How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Indiana | 11 | 0 | 13% | 24% | 44% | 79% | 94% |
| Texas A&M | 10 | 0 | 13% | 23% | 42% | 72% | 83% |
| Ohio St. | 10 | 0 | 12% | 22% | 42% | 76% | 92% |
| Georgia | 9 | 1 | 10% | 20% | 40% | 78% | 95% |
| Texas Tech | 10 | 1 | 7% | 14% | 30% | 63% | 86% |
| Ole Miss | 10 | 1 | 7% | 14% | 29% | 59% | 83% |
| Oklahoma | 8 | 2 | 6% | 13% | 28% | 61% | 85% |
| BYU | 9 | 1 | 6% | 12% | 22% | 42% | 59% |
| Notre Dame | 8 | 2 | 5% | 11% | 23% | 50% | 79% |
| Oregon | 9 | 1 | 5% | 9% | 21% | 46% | 70% |
| Alabama | 8 | 2 | 3% | 6% | 13% | 27% | 44% |
| Utah | 8 | 2 | 2% | 5% | 9% | 22% | 44% |
| Georgia Tech | 9 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 40% |
| Virginia | 9 | 2 | 2% | 3% | 7% | 16% | 41% |
| North Texas | 9 | 1 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 29% |
| Tulane | 8 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 12% | 28% |
| Texas | 7 | 3 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 25% |
| Miami | 8 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 23% |
| James Madison | 9 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 10% | 24% |
| Michigan | 8 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| USC | 8 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 11% |
| Navy | 8 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 14% |
| Vanderbilt | 8 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| East Carolina | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| SMU | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Arizona St. | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Houston | 8 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| South Florida | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Memphis | 8 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San Diego State | 8 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 8 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UNLV | 8 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| W. Kentucky | 8 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arizona | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fresno State | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Hawaii | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Illinois | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kennesaw St. | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Louisville | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Missouri | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Missouri St. | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nebraska | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Old Dominion | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Southern Miss | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tennessee | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wake Forest | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Washington | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Boise State | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| California | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Central Michigan | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Coastal Carolina | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Iowa | 6 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa St. | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LSU | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Minnesota | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ohio | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| TCU | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Toledo | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Troy | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Western Michigan | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas St. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Baylor | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Black Knights | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Buffalo | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Clemson | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Delaware | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Duke | 5 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Florida Intl. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida St. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ga. Southern | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas St. | 5 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kentucky | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Louisiana Tech | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Marshall | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Miami OH | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 5 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| N.C. State | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rice | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rutgers | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Temple | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTSA | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Utah St. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Washington St. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Akron | 4 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Auburn | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ball State | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Eastern Michigan | 4 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida Atlantic | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kent State | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Liberty | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Maryland | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| North Carolina | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Penn St. | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Texas St. | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCF | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UL Lafayette | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| West Virginia | 4 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wyoming | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Air Force | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Bowling Green | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LA Monroe | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico St. | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Northern Illinois | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San José State | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Alabama | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Carolina | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Stanford | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Syracuse | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tulsa | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UAB | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCLA | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado St. | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nevada | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oregon St. | 2 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Purdue | 2 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sam Houston | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTEP | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Boston College | 1 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Charlotte | 1 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Georgia St. | 1 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oklahoma St. | 1 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UMass | 0 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |