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Tue Jan 13 5:15 pm

Bundesliga - Week 22 of 39

Mainz What If?

The Mainz What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mainz What If?

Next Game - FC Cologne (4‑7‑5)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 3 9 6 15 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 6% 9% 12% 14% 16% 16% 23%
Current Standings 2 9 6 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 35%
Lose Next Game 2 10 6 12 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 11% 15% 18% 39%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 16% 16% 22%
Current Standings <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18% 35%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 7% 10% 13% 18% 44%
Best Case Scenario
   Borussia Dortmund beats St. Pauli
   Mainz beats FC Cologne
   SC Freiburg beats FC Augsburg
 Worst Case Scenario
   St. Pauli beats Borussia Dortmund
   FC Cologne beats Mainz
   FC Augsburg beats SC Freiburg
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
17 of 17 100% 19 9 6 63 <1% 2% 17% 40% 32% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 18 10 6 60 <1% <1% 3% 20% 41% 29% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 17 11 6 57 <1% <1% <1% 4% 22% 41% 27% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 16 12 6 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 27% 45% 20% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 17 76% 15 13 6 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 34% 41% 16% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
12 of 17 71% 14 14 6 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 11% 35% 37% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 17 65% 13 15 6 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 13% 35% 35% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 17 59% 12 16 6 42 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 12% 35% 35% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
9 of 17 53% 11 17 6 39 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 31% 36% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1%
8 of 17 47% 10 18 6 36 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 26% 38% 23% 5% 1% <1%
7 of 17 41% 9 19 6 33 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 20% 37% 28% 9% 1%
6 of 17 35% 8 20 6 30 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 15% 37% 34% 11%
5 of 17 29% 7 21 6 27 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 13% 40% 46%
4 of 17 24% 6 22 6 24 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 15% 84%
3 of 17 18% 5 23 6 21 X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% 2% 98%
2 of 17 12% 4 24 6 18 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 17 6% 3 25 6 15 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
0 of 17 0% 2 26 6 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Bundesliga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ##  denotes Relegation Playoff