PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Mar 16 10:15 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 35

Sounders What If?

The Sounders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Sounders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Sounders What If?

Next Game - Dynamo (0‑3‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10
Win Next Game 2 2 1 7 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 32%
Current Standings 1 2 1 4 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 33%
Lose Next Game 1 3 1 4 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 8% 38%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10
Best Case Scenario 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 31%
Current Standings 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 33%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 4% 6% 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 8% 38%
Best Case Scenario
   Galaxy beats Minnesota United
   Sounders beats Dynamo
Worst Case Scenario
   Minnesota United beats Galaxy
   Dynamo beats Sounders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
5**
First Round Bye
6**
First Round Bye
7**
First Round Bye
8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
9 10
30 of 30 100% 31 2 1 94 >99% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
27 of 30 90% 28 5 1 85 89% 11% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
26 of 30 87% 27 6 1 82 76% 23% 1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 26 7 1 79 59% 36% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
24 of 30 80% 25 8 1 76 40% 45% 13% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
23 of 30 77% 24 9 1 73 23% 46% 26% 5% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
22 of 30 73% 23 10 1 70 11% 37% 37% 13% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
21 of 30 70% 22 11 1 67 4% 23% 40% 26% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 30 67% 21 12 1 64 1% 11% 32% 37% 16% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 30 63% 20 13 1 61 <1% 4% 18% 37% 30% 10% 1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 30 60% 19 14 1 58 <1% 1% 7% 26% 37% 23% 6% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 30 57% 18 15 1 55 <1% <1% 2% 12% 31% 34% 17% 3% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 17 16 1 52 <1% <1% <1% 4% 17% 35% 31% 11% 2% <1%
15 of 30 50% 16 17 1 49 <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 22% 37% 26% 8% 1%
14 of 30 47% 15 18 1 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 8% 26% 37% 22% 6%
13 of 30 43% 14 19 1 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11% 30% 36% 22%
12 of 30 40% 13 20 1 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 14% 32% 51%
11 of 30 37% 12 21 1 37 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 17% 80%
10 of 30 33% 11 22 1 34 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 95%
5 of 30 17% 6 27 1 19 X X X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 30 0% 1 32 1 4 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs