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Mon Feb 23 1:15 am

MLS - Week 1 of 38

Sounders What If?

The Sounders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Sounders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Sounders What If?

Next Game - Real Salt Lake (0‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 2 0 0 6 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 25%
Current Standings 1 0 0 3 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 35%
Lose Next Game 1 1 0 3 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 40%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 13% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 24%
Current Standings 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 35%
Worst Case Scenario 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 41%
Best Case Scenario
   Atlanta United beats Earthquakes
   Sounders beats Real Salt Lake
 Worst Case Scenario
   Earthquakes beats Atlanta United
   Real Salt Lake beats Sounders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
33 of 33 100% 34 0 0 102 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
30 of 33 91% 31 3 0 93 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 33 76% 26 8 0 78 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
21 of 33 64% 22 12 0 66 94% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 33 61% 21 13 0 63 83% 16% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 33 58% 20 14 0 60 60% 34% 6% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 33 55% 19 15 0 57 26% 44% 24% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 33 52% 18 16 0 54 5% 21% 35% 27% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 33 48% 17 17 0 51 <1% 2% 10% 25% 31% 22% 9% 2% <1% <1%
15 of 33 45% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% 2% 8% 21% 30% 25% 11% 3%
14 of 33 42% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 28% 50%
10 of 33 30% 11 23 0 33 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 33 15% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 33 0% 1 33 0 3 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs