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Sun Oct 6 11:30 am

Bundesliga - Week 7 of 39

Mainz What If?

The Mainz What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Mainz What If?

Next Game - RB Leipzig (4‑0‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Win Next Game 3 2 2 11 <1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2%
Current Standings 2 2 2 8 <1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% 3%
Lose Next Game 2 3 2 8 <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 7% 5% 4% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
Best Case Scenario <1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% 3%
Current Standings <1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% 3%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 8% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 7% 5% 3% 3%
Best Case Scenario
   Eintracht Frankfurt beats Bayern Munich
Worst Case Scenario
   Bayern Munich beats Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
Bundesliga Champions and UEFA
Champions League Participant
2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
6#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16##
Relegation
Playoff
28 of 28 100% 30 2 2 92 92% 8% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 28 96% 29 3 2 89 78% 22% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 28 93% 28 4 2 86 60% 39% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 28 89% 27 5 2 83 42% 54% 4% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 28 86% 26 6 2 80 25% 62% 12% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
23 of 28 82% 25 7 2 77 13% 58% 26% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
22 of 28 79% 24 8 2 74 5% 43% 41% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
21 of 28 75% 23 9 2 71 2% 24% 44% 25% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 28 71% 22 10 2 68 <1% 9% 33% 38% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 28 68% 21 11 2 65 <1% 3% 16% 36% 32% 12% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 28 64% 20 12 2 62 <1% <1% 5% 21% 36% 27% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 28 61% 19 13 2 59 <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 36% 25% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
16 of 28 57% 18 14 2 56 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 24% 35% 24% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
15 of 28 54% 17 15 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 26% 35% 22% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
14 of 28 50% 16 16 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 27% 35% 21% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 28 46% 15 17 2 47 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 28% 35% 20% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 28 43% 14 18 2 44 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 30% 36% 18% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 28 39% 13 19 2 41 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 32% 35% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 28 36% 12 20 2 38 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 35% 33% 13% 2% <1% <1%
9 of 28 32% 11 21 2 35 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 18% 37% 30% 10% 1% <1%
8 of 28 29% 10 22 2 32 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 21% 39% 27% 7% 1%
7 of 28 25% 9 23 2 29 X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 26% 41% 21% 4%
6 of 28 21% 8 24 2 26 X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 34% 39% 17%
5 of 28 18% 7 25 2 23 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 16% 42% 41%
4 of 28 14% 6 26 2 20 X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 26% 70%
3 of 28 11% 5 27 2 17 X X X X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 10% 90%
0 of 28 0% 2 30 2 8 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes Bundesliga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round
  • ##  denotes Relegation Playoff