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Wed Dec 11 1:30 am

ACC Basketball - Week 6 of 18

Wake Forest What If?

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons What If table presents finishing probabilities depended upon how Wake Forest plays future conference games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future conference games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Wake Forest What If?

Next Game - Clemson (9‑1)

  Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
  W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10 11 12 13 14 15 NT
Win Next Game 2 0 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2%
Current Standings 1 0 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Lose Next Game 1 1 3% 5% 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Regular Season Finish
  1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10 11 12 13 14 15 NT
Best Case Scenario 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Current Standings 5% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 5% 7% 7% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5%
Best Case Scenario
   Georgia Tech beats Duke
   Wake Forest beats Clemson
   N.C. State beats Virginia
 Worst Case Scenario
   Duke beats Georgia Tech
   Clemson beats Wake Forest
   Virginia beats N.C. State
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Regular Season Finish
W L 1*
First and Second
Round Byes
 2*
First and Second
Round Byes
 3*
First and Second
Round Byes
 4*
First and Second
Round Byes
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8**
First Round Bye
 9**
First Round Bye
 10 11 12 13 14 15 NT
19 of 19 100% 20 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 19 95% 19 1 99% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 19 89% 18 2 93% 7% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 19 84% 17 3 73% 25% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 19 79% 16 4 41% 44% 14% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 19 74% 15 5 13% 37% 35% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 19 68% 14 6 2% 12% 32% 34% 17% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 19 63% 13 7 <1% 1% 9% 25% 34% 23% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 19 58% 12 8 <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 31% 30% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
10 of 19 53% 11 9 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 23% 32% 23% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
9 of 19 47% 10 10 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 29% 30% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 19 42% 9 11 X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 22% 32% 25% 10% 2% <1% <1%
7 of 19 37% 8 12 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 15% 29% 32% 16% 4% <1%
6 of 19 32% 7 13 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 25% 35% 22% 8%
5 of 19 26% 6 14 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 21% 37% 36%
4 of 19 21% 5 15 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 77%
3 of 19 16% 4 16 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 3% 96%
2 of 19 11% 3 17 X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 19 5% 2 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 19 0% 1 19 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first and second round byes in the post season conference tournament
  • ** denotes first round bye in the post season conference tournament