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Sun Mar 1 11:45 pm

MLS - Week 3 of 38

Revolution What If?

The Revolution What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Revolution play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Revolution What If?

Next Game - FC Cincinnati (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 2 0 3 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 41%
Current Standings 0 2 0 0 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 48%
Lose Next Game 0 3 0 0 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 57%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 46%
Current Standings 4% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 48%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 49%
Best Case Scenario
   Austin FC beats Charlotte FC
   Minnesota United beats Nashville SC
 Worst Case Scenario
   Charlotte FC beats Austin FC
   Nashville SC beats Minnesota United
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
32 of 32 100% 32 2 0 96 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 32 94% 30 4 0 90 >99% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 32 78% 25 9 0 75 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
21 of 32 66% 21 13 0 63 87% 12% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 32 63% 20 14 0 60 67% 29% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 32 59% 19 15 0 57 36% 43% 17% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 32 56% 18 16 0 54 9% 29% 36% 20% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 32 53% 17 17 0 51 <1% 5% 18% 31% 28% 14% 4% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 32 50% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% 1% 5% 17% 29% 28% 15% 4% 1%
15 of 32 47% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 12% 26% 30% 28%
14 of 32 44% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 88%
10 of 32 31% 10 24 0 30 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 32 16% 5 29 0 15 X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 32 0% 0 34 0 0 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs