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Sun Mar 19 1:00 am

MLS - Week 5 of 35

LAFC What If?

The LAFC What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the LAFC play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

LAFC What If?

Next Game - FC Dallas (2‑1‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 3 0 1 10 19% 13% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 15%
Current Standings 2 0 1 7 19% 13% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 18%
Lose Next Game 2 1 1 7 15% 12% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 19%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 19% 13% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 15%
Current Standings 19% 13% 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 18%
Worst Case Scenario 15% 12% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 19%
Best Case Scenario
   LAFC beats FC Dallas
 Worst Case Scenario
   FC Dallas beats LAFC
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
31 of 31 100% 33 0 1 100 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 31 97% 32 1 1 97 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
28 of 31 90% 30 3 1 91 95% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 31 87% 29 4 1 88 87% 13% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 31 84% 28 5 1 85 72% 27% 1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 31 81% 27 6 1 82 54% 40% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
24 of 31 77% 26 7 1 79 34% 49% 16% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
23 of 31 74% 25 8 1 76 18% 46% 31% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
22 of 31 71% 24 9 1 73 7% 33% 41% 17% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
21 of 31 68% 23 10 1 70 2% 17% 39% 32% 9% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 31 65% 22 11 1 67 <1% 6% 26% 39% 22% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 31 61% 21 12 1 64 <1% 2% 13% 34% 35% 14% 2% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 31 58% 20 13 1 61 <1% <1% 4% 21% 37% 28% 8% 1% <1% <1%
17 of 31 55% 19 14 1 58 <1% <1% 1% 9% 27% 36% 21% 5% <1% <1%
16 of 31 52% 18 15 1 55 <1% <1% <1% 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 2% <1%
15 of 31 48% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% <1% 1% 7% 23% 35% 25% 8% 1%
14 of 31 45% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 30% 35% 17% 4%
13 of 31 42% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 19% 35% 30% 12%
12 of 31 39% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 27% 36% 28%
11 of 31 35% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 34% 49%
10 of 31 32% 12 21 1 37 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 73%
9 of 31 29% 11 22 1 34 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 89%
5 of 31 16% 7 26 1 22 X X X X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
0 of 31 0% 2 31 1 7 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs