How far is your team going to proceed into the College Football Playoffs? The College Football Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your team will proceed to different playoffs rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. It will take several weeks of play (¼ to ½ of a season) before meaningful results start to appear. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.
| Record | NCAA Football National Champions |
Championship Game Participate |
Semifinals | Quarterfinals | Round 1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | |||||
| Texas A&M | 9 | 0 | 13% | 25% | 44% | 77% | 91% |
| Indiana | 10 | 0 | 13% | 24% | 46% | 81% | 95% |
| Ohio St. | 9 | 0 | 12% | 24% | 44% | 79% | 92% |
| Alabama | 8 | 1 | 10% | 20% | 39% | 74% | 89% |
| Georgia | 8 | 1 | 8% | 16% | 32% | 66% | 85% |
| Texas Tech | 9 | 1 | 6% | 14% | 29% | 62% | 84% |
| Ole Miss | 9 | 1 | 6% | 11% | 23% | 49% | 77% |
| Oregon | 8 | 1 | 5% | 11% | 24% | 54% | 78% |
| Notre Dame | 7 | 2 | 5% | 10% | 22% | 49% | 77% |
| BYU | 8 | 1 | 4% | 7% | 14% | 27% | 44% |
| Texas | 7 | 2 | 2% | 5% | 11% | 24% | 42% |
| Georgia Tech | 8 | 1 | 2% | 4% | 9% | 18% | 39% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 2 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 16% | 30% |
| USC | 7 | 2 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 25% |
| Utah | 7 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 30% |
| Tulane | 7 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 30% |
| Virginia | 8 | 2 | 1% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 25% |
| Vanderbilt | 8 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 5% | 11% | 25% |
| North Texas | 8 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 21% |
| James Madison | 8 | 1 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 20% |
| South Florida | 7 | 2 | 1% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 18% |
| Michigan | 7 | 2 | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Cincinnati | 7 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% |
| Pittsburgh | 7 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 10% |
| Miami | 7 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% |
| Navy | 7 | 2 | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| SMU | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 8% |
| Duke | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 6% |
| Arizona St. | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| East Carolina | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% | 5% |
| Memphis | 8 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Houston | 8 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Louisville | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Iowa | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| Kennesaw St. | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Southern Miss | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Missouri | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| Hawaii | 7 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Nebraska | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San Diego State | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| UConn | 7 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UNLV | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| W. Kentucky | 7 | 2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Arizona | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Boise State | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| California | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Coastal Carolina | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Fresno State | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Illinois | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Iowa St. | 6 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Jacksonville St.Jacksnvlle St. | 6 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Minnesota | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Missouri St. | 6 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Ohio | 6 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Old Dominion | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| TCU | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tennessee | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Troy | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wake Forest | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Washington | 6 | 3 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas St. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Baylor | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Black Knights | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Buffalo | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Central Michigan | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Delaware | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LSU | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Louisiana Tech | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Miami OH | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Mississippi St.Miss. St. | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| N.C. State | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NorthwesternN. Western | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rice | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Rutgers | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Temple | 5 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Toledo | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Utah St. | 5 | 4 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Western Michigan | 5 | 4 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Akron | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Appalachian St.App. St. | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Auburn | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ball State | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Clemson | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida Atlantic | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida Intl. | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida St. | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Ga. Southern | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kansas St. | 4 | 5 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Kentucky | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Liberty | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Marshall | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Maryland | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| North Carolina | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCF | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UL Lafayette | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTSA | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Washington St. | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| West Virginia | 4 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Wyoming | 4 | 5 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Air Force | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Bowling Green | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Eastern Michigan | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Florida | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Kent State | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| LA Monroe | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Michigan St. | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| New Mexico St. | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Penn St. | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| San José State | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Carolina | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Stanford | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Syracuse | 3 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Texas St. | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UAB | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UCLA | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Virginia Tech | 3 | 6 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 6 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Arkansas | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Colorado St. | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Northern Illinois | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oregon St. | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Purdue | 2 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| South Alabama | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Tulsa | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UTEP | 2 | 7 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Boston College | 1 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Charlotte | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Georgia St. | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Nevada | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Oklahoma St. | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| Sam Houston | 1 | 8 | X | X | X | X | X |
| UMass | 0 | 9 | X | X | X | X | X |