PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Dec 5 6:30 am

NCAA Football - Regular Season Complete

2021 NCAA Football Playoff Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

College Football Playoff Performance Probabilities
  Record NCAA Football
National Champions
Championship Game
Participate
Playoff
Participate
Team W L
Michigan 12 1 27% 52% 100%
Cincinnati 13 0 24% 50% 100%
Alabama 12 1 24% 50% 100%
Georgia 12 1 24% 48% 100%
UL Lafayette 12 1 X X X
UTSA 12 1 X X X
Baylor 11 2 X X X
Houston 11 2 X X X
Notre Dame 11 1 X X X
Oklahoma St. 11 2 X X X
Pittsburgh 11 2 X X X
San Diego State 11 2 X X X
Appalachian St.App. St. 10 3 X X X
BYU 10 2 X X X
Coastal Carolina 10 2 X X X
Iowa 10 3 X X X
Michigan St. 10 2 X X X
Ohio St. 10 2 X X X
Oklahoma 10 2 X X X
Ole Miss 10 2 X X X
Oregon 10 3 X X X
Utah 10 3 X X X
Utah St. 10 3 X X X
Wake Forest 10 3 X X X
Air Force 9 3 X X X
Clemson 9 3 X X X
Fresno State 9 3 X X X
Kentucky 9 3 X X X
N.C. State 9 3 X X X
Northern Illinois 9 4 X X X
Arizona St. 8 4 X X X
Arkansas 8 4 X X X
Army 8 3 X X X
Central Michigan 8 4 X X X
Minnesota 8 4 X X X
Nevada 8 4 X X X
Purdue 8 4 X X X
SMU 8 4 X X X
Texas A&M 8 4 X X X
UAB 8 4 X X X
UCF 8 4 X X X
UCLA 8 4 X X X
W. Kentucky 8 5 X X X
Wisconsin 8 4 X X X
Boise State 7 5 X X X
East Carolina 7 5 X X X
Eastern Michigan 7 5 X X X
Georgia St. 7 5 X X X
Iowa St. 7 5 X X X
Kansas St. 7 5 X X X
Kent State 7 6 X X X
Liberty 7 5 X X X
Marshall 7 5 X X X
Miami 7 5 X X X
Mississippi St.Miss. St. 7 5 X X X
Oregon St. 7 5 X X X
Penn St. 7 5 X X X
Tennessee 7 5 X X X
Toledo 7 5 X X X
UTEP 7 5 X X X
Washington St. 7 5 X X X
Western Michigan 7 5 X X X
Auburn 6 6 X X X
Ball State 6 6 X X X
Boston College 6 6 X X X
Florida 6 6 X X X
Hawaii 6 7 X X X
LSU 6 6 X X X
Louisville 6 6 X X X
Maryland 6 6 X X X
Memphis 6 6 X X X
Miami OH 6 6 X X X
Middle Tenn. St. 6 6 X X X
Missouri 6 6 X X X
North Carolina 6 6 X X X
North Texas 6 6 X X X
Old Dominion 6 6 X X X
Rutgers 6 7 X X X
South Carolina 6 6 X X X
Texas Tech 6 6 X X X
Tulsa 6 6 X X X
Virginia 6 6 X X X
Virginia Tech 6 6 X X X
West Virginia 6 6 X X X
Wyoming 6 6 X X X
Charlotte 5 7 X X X
Florida Atlantic 5 7 X X X
Florida St. 5 7 X X X
Illinois 5 7 X X X
San José State 5 7 X X X
South Alabama 5 7 X X X
Syracuse 5 7 X X X
TCU 5 7 X X X
Texas 5 7 X X X
Troy 5 7 X X X
USC 5 7 X X X
Bowling Green 4 8 X X X
Buffalo 4 8 X X X
California 4 8 X X X
Colorado 4 8 X X X
LA Monroe 4 9 X X X
Rice 4 8 X X X
Texas St. 4 8 X X X
Washington 4 8 X X X
Colorado St. 3 9 X X X
Duke 3 9 X X X
Ga. Southern 3 9 X X X
Georgia Tech 3 9 X X X
Louisiana Tech 3 9 X X X
Navy 3 8 X X X
Nebraska 3 9 X X X
New Mexico 3 9 X X X
NorthwesternN. Western 3 9 X X X
Ohio 3 9 X X X
Southern Miss 3 9 X X X
Stanford 3 9 X X X
Temple 3 10 X X X
Akron 2 10 X X X
Arkansas St. 2 10 X X X
Florida Intl. 2 11 X X X
Indiana 2 10 X X X
Kansas 2 10 X X X
New Mexico St. 2 10 X X X
South Florida 2 10 X X X
Tulane 2 10 X X X
UNLV 2 10 X X X
Vanderbilt 2 10 X X X
Arizona 1 11 X X X
UConn 1 11 X X X
UMass 1 11 X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next playoff round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this playoff round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this playoff round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot