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NCAA Football - Week 13 of 16

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear.


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College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Rank Team Conference MWP Record  College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Boston College ACC 60 6 4 X X X
2 Clemson ACC 80 7 3 < 1% X < 1%
3 Florida St. ACC 103 10 0 > 99% 84% 82%
4 Louisville ACC 79 7 3 < 1% X < 1%
 
5 N.C. State ACC 56 6 5 X X X
6 Wake Forest ACC 29 3 8 X X X
7 Syracuse ACC 37 3 7 X X X
8 Duke ACC 64 8 3 X X X
9 Georgia Tech ACC 81 9 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
10 Miami ACC 69 6 4 X X X
11 North Carolina ACC 61 6 5 X X X
12 Virginia ACC 48 4 6 X X X
13 Virginia Tech ACC 50 5 6 X X X
14 Pittsburgh ACC 38 4 6 X X X
15 East Carolina American Athletic 51 6 3 X X X
16 Tulane American Athletic 25 3 7 X X X
17 Tulsa American Athletic 11 2 9 X X X
18 Cincinnati American Athletic 57 6 3 X X X
19 Connecticut American Athletic 14 2 7 X X X
20 South Florida American Athletic 28 4 6 X X X
21 Temple American Athletic 37 5 5 X X X
22 Houston American Athletic 40 6 4 X X X
23 Memphis American Athletic 61 7 3 X X X
24 SMU American Athletic 2 0 10 X X X
25 UCF American Athletic 51 7 3 X X X
26 Indiana Big 10 34 3 8 X X X
27 Ohio St. Big 10 94 10 1 59% < 1% 30%
28 Penn St. Big 10 53 6 5 X X X
29 Michigan Big 10 55 5 5 X X X
30 Michigan St. Big 10 88 9 2 < 1% < 1% < 1%
31 Maryland Big 10 64 6 4 X X X
32 Rutgers Big 10 59 6 5 X X X
33 Wisconsin Big 10 82 8 2 6% < 1% 1%
34 Purdue Big 10 35 3 8 X X X
35 Illinois Big 10 50 5 6 X X X
36 Iowa Big 10 62 7 3 X X X
37 Minnesota Big 10 84 8 3 4% X 1%
38 Nebraska Big 10 73 8 3 X X X
39 Northwestern Big 10 53 5 6 X X X
40 Iowa St. Big 12 31 2 7 X X X
41 Kansas Big 12 34 3 8 X X X
42 Kansas St. Big 12 90 8 2 6% < 1% 3%
43 TCU Big 12 95 9 1 52% < 1% 34%
44 Baylor Big 12 91 8 1 24% < 1% 9%
45 Oklahoma Big 12 79 8 3 < 1% X < 1%
46 Oklahoma St. Big 12 53 5 5 X X X
47 Texas Big 12 62 6 5 X X X
48 West Virginia Big 12 66 6 5 X X X
49 Texas Tech Big 12 38 3 7 X X X
50 Southern Miss Conference USA 27 3 8 X X X
51 Louisiana Tech Conference USA 55 7 4 X X X
52 North Texas Conference USA 15 3 7 X X X
53 Rice Conference USA 54 7 4 X X X
54 UTSA Conference USA 21 3 8 X X X
55 UTEP Conference USA 41 6 5 X X X
56 Old Dominion Conference USA 35 5 6 X X X
57 W. Kentucky Conference USA 42 6 5 X X X
58 Marshall Conference USA 79 11 0 < 1% X < 1%
59 UAB Conference USA 37 5 6 X X X
60 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USA 44 5 5 X X X
61 Florida Intl. Conference USA 23 4 7 X X X
62 Florida Atlantic Conference USA 26 3 7 X X X
63 Ball State MAC 16 4 7 X X X
64 Central Michigan MAC 37 7 5 - - X
65 Eastern Michigan MAC 6 2 9 X X X
66 Northern Illinois MAC 58 9 2 X X X
67 Toledo MAC 48 7 4 X X X
68 Western Michigan MAC 49 8 3 X X X
69 Akron MAC 22 5 6 X X X
70 Bowling Green MAC 44 7 4 X X X
71 Buffalo MAC 15 4 6 X X X
72 Kent State MAC -1 1 9 X X X
73 Miami OH MAC 4 2 9 X X X
74 Ohio MAC 27 5 6 X X X
75 Massachusetts MAC 7 3 8 X X X
76 Air Force Mountain West 60 8 3 X X X
77 Boise State Mountain West 76 8 2 < 1% X < 1%
78 Colorado St. Mountain West 77 10 1 < 1% X < 1%
79 New Mexico Mountain West 27 3 8 X X X
80 Utah St. Mountain West 66 9 3 X X X
81 Wyoming Mountain West 42 4 6 X X X
82 San Diego State Mountain West 44 6 5 X X X
83 Fresno State Mountain West 39 4 6 X X X
84 UNLV Mountain West 17 2 9 X X X
85 Hawaii Mountain West 26 3 8 X X X
86 Nevada Mountain West 61 6 4 X X X
87 San Jose State Mountain West 28 3 8 X X X
88 Notre Dame Independent 77 7 3 < 1% X < 1%
89 Army Independent 15 4 7 X X X
90 Navy Independent 45 5 5 X X X
91 BYU Independent 59 7 4 X X X
92 California PAC 12 63 5 5 X X X
93 Oregon PAC 12 104 9 1 100% 95% 86%
94 Oregon St. PAC 12 55 5 5 X X X
95 Stanford PAC 12 63 5 5 X X X
96 Washington PAC 12 63 6 5 X X X
97 Washington St. PAC 12 46 3 8 X X X
98 Arizona PAC 12 82 8 2 4% < 1% < 1%
99 Arizona St. PAC 12 86 9 2 18% < 1% 4%
100 Colorado PAC 12 38 2 8 X X X
101 UCLA PAC 12 89 8 2 29% < 1% 8%
102 USC PAC 12 81 7 3 13% < 1% 1%
103 Utah PAC 12 82 7 3 1% X < 1%
104 Florida SEC 67 6 4 X X X
105 South Carolina SEC 61 6 5 X X X
106 Tennessee SEC 63 5 5 X X X
107 Vanderbilt SEC 33 3 7 X X X
108 Kentucky SEC 50 5 6 X X X
109 Georgia SEC 89 9 2 40% < 1% 8%
110 Missouri SEC 81 8 2 4% X 1%
111 Auburn SEC 83 7 3 < 1% X < 1%
112 Alabama SEC 103 9 1 100% 71% 73%
113 Ole Miss SEC 88 8 2 35% < 1% 8%
114 Mississippi St. SEC 99 9 1 > 99% 22% 52%
115 LSU SEC 72 7 4 X X X
116 Arkansas SEC 65 5 5 X X X
117 Texas A&M SEC 73 7 4 X X X
118 Arkansas St. Sunbelt 36 6 5 X X X
119 UL Lafayette Sunbelt 46 7 4 X X X
120 LA Monroe Sunbelt 16 3 7 X X X
121 Ga. Southern Sunbelt 49 8 3 X X X
122 Idaho Sunbelt -9 1 9 X X X
123 New Mexico St. Sunbelt -1 2 8 X X X
124 Troy Sunbelt 6 3 8 X X X
125 Appalachian St. Sunbelt 30 6 5 X X X
126 South Alabama Sunbelt 36 6 5 X X X
127 Georgia St. Sunbelt -8 0 9 X X X
128 Texas St. Sunbelt 30 6 5 X X X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot