
92 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 40 5 7 - - X
93 Miami OH MACMAC 40 7 5 X X X
94 Colorado Big 12Big 12 38 3 9 - - X
95 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 38 4 8 - - X
96 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 38 6 6 - - X
97 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 37 6 6 - - X
98 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 37 6 6 - - X
99 Central Michigan MACMAC 36 7 5 - - X
100 Virginia Tech ACCACC 35 3 9 - - X
101 Maryland Big 10Big 10 34 4 8 - - X
102 Purdue Big 10Big 10 33 2 10 - - X
103 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 33 5 7 - - X
104 North Carolina ACCACC 32 4 8 - - X
105 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 32 4 8 - - X
106 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 32 4 8 - - X
107 Syracuse ACCACC 31 3 9 - - X
108 Delaware Conference USAConf. USA 30 6 6 - - X
109 Arkansas SECSEC 29 2 10 - - X
110 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 28 5 7 - - X
111 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 26 4 8 - - X
112 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 24 4 8 - - X
113 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 23 4 8 - - X
114 Kent State MACMAC 23 5 7 - - X
115 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 20 4 8 - - X
116 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 20 4 8 - - X
117 Boston College ACCACC 19 2 10 - - X
118 Buffalo MACMAC 18 5 7 - - X
119 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 16 3 9 - - X
120 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 16 3 9 - - X
121 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 16 3 9 - - X
122 Ball State MACMAC 15 4 8 - - X
123 Akron MACMAC 15 5 7 - - X
124 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 15 4 8 - - X
125 Oregon St. NCAA IndependentsInd. 14 2 10 - - X
126 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 14 1 11 - - X
127 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 13 2 10 - - X
128 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 12 4 8 - - X
129 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 11 1 11 - - X
130 Bowling Green MACMAC 10 4 8 - - X
131 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 9 1 11 - - X
132 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 8 3 9 - - X
133 Northern Illinois MACMAC 4 3 9 - - X
134 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 4 2 10 - - X
135 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 0 2 10 - - X
136 UMass MACMAC -17 0 12 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot