The Union What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Union play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Win Next Game | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | <1% | 33% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 6% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 14 | 8 | 7 | 49 | <1% | 26% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 9% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 14 | 9 | 7 | 49 | X | 12% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 15% | 12% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | |
| Best Case Scenario | <1% | 63% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | <1% | 26% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 9% | 7% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | X | 2% | 9% | 21% | 27% | 22% | 19% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Union beats FC Dallas Union beats Crew CF Montréal beats Orlando City SC |
Worst Case Scenario FC Dallas beats Union Crew beats Union Orlando City SC beats CF Montréal |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Conference Playoff Spots | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | Pts | 1* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
2* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
3* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
4* First Round Bye and Second Round Home Field Advantage |
5** First Round Bye |
6** First Round Bye |
7** First Round Bye |
8*** First Round Home Field Advantage |
9 | 10 | ||
| 5 of 5 | 100% | 19 | 8 | 7 | 64 | <1% | >99% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 5 | 80% | 18 | 9 | 7 | 61 | X | 79% | 21% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 5 | 60% | 17 | 10 | 7 | 58 | X | 19% | 54% | 25% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 5 | 40% | 16 | 11 | 7 | 55 | X | <1% | 6% | 39% | 46% | 8% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 5 | 20% | 15 | 12 | 7 | 52 | X | X | <1% | 1% | 19% | 51% | 30% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 0 of 5 | 0% | 14 | 13 | 7 | 49 | X | X | X | X | X | 5% | 93% | 3% | ^ | ^ |