PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 31 8:30 pm

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Football Playoff Participation Probabilities

Will your team advance to the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities table presents the probability that a team advances to the playoffs depended upon three ways of playing its remaining games. These play methods include winning all remaining games, winning all but one remaining games, and current winning probabilites. All other future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. New Click on a team's probability for more detail information. New

Note that this list will not be updated after the individual conference tournaments

College Football Playoff Participation Probabilities
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Michigan Big 10Big 10 116 13 0 - - 100%
2 Washington PAC 12PAC 12 115 13 0 - - 100%
3 Texas Big 12Big 12 112 12 1 - - 100%
4 Alabama SECSEC 111 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Florida St. ACCACC 105 13 0 - - X
6 Georgia SECSEC 104 12 1 - - X
7 Ohio St. Big 10Big 10 102 11 1 - - X
8 Oregon PAC 12PAC 12 101 11 2 - - X
9 Missouri SECSEC 99 10 2 - - X
10 Penn St. Big 10Big 10 97 10 2 - - X
11 Ole Miss SECSEC 96 10 2 - - X
12 Oklahoma Big 12Big 12 94 10 2 - - X
13 LSU SECSEC 92 9 3 - - X
14 Arizona PAC 12PAC 12 91 9 3 - - X
15 Louisville ACCACC 88 10 3 - - X
16 Notre Dame NCAA IndependentsInd. 87 9 3 - - X
17 Iowa Big 10Big 10 86 10 3 - - X
18 N.C. State ACCACC 83 9 3 - - X
19 Oregon St. PAC 12PAC 12 83 8 4 - - X
20 Oklahoma St. Big 12Big 12 81 9 4 - - X
21 Tennessee SECSEC 79 8 4 - - X
22 Clemson ACCACC 77 8 4 - - X
23 Liberty Conference USAConf. USA 75 13 0 - - X
24 Troy SunbeltSunbelt 74 11 2 - - X
25 SMU American AthleticAm. Athletic 74 11 2 - - X
26 Kansas St. Big 12Big 12 73 8 4 - - X
27 Utah PAC 12PAC 12 73 8 4 - - X
28 Tulane American AthleticAm. Athletic 72 11 2 - - X
29 Toledo MACMAC 72 11 2 - - X
30 Miami OH MACMAC 69 11 2 - - X
31 Kansas Big 12Big 12 69 8 4 - - X
32 James Madison SunbeltSunbelt 68 11 1 - - X
33 USC PAC 12PAC 12 67 7 5 - - X
34 Iowa St. Big 12Big 12 66 7 5 - - X
35 North Carolina ACCACC 65 8 4 - - X
36 Memphis American AthleticAm. Athletic 64 9 3 - - X
37 West Virginia Big 12Big 12 64 8 4 - - X
38 Miami ACCACC 63 7 5 - - X
39 Duke ACCACC 62 7 5 - - X
40 Maryland Big 10Big 10 60 7 5 - - X
41 Wyoming Mountain WestMntn West 60 8 4 - - X
42 Boise State Mountain WestMntn West 60 8 5 - - X
43 Texas A&M SECSEC 60 7 5 - - X
44 UNLV Mountain WestMntn West 59 9 4 - - X
45 Kentucky SECSEC 59 7 5 - - X
46 NorthwesternN. Western Big 10Big 10 59 7 5 - - X
47 Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 59 7 5 - - X
48 Rutgers Big 10Big 10 58 6 6 - - X
49 California PAC 12PAC 12 57 6 6 - - X
50 UCLA PAC 12PAC 12 57 7 5 - - X
51 New Mexico St. Conference USAConf. USA 56 10 4 - - X
52 Appalachian St.App. St. SunbeltSunbelt 56 8 5 - - X
53 Georgia Tech ACCACC 56 6 6 - - X
54 Texas Tech Big 12Big 12 55 6 6 - - X
55 Auburn SECSEC 55 6 6 - - X
56 San José State Mountain WestMntn West 55 7 5 - - X
57 Coastal Carolina SunbeltSunbelt 54 7 5 - - X
58 Virginia Tech ACCACC 53 6 6 - - X
59 Air Force Mountain WestMntn West 53 8 4 - - X
60 UTSA American AthleticAm. Athletic 52 8 4 - - X
61 Ohio MACMAC 51 9 3 - - X
62 Bowling Green MACMAC 51 7 5 - - X
63 Fresno State Mountain WestMntn West 50 8 4 - - X
64 Minnesota Big 10Big 10 50 5 7 - - X
65 Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. Conference USAConf. USA 50 8 4 - - X
66 W. Kentucky Conference USAConf. USA 49 7 5 - - X
67 Washington St. PAC 12PAC 12 48 5 7 - - X
68 Florida SECSEC 48 5 7 - - X
69 Illinois Big 10Big 10 47 5 7 - - X
70 Old Dominion SunbeltSunbelt 47 6 6 - - X
71 UCF Big 12Big 12 47 6 6 - - X
72 Michigan St. Big 10Big 10 47 4 8 - - X
73 Georgia St. SunbeltSunbelt 47 6 6 - - X
74 Marshall SunbeltSunbelt 47 6 6 - - X
75 TCU Big 12Big 12 47 5 7 - - X
76 Syracuse ACCACC 46 6 6 - - X
77 South Carolina SECSEC 46 5 7 - - X
78 South Alabama SunbeltSunbelt 45 6 6 - - X
79 BYU Big 12Big 12 45 5 7 - - X
80 Boston College ACCACC 45 6 6 - - X
81 Mississippi St.Miss. St. SECSEC 45 5 7 - - X
82 Nebraska Big 10Big 10 44 5 7 - - X
83 Texas St. SunbeltSunbelt 44 7 5 - - X
84 Arkansas St. SunbeltSunbelt 43 6 6 - - X
85 Purdue Big 10Big 10 43 4 8 - - X
86 Ga. Southern SunbeltSunbelt 42 6 6 - - X
87 Utah St. Mountain WestMntn West 41 6 6 - - X
88 Colorado PAC 12PAC 12 39 4 8 - - X
89 Rice American AthleticAm. Athletic 38 6 6 - - X
90 Wake Forest ACCACC 37 4 8 - - X
91 Army NCAA IndependentsInd. 36 5 6 - - X
92 Arizona St. PAC 12PAC 12 36 3 9 - - X
93 UL Lafayette SunbeltSunbelt 36 6 6 - - X
94 South Florida American AthleticAm. Athletic 36 6 6 - - X
95 Stanford PAC 12PAC 12 35 3 9 - - X
96 Virginia ACCACC 34 3 9 - - X
97 Houston Big 12Big 12 34 4 8 - - X
98 Arkansas SECSEC 33 4 8 - - X
99 Indiana Big 10Big 10 32 3 9 - - X
100 Navy American AthleticAm. Athletic 30 5 6 - - X
101 Pittsburgh ACCACC 30 3 9 - - X
102 Colorado St. Mountain WestMntn West 29 5 7 - - X
103 Hawaii Mountain WestMntn West 28 5 8 - - X
104 North Texas American AthleticAm. Athletic 28 5 7 - - X
105 Western Michigan MACMAC 28 4 8 - - X
106 Northern Illinois MACMAC 28 6 6 - - X
107 Middle Tenn. St. Conference USAConf. USA 27 4 8 - - X
108 Central Michigan MACMAC 26 5 7 - - X
109 Baylor Big 12Big 12 26 3 9 - - X
110 Eastern Michigan MACMAC 25 6 6 - - X
111 Cincinnati Big 12Big 12 25 3 9 - - X
112 New Mexico Mountain WestMntn West 25 4 8 - - X
113 Tulsa American AthleticAm. Athletic 25 4 8 - - X
114 San Diego State Mountain WestMntn West 25 4 8 - - X
115 UAB American AthleticAm. Athletic 24 4 8 - - X
116 Ball State MACMAC 24 4 8 - - X
117 Southern Miss SunbeltSunbelt 24 3 9 - - X
118 UMass NCAA IndependentsInd. 23 3 9 - - X
119 Vanderbilt SECSEC 22 2 10 - - X
120 Florida Atlantic American AthleticAm. Athletic 20 4 8 - - X
121 UConn NCAA IndependentsInd. 20 3 9 - - X
122 UTEP Conference USAConf. USA 17 3 9 - - X
123 Florida Intl. Conference USAConf. USA 16 4 8 - - X
124 Buffalo MACMAC 14 3 9 - - X
125 Louisiana Tech Conference USAConf. USA 13 3 9 - - X
126 LA Monroe SunbeltSunbelt 13 2 10 - - X
127 Charlotte American AthleticAm. Athletic 13 3 9 - - X
128 Sam Houston Conference USAConf. USA 12 3 9 - - X
129 Temple American AthleticAm. Athletic 12 3 9 - - X
130 East Carolina American AthleticAm. Athletic 11 2 10 - - X
131 Nevada Mountain WestMntn West 8 2 10 - - X
132 Akron MACMAC -2 2 10 - - X
133 Kent State MACMAC -7 1 11 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot