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Tue Sep 16 1:15 am

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Raiders What If?

The Raiders What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Raiders play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Raiders What If?

Next Game - Commanders (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 1 0 6% 8% 6% 5% 14% 10% 8% 44%
Current Standings 1 1 0 5% 6% 6% 4% 14% 9% 8% 48%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 3% 5% 5% 5% 12% 10% 9% 51%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 6% 8% 7% 6% 12% 10% 8% 43%
Current Standings 5% 6% 6% 4% 14% 9% 8% 48%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 5% 5% 5% 13% 10% 8% 51%
Best Case Scenario
   Raiders beats Commanders
   Broncos beats Chargers
 Worst Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Raiders
   Chargers beats Broncos
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 16 1 0 83% 15% <1% <1% 2% ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 15 2 0 56% 31% 4% <1% 9% <1% ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 14 3 0 26% 37% 13% 1% 22% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 15 80% 13 4 0 8% 27% 22% 5% 34% 4% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 12 5 0 1% 11% 21% 11% 38% 16% 2% <1%
10 of 15 67% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 11% 14% 27% 31% 12% 2%
9 of 15 60% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 12% 10% 30% 28% 17%
8 of 15 53% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 6% 2% 12% 27% 53%
7 of 15 47% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 2% 10% 86%
6 of 15 40% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 98%
5 of 15 33% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs