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Sat Mar 21 3:30 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 38

LAFC What If?

The LAFC What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the LAFC play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

LAFC What If?

Next Game - Austin FC (1‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 5 0 0 15 23% 16% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 10%
Current Standings 4 0 0 12 17% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 16%
Lose Next Game 4 1 0 12 13% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 5% 20%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 23% 16% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 10%
Current Standings 17% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 16%
Worst Case Scenario 13% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 5% 20%
Best Case Scenario
   LAFC beats Austin FC
 Worst Case Scenario
   Austin FC beats LAFC
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
30 of 30 100% 34 0 0 102 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 29 5 0 87 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
20 of 30 67% 24 10 0 72 99% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 30 60% 22 12 0 66 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 30 57% 21 13 0 63 77% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 20 14 0 60 49% 39% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 30 50% 19 15 0 57 18% 40% 30% 10% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
14 of 30 47% 18 16 0 54 2% 14% 31% 31% 17% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 30 43% 17 17 0 51 <1% 1% 5% 17% 29% 29% 15% 4% 1% <1%
12 of 30 40% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 14% 28% 30% 17% 7%
11 of 30 37% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 11% 25% 61%
10 of 30 33% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 97%
5 of 30 17% 9 25 0 27 X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 30 0% 4 30 0 12 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs