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Fri Oct 17 12:00 am

NFL - Week 7 of 18

Ravens What If?

The Ravens What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Ravens play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Ravens What If?

Next Game - Bears (3‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 5 0 <1% <1% 1% 5% <1% 1% 2% 91%
Current Standings 1 5 0 <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 1% 2% 94%
Lose Next Game 1 6 0 <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% <1% 1% 95%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 1% 2% 93%
Current Standings <1% <1% 1% 4% <1% 1% 2% 94%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 3% <1% 1% 2% 94%
Best Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Browns
   Chiefs beats Raiders
 Worst Case Scenario
   Browns beats Dolphins
   Raiders beats Chiefs
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 12 5 0 5% 31% 44% 17% 3% 1% <1% <1%
10 of 11 91% 11 6 0 <1% 9% 35% 40% 7% 7% 2% <1%
9 of 11 82% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 12% 45% 6% 17% 14% 6%
8 of 11 73% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 28% 1% 8% 22% 39%
7 of 11 64% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 10% <1% 1% 6% 82%
6 of 11 55% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 98%
5 of 11 45% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 11 36% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 11 27% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 11 18% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 11 9% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 11 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs