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Mon Oct 19 6:15 am

NHL - Week 4 of 28

Penguins What If?

The Penguins What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Penguins play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Penguins What If?

Next Game - Mammoth (6‑3‑0)

  Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L OTLi
Overtime Loses
 Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Win Next Game 4 5 1 9 5% 9% 12% - - - 6% 6% 62%
Current Standings 3 5 1 7 5% 9% 12% - - - 6% 6% 63%
Lose Next Game 3 6 1 7 4% 9% 12% - - - 6% 6% 64%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 5% 9% 12% - - - 6% 6% 62%
Current Standings 5% 9% 12% - - - 6% 6% 63%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 9% 12% - - - 6% 6% 64%
Best Case Scenario
   Penguins beats Mammoth
 Worst Case Scenario
   Mammoth beats Penguins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Metropolitan Divisional Winners Atlantic Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L OTL Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
75 of 75 100% 78 5 1 157 100% ^ ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
70 of 75 93% 73 10 1 147 >99% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
64 of 75 85% 67 16 1 135 94% 6% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
63 of 75 84% 66 17 1 133 91% 8% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
62 of 75 83% 65 18 1 131 87% 13% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
61 of 75 81% 64 19 1 129 82% 17% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
60 of 75 80% 63 20 1 127 74% 23% 2% - - - <1% <1% <1%
59 of 75 79% 62 21 1 125 67% 29% 4% - - - <1% <1% <1%
58 of 75 77% 61 22 1 123 59% 35% 6% - - - <1% <1% <1%
57 of 75 76% 60 23 1 121 51% 39% 9% - - - 1% <1% <1%
56 of 75 75% 59 24 1 119 44% 42% 13% - - - 1% <1% <1%
55 of 75 73% 58 25 1 117 36% 44% 17% - - - 3% <1% <1%
54 of 75 72% 57 26 1 115 30% 44% 21% - - - 4% <1% <1%
53 of 75 71% 56 27 1 113 23% 43% 26% - - - 6% 1% <1%
52 of 75 69% 55 28 1 111 19% 41% 30% - - - 9% 1% <1%
51 of 75 68% 54 29 1 109 15% 38% 33% - - - 12% 2% <1%
50 of 75 67% 53 30 1 107 11% 35% 36% - - - 14% 4% <1%
49 of 75 65% 52 31 1 105 9% 32% 36% - - - 17% 5% 1%
48 of 75 64% 51 32 1 103 7% 28% 37% - - - 20% 8% 1%
47 of 75 63% 50 33 1 101 5% 23% 38% - - - 21% 10% 2%
46 of 75 61% 49 34 1 99 3% 19% 37% - - - 22% 14% 5%
45 of 75 60% 48 35 1 97 3% 15% 35% - - - 22% 17% 8%
44 of 75 59% 47 36 1 95 2% 13% 31% - - - 21% 21% 12%
43 of 75 57% 46 37 1 93 1% 10% 29% - - - 18% 23% 18%
42 of 75 56% 45 38 1 91 1% 8% 25% - - - 16% 24% 26%
41 of 75 55% 44 39 1 89 1% 6% 22% - - - 13% 24% 34%
40 of 75 53% 43 40 1 87 <1% 4% 18% - - - 10% 22% 44%
39 of 75 52% 42 41 1 85 <1% 3% 15% - - - 7% 21% 54%
38 of 75 51% 41 42 1 83 <1% 2% 13% - - - 5% 17% 63%
37 of 75 49% 40 43 1 81 <1% 1% 10% - - - 3% 13% 73%
36 of 75 48% 39 44 1 79 <1% 1% 8% - - - 2% 9% 80%
35 of 75 47% 38 45 1 77 <1% 1% 5% - - - 1% 7% 86%
34 of 75 45% 37 46 1 75 <1% <1% 4% - - - 1% 4% 90%
33 of 75 44% 36 47 1 73 <1% <1% 3% - - - <1% 3% 94%
30 of 75 40% 33 50 1 67 <1% <1% 1% - - - <1% <1% 99%
20 of 75 27% 23 60 1 47 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
10 of 75 13% 13 70 1 27 X X <1% - - - X X >99%
0 of 75 0% 3 80 1 7 X X X - - - X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home ice advantage in the playoffs