The Most Important Games for the North Carolina Tar Heels are those conference games in the upcoming week whose outcome most changes the Tar Heels final standings. The Importance Factor provides a relative importance between games. North Carolina Tar Heels fans can use this table to identify the most interesting conference games in the upcoming week of play.
| Game | Importance Factor (0‑∼100) |
Game Winner |
North Carolina Resultant Probabilities | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Finish | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1* First and Second Round Byes |
2* First and Second Round Byes |
3* First and Second Round Byes |
4* First and Second Round Byes |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8** First Round Bye |
9** First Round Bye |
10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | NT | |||
| Boston College (6‑4) vs SMU (8‑2) |
1 | Boston College Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||
| SMU Wins | 3% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||
| N.C. State (7‑3) vs Virginia (5‑4) |
1 | N.C. State Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||
| Virginia Wins | 3% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | ||
| Duke (8‑2) vs Georgia Tech (4‑5) |
1 | Duke Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||
| Georgia Tech Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | ||
| Florida St. (7‑3) vs Louisville (5‑4) |
1 | Florida St. Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||
| Louisville Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | ||
| Clemson (9‑1) vs Wake Forest (8‑3) |
0 | Clemson Wins | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% |
| Current Probabilities | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||
| Wake Forest Wins | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 7% | ||