How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Oregon | 13 | 0 | 24% | 40% | 63% | >99% | 100% |
| Georgia | 11 | 2 | 11% | 24% | 47% | >99% | 100% |
| Boise State | 12 | 1 | 11% | 23% | 49% | >99% | 100% |
| Arizona St. | 11 | 2 | 9% | 18% | 46% | >99% | 100% |
| Notre Dame | 11 | 1 | 9% | 18% | 33% | 58% | 100% |
| Texas | 11 | 2 | 8% | 15% | 34% | 59% | 100% |
| Ohio St. | 10 | 2 | 7% | 13% | 24% | 61% | 100% |
| Penn St. | 11 | 2 | 6% | 13% | 26% | 51% | 100% |
| SMU | 11 | 2 | 5% | 12% | 25% | 49% | 100% |
| Indiana | 11 | 1 | 5% | 10% | 20% | 42% | 100% |
| Clemson | 10 | 3 | 4% | 8% | 20% | 41% | 100% |
| Tennessee | 10 | 2 | 3% | 6% | 12% | 39% | 100% |
| Black Knights | 11 | 1 | X | X | X | X | X |
| BYU | 10 | 2 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Iowa St. | 10 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Marshall | 10 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Memphis | 10 | 2 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Miami | 10 | 2 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ohio | 10 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UL Lafayette | 10 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UNLV | 10 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Alabama | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Duke | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Illinois | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 9 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Missouri | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ole Miss | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sam Houston | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Carolina | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Syracuse | 9 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tulane | 9 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Baylor | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Buffalo | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado St. | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ga. Southern | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Iowa | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| James Madison | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas St. | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LSU | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Liberty | 8 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Louisville | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Miami OH | 8 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Navy | 8 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| TCU | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Texas A&M | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Texas Tech | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UConn | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| W. Kentucky | 8 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Washington St. | 8 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas St. | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Boston College | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Bowling Green | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| East Carolina | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Georgia Tech | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Minnesota | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Northern Illinois | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rutgers | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San José State | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Texas St. | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Toledo | 7 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| California | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Coastal Carolina | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Fresno State | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| N.C. State | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nebraska | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| North Carolina | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| North Texas | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Alabama | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Florida | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| USC | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTSA | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Vanderbilt | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Virginia Tech | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Washington | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| West Virginia | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Western Michigan | 6 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Air Force | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 5 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Auburn | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Charlotte | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Eastern Michigan | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Hawaii | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LA Monroe | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Louisiana Tech | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan St. | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Old Dominion | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oregon St. | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCLA | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Utah | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Virginia | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Akron | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arizona | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Central Michigan | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida Intl. | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Houston | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kentucky | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Maryland | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rice | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Troy | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCF | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Utah St. | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wake Forest | 4 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ball State | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida Atlantic | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Georgia St. | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nevada | 3 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico St. | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oklahoma St. | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San Diego State | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Stanford | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Temple | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tulsa | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UAB | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTEP | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wyoming | 3 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida St. | 2 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kennesaw St. | 2 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 2 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UMass | 2 | 10 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Purdue | 1 | 11 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Southern Miss | 1 | 11 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kent State | 0 | 12 | X | X | X | X | X |