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Sat Sep 14 5:15 pm

La Liga - Week 5 of 41

Barcelona What If?

The Barcelona What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Barcelona What If?

Next Game - Girona (2‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 7#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 5 0 0 15 24% 15% 11% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Current Standings 4 0 0 12 19% 13% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Lose Next Game 4 1 0 12 15% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 7#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 24% 15% 11% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Current Standings 19% 13% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Worst Case Scenario 15% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Best Case Scenario
   Barcelona beats Girona
 Worst Case Scenario
   Girona beats Barcelona
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participant
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participant
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 6***
UEFA Europa League
Participant
 7#
UEFA Conference League
Playoff Round
 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
34 of 34 100% 38 0 0 114 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 34 88% 34 4 0 102 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 34 74% 29 9 0 87 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 34 59% 24 14 0 72 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 34 56% 23 15 0 69 75% 23% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
18 of 34 53% 22 16 0 66 45% 40% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
17 of 34 50% 21 17 0 63 14% 36% 32% 14% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
16 of 34 47% 20 18 0 60 1% 9% 24% 32% 23% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 34 44% 19 19 0 57 <1% <1% 2% 8% 20% 29% 25% 12% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 34 41% 18 20 0 54 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 12% 23% 28% 21% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 34 38% 17 21 0 51 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 12% 23% 29% 21% 9% 2% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 34 35% 16 22 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 13% 26% 28% 19% 7% 1%
11 of 34 32% 15 23 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 23% 32% 32%
10 of 34 29% 14 24 0 42 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 14% 83%
5 of 34 15% 9 29 0 27 X X X X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 34 0% 4 34 0 12 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes La Liga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #  denotes advancement to UEFA Conference League Playoff Round