PlayoffStatus.com

Wed Jan 10 10:00 am

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

2023 NCAA Football Playoff Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

College Football Playoff Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Football
National Champions
Championship Game
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Playoff
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Team W L
Michigan 15 0 100% ^ ^
Washington 14 1 X 100% ^
Alabama 12 2 X X 100%
Texas 12 2 X X 100%
Florida St. 13 0 X X X
Liberty 13 0 X X X
Georgia 12 1 X X X
James Madison 11 1 X X X
Miami OH 11 2 X X X
Ohio St. 11 1 X X X
Oregon 11 2 X X X
SMU 11 2 X X X
Toledo 11 2 X X X
Troy 11 2 X X X
Tulane 11 2 X X X
Iowa 10 3 X X X
Louisville 10 3 X X X
Missouri 10 2 X X X
New Mexico St. 10 4 X X X
Oklahoma 10 2 X X X
Ole Miss 10 2 X X X
Penn St. 10 2 X X X
Arizona 9 3 X X X
LSU 9 3 X X X
Memphis 9 3 X X X
N.C. State 9 3 X X X
Notre Dame 9 3 X X X
Ohio 9 3 X X X
Oklahoma St. 9 4 X X X
UNLV 9 4 X X X
Air Force 8 4 X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 8 5 X X X
Boise State 8 5 X X X
Clemson 8 4 X X X
Fresno State 8 4 X X X
Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. 8 4 X X X
Kansas 8 4 X X X
Kansas St. 8 4 X X X
North Carolina 8 4 X X X
Oregon St. 8 4 X X X
Tennessee 8 4 X X X
UTSA 8 4 X X X
Utah 8 4 X X X
West Virginia 8 4 X X X
Wyoming 8 4 X X X
Bowling Green 7 5 X X X
Coastal Carolina 7 5 X X X
Duke 7 5 X X X
Iowa St. 7 5 X X X
Kentucky 7 5 X X X
Maryland 7 5 X X X
Miami 7 5 X X X
NorthwesternN. Western 7 5 X X X
San José State 7 5 X X X
Texas A&M 7 5 X X X
Texas St. 7 5 X X X
UCLA 7 5 X X X
USC 7 5 X X X
W. Kentucky 7 5 X X X
Wisconsin 7 5 X X X
Arkansas St. 6 6 X X X
Auburn 6 6 X X X
Boston College 6 6 X X X
California 6 6 X X X
Eastern Michigan 6 6 X X X
Ga. Southern 6 6 X X X
Georgia St. 6 6 X X X
Georgia Tech 6 6 X X X
Marshall 6 6 X X X
Northern Illinois 6 6 X X X
Old Dominion 6 6 X X X
Rice 6 6 X X X
Rutgers 6 6 X X X
South Alabama 6 6 X X X
South Florida 6 6 X X X
Syracuse 6 6 X X X
Texas Tech 6 6 X X X
UCF 6 6 X X X
UL Lafayette 6 6 X X X
Utah St. 6 6 X X X
Virginia Tech 6 6 X X X
Army 5 6 X X X
BYU 5 7 X X X
Central Michigan 5 7 X X X
Colorado St. 5 7 X X X
Florida 5 7 X X X
Hawaii 5 8 X X X
Illinois 5 7 X X X
Minnesota 5 7 X X X
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 5 7 X X X
Navy 5 6 X X X
Nebraska 5 7 X X X
North Texas 5 7 X X X
South Carolina 5 7 X X X
TCU 5 7 X X X
Washington St. 5 7 X X X
Arkansas 4 8 X X X
Ball State 4 8 X X X
Colorado 4 8 X X X
Florida Atlantic 4 8 X X X
Florida Intl. 4 8 X X X
Houston 4 8 X X X
Michigan St. 4 8 X X X
Middle Tenn. St. 4 8 X X X
New Mexico 4 8 X X X
Purdue 4 8 X X X
San Diego State 4 8 X X X
Tulsa 4 8 X X X
UAB 4 8 X X X
Wake Forest 4 8 X X X
Western Michigan 4 8 X X X
Arizona St. 3 9 X X X
Baylor 3 9 X X X
Buffalo 3 9 X X X
Charlotte 3 9 X X X
Cincinnati 3 9 X X X
Indiana 3 9 X X X
Louisiana Tech 3 9 X X X
Pittsburgh 3 9 X X X
Sam Houston 3 9 X X X
Southern Miss 3 9 X X X
Stanford 3 9 X X X
Temple 3 9 X X X
UConn 3 9 X X X
UMass 3 9 X X X
UTEP 3 9 X X X
Virginia 3 9 X X X
Akron 2 10 X X X
East Carolina 2 10 X X X
LA Monroe 2 10 X X X
Nevada 2 10 X X X
Vanderbilt 2 10 X X X
Kent State 1 11 X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot