Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.
| Rank | Team | ConferenceConf | MWP | Record | College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Win Out | Lose 1 More | Current | ||||
| 1 | Miami | ACCACC | 95 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 77% |
| 2 | BYU | Big 12Big 12 | 94 | 6 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 70% |
| 3 | Ohio St. | Big 10Big 10 | 93 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| 4 | Notre Dame | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 92 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 99% | 74% |
| 5 | Georgia | SECSEC | 91 | 6 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 62% |
| 6 | Indiana | Big 10Big 10 | 90 | 6 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 60% |
| 7 | Ole Miss | SECSEC | 89 | 5 | 1 | 100% | >99% | 55% |
| 8 | Texas Tech | Big 12Big 12 | 88 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 99% | 53% |
| 9 | UCLA | Big 10Big 10 | 88 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 92% | 57% |
| 10 | Utah | Big 12Big 12 | 87 | 6 | 0 | 100% | >99% | 47% |
| 11 | Tennessee | SECSEC | 86 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 99% | 43% |
| 12 | Kentucky | SECSEC | 85 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 91% | 43% |
| 13 | Alabama | SECSEC | 84 | 5 | 2 | >99% | 67% | 37% |
| 14 | Houston | Big 12Big 12 | 83 | 6 | 1 | >99% | 68% | 34% |
| 15 | Iowa | Big 10Big 10 | 82 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 97% | 35% |
| 16 | USC | Big 10Big 10 | 81 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 94% | 28% |
| 17 | Wake Forest | ACCACC | 80 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 51% | 35% |
| 18 | LSU | SECSEC | 80 | 5 | 2 | >99% | 90% | 26% |
| 19 | Texas | SECSEC | 79 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 91% | 25% |
| 20 | Florida | SECSEC | 78 | 5 | 2 | 99% | 58% | 19% |
| 21 | Boise State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 77 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 42% |
| 22 | Missouri | SECSEC | 76 | 5 | 2 | >99% | 70% | 16% |
| 23 | SMU | ACCACC | 75 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 85% | 20% |
| 24 | NorthwesternN. Western | Big 10Big 10 | 74 | 5 | 1 | >99% | 70% | 14% |
| 25 | Arizona | Big 12Big 12 | 73 | 5 | 1 | >99% | 58% | 13% |
| 26 | Auburn | SECSEC | 73 | 4 | 2 | >99% | 59% | 11% |
| 27 | Mississippi St.Miss. St. | SECSEC | 73 | 4 | 2 | 96% | 33% | 9% |
| 28 | James Madison | SunbeltSunbelt | 73 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 100% | 19% |
| 29 | Oregon | Big 10Big 10 | 73 | 4 | 2 | 99% | 43% | 13% |
| 30 | UTSA | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 71 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 23% |
| 31 | North Carolina | ACCACC | 70 | 4 | 2 | 79% | 12% | 8% |
| 32 | Oklahoma St. | Big 12Big 12 | 69 | 4 | 2 | 86% | 21% | 7% |
| 33 | Clemson | ACCACC | 68 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 7% | 5% |
| 34 | Wisconsin | Big 10Big 10 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 77% | 16% | 5% |
| 35 | Michigan | Big 10Big 10 | 66 | 4 | 2 | 97% | 27% | 4% |
| 36 | Oklahoma | SECSEC | 64 | 3 | 3 | 97% | 38% | 4% |
| 37 | Cincinnati | Big 12Big 12 | 64 | 4 | 2 | 99% | 41% | 3% |
| 38 | Nebraska | Big 10Big 10 | 64 | 5 | 2 | 21% | 1% | 1% |
| 39 | Pittsburgh | ACCACC | 64 | 5 | 2 | 61% | 3% | 2% |
| 40 | Baylor | Big 12Big 12 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 99% | 44% | 3% |
| 41 | North Dakota St. | Mountain WestMntn West | 62 | 6 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 42 | Texas A&M | SECSEC | 60 | 4 | 3 | 43% | 1% | 1% |
| 43 | Minnesota | Big 10Big 10 | 60 | 4 | 2 | 99% | 47% | 3% |
| 44 | Oregon St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 60 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 3% |
| 45 | Louisville | ACCACC | 60 | 4 | 3 | 32% | 9% | 1% |
| 46 | South Carolina | SECSEC | 60 | 3 | 3 | 69% | 5% | 1% |
| 47 | Virginia Tech | ACCACC | 60 | 5 | 2 | 68% | 5% | 1% |
| 48 | Duke | ACCACC | 59 | 4 | 2 | 87% | 12% | 1% |
| 49 | Air Force | Mountain WestMntn West | 58 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 50 | Kansas St. | Big 12Big 12 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 16% | 1% | <1% |
| 51 | Memphis | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 57 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 52 | Western Michigan | MACMAC | 55 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 53 | UCF | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 21% | <1% | <1% |
| 54 | West Virginia | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 4 | 3 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 55 | Iowa St. | Big 12Big 12 | 55 | 3 | 3 | 37% | 3% | <1% |
| 56 | New Mexico | Mountain WestMntn West | 55 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 57 | Louisiana Tech | SunbeltSunbelt | 55 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 58 | North Texas | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 55 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 2% |
| 59 | Liberty | Conference USAConf. USA | 54 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 60 | UL Lafayette | SunbeltSunbelt | 54 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 61 | TCU | Big 12Big 12 | 54 | 3 | 3 | 52% | 3% | <1% |
| 62 | Ohio | MACMAC | 54 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 63 | Arkansas | SECSEC | 53 | 3 | 4 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 64 | Purdue | Big 10Big 10 | 53 | 3 | 4 | 16% | <1% | <1% |
| 65 | Washington | Big 10Big 10 | 53 | 4 | 3 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 66 | South Alabama | SunbeltSunbelt | 52 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 67 | South Florida | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 52 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 68 | Black Knights | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 51 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 69 | Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 51 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 70 | Florida Atlantic | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 51 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | 1% |
| 71 | Boston College | ACCACC | 51 | 3 | 3 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 72 | Illinois | Big 10Big 10 | 50 | 3 | 3 | 38% | 1% | <1% |
| 73 | Vanderbilt | SECSEC | 49 | 3 | 4 | 3% | X | <1% |
| 74 | UNLV | Mountain WestMntn West | 48 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 75 | Arizona St. | Big 12Big 12 | 48 | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1% | <1% |
| 76 | California | ACCACC | 48 | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1% | 1% |
| 77 | Florida St. | ACCACC | 48 | 3 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 78 | N.C. State | ACCACC | 48 | 3 | 3 | 24% | <1% | <1% |
| 79 | Toledo | MACMAC | 47 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 80 | Virginia | ACCACC | 47 | 4 | 3 | 51% | 1% | <1% |
| 81 | Fresno State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 82 | Stanford | ACCACC | 47 | 3 | 4 | 4% | X | <1% |
| 83 | Texas St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 47 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 84 | Penn St. | Big 10Big 10 | 47 | 3 | 4 | X | X | X |
| 85 | Tulane | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 47 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 86 | San Diego State | PAC 12PAC 12 | 46 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 87 | Colorado | Big 12Big 12 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 88 | Georgia St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 45 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 89 | Tulsa | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 43 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 90 | Appalachian St.App. St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 41 | 4 | 2 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 91 | UAB | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 41 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 92 | Ga. Southern | SunbeltSunbelt | 40 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 93 | Michigan St. | Big 10Big 10 | 40 | 2 | 5 | X | X | X |
| 94 | San José State | Mountain WestMntn West | 40 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 95 | Buffalo | MACMAC | 38 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 96 | Georgia Tech | ACCACC | 38 | 2 | 4 | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 97 | Kansas | Big 12Big 12 | 38 | 2 | 4 | 2% | X | <1% |
| 98 | Miami OH | MACMAC | 38 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 99 | Wyoming | Mountain WestMntn West | 37 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 100 | East Carolina | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 36 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 101 | Central Michigan | MACMAC | 36 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 102 | Colorado St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 35 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 103 | Maryland | Big 10Big 10 | 35 | 2 | 5 | X | X | X |
| 104 | Rutgers | Big 10Big 10 | 35 | 2 | 4 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 105 | Florida Intl. | Conference USAConf. USA | 35 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 106 | Marshall | SunbeltSunbelt | 34 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 107 | Troy | SunbeltSunbelt | 33 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 108 | Syracuse | ACCACC | 33 | 2 | 4 | <1% | X | <1% |
| 109 | Navy | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 33 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 110 | Eastern Michigan | MACMAC | 32 | 4 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 111 | Utah St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 30 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 112 | UMass | MACMAC | 30 | 4 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 113 | W. Kentucky | Conference USAConf. USA | 29 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 114 | Arkansas St. | SunbeltSunbelt | 29 | 3 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 115 | Middle Tenn. St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 28 | 3 | 3 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 116 | UConn | NCAA IndependentsInd. | 27 | 3 | 3 | X | X | X |
| 117 | Kent State | MACMAC | 27 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 118 | Ball State | MACMAC | 26 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 119 | Old Dominion | SunbeltSunbelt | 23 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 120 | Nevada | Mountain WestMntn West | 23 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 121 | Missouri St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 20 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 122 | Coastal Carolina | SunbeltSunbelt | 19 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 123 | Delaware | Conference USAConf. USA | 19 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 124 | Rice | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 17 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 125 | New Mexico St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 17 | 2 | 4 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 126 | Washington St. | PAC 12PAC 12 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 127 | Bowling Green | MACMAC | 16 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 128 | Temple | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 16 | 2 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 129 | Charlotte | American AthleticAm. Athletic | 14 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 130 | UTEP | Mountain WestMntn West | 12 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 131 | Sam Houston | Conference USAConf. USA | 12 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 132 | Akron | MACMAC | 12 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 133 | Southern Miss | SunbeltSunbelt | 10 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 134 | Kennesaw St. | Conference USAConf. USA | 9 | 1 | 5 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 135 | Hawaii | Mountain WestMntn West | 8 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 136 | Northern Illinois | Mountain WestMntn West | 7 | 0 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 137 | Sacramento St. | MACMAC | 4 | 1 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |
| 138 | LA Monroe | SunbeltSunbelt | 3 | 0 | 6 | 100% | 100% | <1% |