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NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

2025 NCAA Football Playoff Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

College Football Playoff Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Football
National Champions		 Championship Game
Participate		 Semifinals Quarterfinals Round 1
Team W L
Ohio St. ?? ?? 18% 32% 57% >99% 100%
Indiana ?? ?? 16% 30% 54% 95% 100%
Georgia ?? ?? 11% 23% 49% 95% 100%
Oregon ?? ?? 10% 21% 45% 90% 100%
Texas Tech ?? ?? 8% 17% 36% 74% 100%
Oklahoma ?? ?? 7% 14% 28% 59% 100%
Ole Miss ?? ?? 6% 13% 25% 57% 100%
Alabama ?? ?? 5% 10% 21% 44% 79%
BYU ?? ?? 5% 9% 16% 34% 58%
Notre Dame ?? ?? 4% 9% 18% 43% 97%
North Texas ?? ?? 3% 6% 12% 25% 58%
Virginia ?? ?? 2% 5% 11% 25% 64%
Miami ?? ?? 2% 4% 8% 19% 49%
Tulane ?? ?? 2% 4% 8% 18% 42%
James Madison ?? ?? 1% 2% 5% 11% 27%
Texas A&M ?? ?? 1% 2% 4% 8% 17%
Duke ?? ?? <1% <1% 1% 2% 9%
UNLV ?? ?? X X X X X
Utah ?? ?? X X X X X
Vanderbilt ?? ?? X X X X X
Arizona ?? ?? X X X X X
Georgia Tech ?? ?? X X X X X
Houston ?? ?? X X X X X
Kennesaw St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Michigan ?? ?? X X X X X
Navy ?? ?? X X X X X
New Mexico ?? ?? X X X X X
Old Dominion ?? ?? X X X X X
San Diego State ?? ?? X X X X X
South Florida ?? ?? X X X X X
Texas ?? ?? X X X X X
UConn ?? ?? X X X X X
USC ?? ?? X X X X X
Arizona St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Boise State ?? ?? X X X X X
East Carolina ?? ?? X X X X X
Fresno State ?? ?? X X X X X
Hawaii ?? ?? X X X X X
Illinois ?? ?? X X X X X
Iowa ?? ?? X X X X X
Iowa St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Louisville ?? ?? X X X X X
Memphis ?? ?? X X X X X
Missouri ?? ?? X X X X X
Ohio ?? ?? X X X X X
Pittsburgh ?? ?? X X X X X
SMU ?? ?? X X X X X
TCU ?? ?? X X X X X
Tennessee ?? ?? X X X X X
Toledo ?? ?? X X X X X
Troy ?? ?? X X X X X
W. Kentucky ?? ?? X X X X X
Wake Forest ?? ?? X X X X X
Washington ?? ?? X X X X X
Western Michigan ?? ?? X X X X X
California ?? ?? X X X X X
Central Michigan ?? ?? X X X X X
Cincinnati ?? ?? X X X X X
Clemson ?? ?? X X X X X
Florida Intl. ?? ?? X X X X X
LSU ?? ?? X X X X X
Louisiana Tech ?? ?? X X X X X
Miami OH ?? ?? X X X X X
Minnesota ?? ?? X X X X X
Missouri St. ?? ?? X X X X X
N.C. State ?? ?? X X X X X
Nebraska ?? ?? X X X X X
Southern Miss ?? ?? X X X X X
Arkansas St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Black Knights ?? ?? X X X X X
Coastal Carolina ?? ?? X X X X X
Delaware ?? ?? X X X X X
Ga. Southern ?? ?? X X X X X
Kansas St. ?? ?? X X X X X
NorthwesternN. Western ?? ?? X X X X X
Penn St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Texas St. ?? ?? X X X X X
UL Lafayette ?? ?? X X X X X
UTSA ?? ?? X X X X X
Utah St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Washington St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Akron ?? ?? X X X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Auburn ?? ?? X X X X X
Baylor ?? ?? X X X X X
Buffalo ?? ?? X X X X X
Florida St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Kansas ?? ?? X X X X X
Kent State ?? ?? X X X X X
Kentucky ?? ?? X X X X X
Marshall ?? ?? X X X X X
Mississippi St.Miss. St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Rice ?? ?? X X X X X
Rutgers ?? ?? X X X X X
Temple ?? ?? X X X X X
UCF ?? ?? X X X X X
Air Force ?? ?? X X X X X
Ball State ?? ?? X X X X X
Bowling Green ?? ?? X X X X X
Eastern Michigan ?? ?? X X X X X
Florida ?? ?? X X X X X
Florida Atlantic ?? ?? X X X X X
Liberty ?? ?? X X X X X
Maryland ?? ?? X X X X X
Michigan St. ?? ?? X X X X X
New Mexico St. ?? ?? X X X X X
North Carolina ?? ?? X X X X X
South Alabama ?? ?? X X X X X
South Carolina ?? ?? X X X X X
Stanford ?? ?? X X X X X
Tulsa ?? ?? X X X X X
UAB ?? ?? X X X X X
West Virginia ?? ?? X X X X X
Wisconsin ?? ?? X X X X X
Wyoming ?? ?? X X X X X
Colorado ?? ?? X X X X X
LA Monroe ?? ?? X X X X X
Middle Tenn. St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Nevada ?? ?? X X X X X
Northern Illinois ?? ?? X X X X X
San José State ?? ?? X X X X X
Syracuse ?? ?? X X X X X
UCLA ?? ?? X X X X X
Virginia Tech ?? ?? X X X X X
Arkansas ?? ?? X X X X X
Boston College ?? ?? X X X X X
Colorado St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Oregon St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Purdue ?? ?? X X X X X
Sam Houston ?? ?? X X X X X
UTEP ?? ?? X X X X X
Charlotte ?? ?? X X X X X
Georgia St. ?? ?? X X X X X
Oklahoma St. ?? ?? X X X X X
UMass ?? ?? X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot