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Mon Feb 23 1:15 am

MLS - Week 1 of 38

Revolution What If?

The Revolution What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Revolution play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Revolution What If?

Next Game - Red Bulls (1‑0)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 1 0 3 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 35%
Current Standings 0 1 0 0 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 44%
Lose Next Game 0 2 0 0 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 50%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 33%
Current Standings 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 44%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 51%
Best Case Scenario
   Revolution beats Red Bulls
   Whitecaps beats Toronto FC
 Worst Case Scenario
   Red Bulls beats Revolution
   Toronto FC beats Whitecaps
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
33 of 33 100% 33 1 0 99 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 30 4 0 90 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 33 76% 25 9 0 75 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
21 of 33 64% 21 13 0 63 87% 13% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 33 61% 20 14 0 60 65% 30% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 33 58% 19 15 0 57 33% 44% 19% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 33 55% 18 16 0 54 7% 27% 36% 22% 7% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 33 52% 17 17 0 51 <1% 4% 15% 29% 30% 16% 5% 1% <1% <1%
16 of 33 48% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% 1% 4% 14% 26% 30% 18% 6% 1%
15 of 33 45% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 23% 30% 35%
14 of 33 42% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 7% 91%
10 of 33 30% 10 24 0 30 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 33 15% 5 29 0 15 X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 33 0% 0 34 0 0 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs