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Fri Sep 29 3:30 am

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Raiders What If?

The Raiders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Raiders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Raiders What If?

Next Game - Chargers (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 2 0 2% 5% 9% 12% 3% 5% 6% 59%
Current Standings 1 2 0 1% 4% 7% 10% 3% 4% 5% 64%
Lose Next Game 1 3 0 <1% 2% 5% 10% 2% 4% 6% 70%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 2% 5% 9% 12% 3% 5% 6% 59%
Current Standings 1% 4% 7% 10% 3% 4% 5% 64%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 2% 5% 10% 2% 4% 6% 70%
Best Case Scenario
   Raiders beats Chargers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Chargers beats Raiders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 15 2 0 76% 22% 2% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 14 3 0 42% 44% 13% 1% 1% <1% <1% ^
12 of 14 86% 13 4 0 13% 40% 34% 6% 5% 1% <1% <1%
11 of 14 79% 12 5 0 2% 19% 40% 19% 13% 6% 1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 25% 33% 12% 17% 8% 2%
9 of 14 64% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 8% 30% 5% 18% 22% 17%
8 of 14 57% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 19% 1% 6% 19% 54%
7 of 14 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 8% <1% 1% 5% 85%
6 of 14 43% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% <1% 97%
5 of 14 36% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 14 29% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 14 21% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 14 14% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs