How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Miami | 7 | 0 | 11% | 20% | 38% | 69% | 84% |
| Ohio St. | 6 | 1 | 8% | 15% | 30% | 60% | 77% |
| UCLA | 7 | 0 | 8% | 15% | 28% | 50% | 66% |
| Indiana | 7 | 1 | 7% | 13% | 27% | 54% | 75% |
| Notre Dame | 6 | 1 | 6% | 13% | 26% | 54% | 77% |
| Utah | 7 | 0 | 6% | 13% | 25% | 49% | 63% |
| Kentucky | 7 | 1 | 6% | 12% | 22% | 41% | 56% |
| Georgia | 6 | 1 | 5% | 11% | 24% | 53% | 72% |
| BYU | 6 | 1 | 5% | 10% | 20% | 40% | 57% |
| Texas | 5 | 2 | 5% | 9% | 17% | 33% | 50% |
| Alabama | 6 | 2 | 4% | 8% | 16% | 32% | 50% |
| Ole Miss | 5 | 2 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 27% | 43% |
| Texas Tech | 6 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 27% | 40% |
| Wake Forest | 6 | 1 | 3% | 6% | 12% | 25% | 40% |
| LSU | 6 | 2 | 3% | 5% | 10% | 20% | 32% |
| Boise State | 6 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 20% | 48% |
| Florida | 5 | 2 | 2% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 26% |
| SMU | 6 | 1 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 26% |
| Tennessee | 6 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 27% |
| Houston | 6 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 20% |
| Arizona | 6 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 11% | 19% |
| UTSA | 7 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 24% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 6 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 15% |
| Missouri | 5 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| Oklahoma St. | 5 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 3% | 7% | 13% |
| Oklahoma | 4 | 3 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 9% |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% |
| James Madison | 7 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 9% |
| New Mexico | 6 | 1 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 8% |
| USC | 6 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% |
| Minnesota | 5 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| North Texas | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| South Carolina | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Virginia Tech | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Oregon | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Memphis | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Duke | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Iowa | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Oregon St. | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Florida Atlantic | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Louisville | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| UCF | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| Black Knights | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Louisiana Tech | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Arizona St. | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Auburn | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Liberty | 6 | 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North Dakota St. | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Toledo | 6 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Air Force | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Buffalo | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Miami OH | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nebraska | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Pittsburgh | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Florida | 5 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UL Lafayette | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| West Virginia | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wyoming | 5 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas St. | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Baylor | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boston College | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Clemson | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fresno State | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia St. | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Illinois | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas St. | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Marshall | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Michigan | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North Carolina | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San José State | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South Alabama | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Stanford | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Texas St. | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulsa | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UAB | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 4 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UMass | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UNLV | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Virginia | 4 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington | 4 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arkansas | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ball State | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| California | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Central Michigan | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado St. | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Delaware | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| East Carolina | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida St. | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ga. Southern | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa St. | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kansas | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kent State | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| N.C. State | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nevada | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| New Mexico St. | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Penn St. | 3 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Purdue | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| San Diego State | 3 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Syracuse | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TCU | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tulane | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Vanderbilt | 3 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| W. Kentucky | 3 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Bowling Green | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coastal Carolina | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Colorado | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Georgia Tech | 2 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Hawaii | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Maryland | 2 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan St. | 2 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Missouri St. | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Navy | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 2 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rutgers | 2 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Southern Miss | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Temple | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Utah St. | 2 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Akron | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Charlotte | 1 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kennesaw St. | 1 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| LA Monroe | 1 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rice | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sacramento St. | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Sam Houston | 1 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UTEP | 1 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington St. | 1 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northern Illinois | 0 | 7 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |