PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Sep 24 3:45 am

NCAA Football - Week 5 of 13

Duke Most Likely Playoff Participation Outcomes - Lose 1

If it loses one of its remaining games, Duke will make the 2023 NCAA Football Playoffs 50% of the times. The two tables below show the most likely outcomes when the team makes and misses the playoffs if that loss occurs. (This content is currently in an experimental state.)

If it loses one of its remaining games, Duke makes the playoffs 50% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to Duke making the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (19)Duke plays in the ACC Championship Game
  • (19)Duke opponents win (SOS related)
  • (15)Miami loses 5 or more games
  • (26)Syracuse loses 6 or more games
Duke Most Likely Outcome - Lose 1 - Making the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. (2) Big 10Big 10 112 12 1 - - 100%
2 Oregon (4) PAC 12PAC 12 107 11 2 - - 100%
3 Georgia (6) SECSEC 103 11 2 - - 100%
4 Duke (19) ACCACC 102 12 1 - - 100%
 
5 Kansas (22) Big 12Big 12 98 13 0 - - X
6 Penn St. (3) Big 10Big 10 97 10 2 - - X
7 Florida St. (7) ACCACC 95 11 1 - - X
8 Florida (18) SECSEC 92 9 3 - - X
9 Marshall (36) SunbeltSunbelt 92 13 1 - - X
10 Notre Dame (24) NCAA IndependentsInd. 91 10 2 - - X




If it loses one of its remaining games, Duke misses the playoffs 50% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to Duke missing the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (19)Duke does not plays in the ACC Championship Game
  • (19)Duke opponents lose (SOS related)
  • (15)Miami wins 8 or more games
  • (26)Syracuse wins 8 or more games
  • (18)Florida wins 8 or more games
Duke Most Likely Outcome - Lose 1 - Missing the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Oregon (4) PAC 12PAC 12 107 12 1 - - 100%
2 Alabama (8) SECSEC 102 10 2 - - 100%
3 Michigan (1) Big 10Big 10 101 10 2 - - 100%
4 Texas (5) Big 12Big 12 101 11 1 - - 100%
 
5 Penn St. (3) Big 10Big 10 100 11 2 - - X
6 Oklahoma (14) Big 12Big 12 100 12 1 - - X
7 Miami (15) ACCACC 100 12 1 - - X
8 Syracuse (26) ACCACC 95 12 1 - - X
9 Duke (19) ACCACC 93 11 1 - - X
10 Florida St. (7) ACCACC 92 10 2 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot