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Mon Jan 23 5:15 pm

La Liga - Week 25 of 43

Real Madrid What If?

The Real Madrid What If table presents different table probabilities dependent upon how it plays future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Real Madrid What If?

Next Game - Real Sociedad (12‑4‑2)

  Resultant Record Season Finish RelegationRel
  W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 6#
UEFA Europa Conference
League Qualifier
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Win Next Game 14 2 2 44 23% 70% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 13 2 2 41 20% 69% 8% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Lose Next Game 13 3 2 41 14% 68% 13% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Finishing Spot RelegationRel
  1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 6#
UEFA Europa Conference
League Qualifier
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Best Case Scenario 30% 63% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Current Standings 20% 69% 8% 2% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Worst Case Scenario 11% 71% 13% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
Best Case Scenario
   Girona beats Barcelona
   Real Madrid beats Real Sociedad
 Worst Case Scenario
   Barcelona beats Girona
   Real Sociedad beats Real Madrid
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Finishing Spot RelegationRel
W L T Pts 1*
La Liga Champions and UEFA Champions
League Participate
 2**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 3**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 4**
UEFA Champions League
Participate
 5***
UEFA Europa League
Participate
 6#
UEFA Europa Conference
League Qualifier
 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
21 of 21 100% 34 2 2 104 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 21 95% 33 3 2 101 96% 4% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
19 of 21 90% 32 4 2 98 86% 14% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
18 of 21 86% 31 5 2 95 67% 33% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
17 of 21 81% 30 6 2 92 44% 56% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 21 76% 29 7 2 89 26% 74% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 21 71% 28 8 2 86 13% 87% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 21 67% 27 9 2 83 6% 90% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 21 62% 26 10 2 80 2% 85% 13% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 21 57% 25 11 2 77 <1% 67% 30% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 21 52% 24 12 2 74 <1% 41% 45% 13% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
10 of 21 48% 23 13 2 71 <1% 17% 44% 31% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 21 43% 22 14 2 68 <1% 4% 25% 41% 24% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
8 of 21 38% 21 15 2 65 <1% <1% 7% 27% 39% 21% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
7 of 21 33% 20 16 2 62 <1% <1% 1% 7% 27% 37% 22% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
6 of 21 29% 19 17 2 59 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 23% 36% 25% 8% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
5 of 21 24% 18 18 2 56 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 32% 30% 13% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
4 of 21 19% 17 19 2 53 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 27% 34% 20% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
3 of 21 14% 16 20 2 50 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 20% 34% 27% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
2 of 21 10% 15 21 2 47 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 13% 31% 33% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1%
1 of 21 5% 14 22 2 44 X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 26% 36% 22% 6% 1% <1%
0 of 21 0% 13 23 2 41 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 21% 36% 28% 8% 1%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this spot
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes La Liga Champions and advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • **  denotes advancement to UEFA Champions League
  • *** denotes advancement to UEFA Europa League
  • #   denotes advancement to UEFA Europa Conference League Qualifing