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Sun Jun 19 8:45 pm

MLS - Week 18 of 33

Timbers What If?

The Timbers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Timbers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Timbers What If?

Next Game - Rapids (5‑6‑4)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1* 2** 3** 4** 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 6 7 19 <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7% 77%
Current Standings 3 6 7 16 <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 80%
Lose Next Game 3 7 7 16 <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 86%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1* 2** 3** 4** 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7% 77%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 80%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 4% 6% 86%
Best Case Scenario
   Timbers beats Rapids
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rapids beats Timbers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1* 2** 3** 4** 5 6 7 8
18 of 18 100% 21 6 7 70 52% 40% 7% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^
17 of 18 94% 20 7 7 67 27% 47% 22% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 18 89% 19 8 7 64 10% 36% 38% 15% 2% <1% <1% <1%
15 of 18 83% 18 9 7 61 2% 16% 37% 32% 11% 2% <1% <1%
14 of 18 78% 17 10 7 58 <1% 3% 17% 35% 31% 12% 2% <1%
13 of 18 72% 16 11 7 55 <1% <1% 3% 16% 34% 32% 13% 2%
12 of 18 67% 15 12 7 52 <1% <1% <1% 2% 12% 31% 33% 21%
11 of 18 61% 14 13 7 49 <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 9% 27% 63%
10 of 18 56% 13 14 7 46 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 6% 93%
9 of 18 50% 12 15 7 43 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
8 of 18 44% 11 16 7 40 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
7 of 18 39% 10 17 7 37 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
6 of 18 33% 9 18 7 34 X X X X <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 18 28% 8 19 7 31 X X X X X X <1% >99%
4 of 18 22% 7 20 7 28 X X X X X X X 100%
3 of 18 17% 6 21 7 25 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 18 11% 5 22 7 22 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 18 6% 4 23 7 19 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 18 0% 3 24 7 16 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs