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Mon Oct 12 12:00 am

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Falcons What If?

The Falcons What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Falcons play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Falcons What If?

Next Game - Bears (3‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 3 0 1% 3% 9% 14% 2% 4% 5% 61%
Current Standings 2 3 0 1% 3% 8% 14% 2% 3% 5% 64%
Lose Next Game 2 4 0 <1% 1% 6% 14% 1% 2% 4% 71%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 1% 3% 9% 16% 3% 4% 5% 59%
Current Standings 1% 3% 8% 14% 2% 3% 5% 64%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 7% 12% 1% 3% 4% 73%
Best Case Scenario
   Falcons beats Bears
   Giants beats Saints
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bears beats Falcons
   Saints beats Giants
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
12 of 12 100% 14 3 0 56% 40% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
11 of 12 92% 13 4 0 21% 48% 25% 3% 3% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 12 83% 12 5 0 3% 25% 46% 15% 9% 2% <1% <1%
9 of 12 75% 11 6 0 <1% 6% 38% 32% 10% 11% 4% <1%
8 of 12 67% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 16% 41% 4% 14% 16% 9%
7 of 12 58% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 4% 31% <1% 5% 17% 42%
6 of 12 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 15% <1% <1% 5% 79%
5 of 12 42% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 5% <1% <1% <1% 95%
4 of 12 33% 6 11 0 X X <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
3 of 12 25% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 12 17% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 12 8% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 12 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs