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Thu Oct 22 11:45 pm

NFL - Week 7 of 18

Falcons What If?

The Falcons What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Falcons play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Falcons What If?

Next Game - Forty-Niners (6‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 4 0 <1% 1% 8% 8% 1% 4% 6% 71%
Current Standings 2 4 0 <1% 1% 6% 7% 1% 3% 5% 78%
Lose Next Game 2 5 0 <1% <1% 4% 7% 1% 2% 4% 82%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 2% 10% 10% 1% 3% 5% 69%
Current Standings <1% 1% 6% 7% 1% 3% 5% 78%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 4% 6% 1% 2% 4% 83%
Best Case Scenario
   Steelers beats Saints
   Falcons beats Forty-Niners
   Buccaneers beats Panthers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Saints beats Steelers
   Forty-Niners beats Falcons
   Panthers beats Buccaneers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 13 4 0 21% 51% 25% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 11 91% 12 5 0 3% 29% 49% 6% 10% 4% <1% <1%
9 of 11 82% 11 6 0 <1% 7% 47% 15% 11% 15% 5% <1%
8 of 11 73% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 26% 24% 4% 17% 19% 9%
7 of 11 64% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 8% 20% 1% 6% 21% 44%
6 of 11 55% 8 9 0 <1% <1% 1% 10% <1% <1% 5% 83%
5 of 11 45% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 97%
4 of 11 36% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 11 27% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 11 18% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 11 9% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 11 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs