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Sat Oct 31 4:45 am

NHL - Week 5 of 28

Flames What If?

The Flames What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Flames play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Flames What If?

Next Game - Avalanche (7‑5‑1)

  Resultant Record Pacific Divisional Winners Central Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L OTLi
Overtime Loses
 Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Win Next Game 7 7 0 14 8% 13% 13% - - - 8% 7% 51%
Current Standings 6 7 0 12 7% 13% 14% - - - 7% 7% 52%
Lose Next Game 6 8 0 12 7% 12% 14% - - - 7% 7% 54%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Pacific Divisional Winners Central Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
Best Case Scenario 8% 13% 13% - - - 8% 7% 51%
Current Standings 7% 13% 14% - - - 7% 7% 52%
Worst Case Scenario 7% 12% 14% - - - 7% 7% 54%
Best Case Scenario
   Flames beats Avalanche
 Worst Case Scenario
   Avalanche beats Flames
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Pacific Divisional Winners Central Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L OTL Pts 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 1*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 2*
First Round Home
Ice Advantage
 3 7 8 9
71 of 71 100% 77 7 0 154 >99% <1% ^ - - - ^ ^ ^
70 of 71 99% 76 8 0 152 >99% <1% <1% - - - ^ ^ ^
60 of 71 85% 66 18 0 132 96% 4% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
59 of 71 83% 65 19 0 130 94% 6% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
58 of 71 82% 64 20 0 128 90% 10% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
57 of 71 80% 63 21 0 126 87% 13% <1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
56 of 71 79% 62 22 0 124 81% 18% 1% - - - <1% <1% <1%
55 of 71 77% 61 23 0 122 76% 22% 2% - - - <1% <1% <1%
54 of 71 76% 60 24 0 120 69% 28% 3% - - - <1% <1% <1%
53 of 71 75% 59 25 0 118 61% 34% 5% - - - <1% <1% <1%
52 of 71 73% 58 26 0 116 54% 38% 7% - - - <1% <1% <1%
51 of 71 72% 57 27 0 114 46% 42% 11% - - - 1% <1% <1%
50 of 71 70% 56 28 0 112 39% 45% 15% - - - 2% <1% <1%
49 of 71 69% 55 29 0 110 32% 46% 19% - - - 3% <1% <1%
48 of 71 68% 54 30 0 108 26% 46% 23% - - - 4% <1% <1%
47 of 71 66% 53 31 0 106 21% 43% 28% - - - 7% 1% <1%
46 of 71 65% 52 32 0 104 16% 41% 33% - - - 9% 1% <1%
45 of 71 63% 51 33 0 102 12% 37% 36% - - - 13% 2% <1%
44 of 71 62% 50 34 0 100 8% 31% 39% - - - 18% 4% <1%
43 of 71 61% 49 35 0 98 6% 27% 38% - - - 21% 6% 1%
42 of 71 59% 48 36 0 96 4% 22% 38% - - - 25% 9% 1%
41 of 71 58% 47 37 0 94 3% 17% 36% - - - 26% 14% 4%
40 of 71 56% 46 38 0 92 2% 13% 34% - - - 27% 18% 6%
39 of 71 55% 45 39 0 90 1% 10% 28% - - - 24% 24% 13%
38 of 71 54% 44 40 0 88 1% 7% 25% - - - 20% 27% 20%
37 of 71 52% 43 41 0 86 <1% 5% 19% - - - 16% 26% 33%
36 of 71 51% 42 42 0 84 <1% 3% 16% - - - 11% 25% 44%
35 of 71 49% 41 43 0 82 <1% 2% 12% - - - 7% 21% 58%
34 of 71 48% 40 44 0 80 <1% 1% 8% - - - 4% 16% 71%
33 of 71 46% 39 45 0 78 <1% 1% 5% - - - 2% 11% 81%
32 of 71 45% 38 46 0 76 <1% <1% 4% - - - 1% 6% 89%
31 of 71 44% 37 47 0 74 <1% <1% 2% - - - <1% 3% 94%
30 of 71 42% 36 48 0 72 <1% <1% 1% - - - <1% 2% 97%
20 of 71 28% 26 58 0 52 <1% <1% <1% - - - <1% <1% >99%
10 of 71 14% 16 68 0 32 X X <1% - - - X X >99%
0 of 71 0% 6 78 0 12 X X X - - - X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • * denotes first round home ice advantage in the playoffs