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Will your team play in the BCS National Championship Game? The BCS National Championship Game Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team plays in the championship game depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
New - So how well did we do in predicting who would play in the National Championship Game? Our computer model has did not include Florida St. in the National Championship Game. It was replaced with Stanford. Our computer model rewarded Stanford for its strong strength of schedule while demoting Florida St. for its weak Strength of Schedule. Our computer model performs quite well in predicting NCAA Basketall Tournament Participation (cutline located at the ~50th ranked team) but less so for the very top of NCAA Football. We are planning changes next year to make the site more accurate for the new NCAA Football Playout system.
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BCS National Championship Game Participation Probabilities