PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Oct 26 4:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 10 of 14

2025 NCAA Football Playoff Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

College Football Playoff Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Football
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Semifinals Quarterfinals Round 1
Team W L
Indiana 8 0 11% 21% 39% 71% 87%
Texas A&M 8 0 11% 20% 37% 67% 81%
Ohio St. 7 0 10% 20% 39% 71% 85%
Alabama 7 1 8% 15% 30% 59% 76%
Georgia Tech 8 0 7% 13% 25% 47% 66%
Georgia 6 1 6% 12% 25% 53% 73%
BYU 8 0 6% 12% 22% 39% 56%
Ole Miss 7 1 5% 11% 22% 46% 69%
Vanderbilt 7 1 4% 8% 17% 36% 57%
Miami 6 1 4% 8% 17% 36% 54%
Oregon 7 1 3% 8% 19% 45% 68%
Notre Dame 5 2 3% 6% 12% 27% 46%
Virginia 7 1 3% 5% 11% 22% 37%
Texas Tech 7 1 2% 5% 11% 23% 37%
Tennessee 6 2 2% 4% 8% 19% 35%
Cincinnati 7 1 2% 4% 8% 17% 28%
Louisville 6 1 2% 4% 8% 17% 28%
Tulane 6 1 2% 3% 6% 12% 25%
Navy 7 0 1% 3% 6% 11% 23%
Oklahoma 6 2 1% 2% 5% 11% 21%
Houston 7 1 1% 2% 4% 8% 15%
Texas 6 2 1% 2% 4% 8% 14%
Memphis 7 1 1% 2% 3% 7% 13%
Michigan 6 2 1% 2% 3% 6% 11%
Missouri 6 2 1% 1% 3% 8% 16%
South Florida 6 2 1% 1% 3% 5% 11%
USC 5 2 1% 1% 2% 6% 10%
North Texas 7 1 1% 1% 2% 4% 9%
James Madison 6 1 <1% 1% 1% 2% 6%
Utah 6 2 <1% 1% 1% 2% 5%
Boise State 6 2 <1% <1% 1% 2% 5%
San Diego State 6 1 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4%
TCU 6 2 <1% <1% 1% 2% 3%
UNLV 6 1 <1% <1% 1% 1% 4%
Duke 4 3 <1% <1% 1% 1% 4%
Pittsburgh 6 2 <1% <1% 1% 1% 3%
Iowa 6 2 <1% <1% 1% 1% 2%
East Carolina 4 3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Nebraska 6 2 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
Arizona St. 5 3 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1%
Washington 6 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
SMU 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Temple 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Wake Forest 5 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
Hawaii 6 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Southern Miss 6 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Troy 6 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
W. Kentucky 6 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
California 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Central Michigan 5 3 X X X X X
Fresno State 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Illinois 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Iowa St. 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kennesaw St. 5 2 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
LSU 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Miami OH 5 3 X X X X X
Minnesota 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
New Mexico 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
NorthwesternN. Western 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Ohio 5 3 X X X X X
Old Dominion 5 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UConn 5 3 X X X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 4 4 X X X X X
Arizona 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Arkansas St. 4 4 X X X X X
Auburn 4 4 X X X X X
Baylor 4 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Buffalo 4 4 X X X X X
Coastal Carolina 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Delaware 4 3 X X X X X
Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. 4 3 X X X X X
Kansas 4 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Kansas St. 4 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Louisiana Tech 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Marshall 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Maryland 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 4 4 X X X X X
Missouri St. 4 3 X X X X X
N.C. State 4 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rice 4 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Rutgers 4 4 X X X X X
Toledo 4 4 X X X X X
UCF 4 3 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Utah St. 4 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Washington St. 4 4 X X X X X
Western Michigan 4 4 X X X X X
Wyoming 4 4 X X X X X
Akron 3 6 X X X X X
Ball State 3 5 X X X X X
Black Knights 3 4 X X X X X
Bowling Green 3 5 X X X X X
Clemson 3 4 X X X X X
Colorado 3 5 X X X X X
Florida 3 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Florida Atlantic 3 5 X X X X X
Florida Intl. 3 4 X X X X X
Florida St. 3 4 X X X X X
Ga. Southern 3 5 X X X X X
Kent State 3 5 X X X X X
LA Monroe 3 5 X X X X X
Liberty 3 4 X X X X X
Michigan St. 3 5 X X X X X
New Mexico St. 3 4 X X X X X
Penn St. 3 4 X X X X X
South Carolina 3 5 X X X X X
Stanford 3 5 X X X X X
Syracuse 3 5 X X X X X
Texas St. 3 4 X X X X X
UAB 3 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UCLA 3 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
UTSA 3 4 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Virginia Tech 3 5 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Air Force 2 5 X X X X X
Arkansas 2 6 X X X X X
Colorado St. 2 6 X X X X X
Eastern Michigan 2 7 X X X X X
Kentucky 2 5 X X X X X
North Carolina 2 5 X X X X X
Northern Illinois 2 6 X X X X X
Purdue 2 6 X X X X X
San José State 2 5 X X X X X
South Alabama 2 6 X X X X X
Tulsa 2 6 X X X X X
UL Lafayette 2 6 X X X X X
UTEP 2 5 X X X X X
West Virginia 2 6 X X X X X
Wisconsin 2 6 X X X X X
Boston College 1 7 X X X X X
Charlotte 1 7 X X X X X
Georgia St. 1 7 X X X X X
Middle Tenn. St. 1 6 X X X X X
Nevada 1 7 X X X X X
Oklahoma St. 1 7 X X X X X
Oregon St. 1 7 X X X X X
Sam Houston 0 7 X X X X X
UMass 0 8 X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot