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Sun Mar 15 9:30 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 38

Timbers What If?

The Timbers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Timbers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Timbers What If?

Next Game - Galaxy (1‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 2 3 0 6 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 51%
Current Standings 1 3 0 3 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 58%
Lose Next Game 1 4 0 3 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 66%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8% 51%
Current Standings 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 58%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 7% 66%
Best Case Scenario
   Timbers beats Galaxy
 Worst Case Scenario
   Galaxy beats Timbers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
30 of 30 100% 31 3 0 93 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 26 8 0 78 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
21 of 30 70% 22 12 0 66 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 30 67% 21 13 0 63 77% 21% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 30 63% 20 14 0 60 48% 40% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 30 60% 19 15 0 57 17% 39% 31% 11% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 30 57% 18 16 0 54 2% 13% 30% 33% 18% 5% 1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 17 17 0 51 <1% 1% 4% 16% 29% 28% 16% 4% 1% <1%
15 of 30 50% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3% 13% 27% 30% 18% 7%
14 of 30 47% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 10% 24% 63%
10 of 30 33% 11 23 0 33 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 30 17% 6 28 0 18 X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 30 0% 1 33 0 3 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs