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Sun Mar 15 9:30 pm

MLS - Week 5 of 38

Union What If?

The Union What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Union play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Union What If?

Next Game - Fire (1‑2‑1)

  Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Win Next Game 1 4 0 3 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 58%
Current Standings 0 4 0 0 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 65%
Lose Next Game 0 5 0 0 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 6% 74%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
Best Case Scenario 2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 58%
Current Standings 1% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 65%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 6% 74%
Best Case Scenario
   Union beats Fire
 Worst Case Scenario
   Fire beats Union
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Conference Playoff Spots No Playoffs No POs
W L T Pts 1*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 2*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 3*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 4*
First Round Bye and Second Round
Home Field Advantage
 5**
First Round Bye
 6**
First Round Bye
 7**
First Round Bye
 8***
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 9 10
30 of 30 100% 30 4 0 90 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
25 of 30 83% 25 9 0 75 >99% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
21 of 30 70% 21 13 0 63 88% 12% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
20 of 30 67% 20 14 0 60 67% 29% 4% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
19 of 30 63% 19 15 0 57 35% 44% 18% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
18 of 30 60% 18 16 0 54 8% 29% 36% 20% 6% 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%
17 of 30 57% 17 17 0 51 <1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 4% <1% <1% <1%
16 of 30 53% 16 18 0 48 <1% <1% 1% 5% 16% 29% 28% 16% 5% 1%
15 of 30 50% 15 19 0 45 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12% 25% 31% 29%
14 of 30 47% 14 20 0 42 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9% 89%
10 of 30 33% 10 24 0 30 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 30 17% 5 29 0 15 X X X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 30 0% 0 34 0 0 X X X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *   denotes first round bye and second round home field advantage in the playoffs
  • **  denotes first round home bye in the playoffs
  • *** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs