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Sun Sep 24 3:45 am

NCAA Football - Week 5 of 13

Marshall Most Likely Playoff Participation Outcomes - Winout

If it wins its remaining games, Marshall makes the 2023 NCAA Football Playoffs 43% of the times. The two tables below show the most likely outcomes when the team makes and misses the playoffs if those wins occur. (This content is currently in an experimental state.)

If it wins its remaining games, Marshall makes the playoffs 43% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to Marshall making the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (36)Marshall opponents win (SOS related)
  • (19)Duke loses 7 or more games
  • (5)Texas loses 6 or more games
Marshall Most Likely Outcome - Winout - Making the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Georgia (6) SECSEC 111 12 1 - - 100%
2 Oregon (4) PAC 12PAC 12 110 13 0 - - 100%
3 Marshall (36) SunbeltSunbelt 104 14 0 - - 100%
4 Michigan (1) Big 10Big 10 99 10 2 - - 100%
 
5 Penn St. (3) Big 10Big 10 97 10 3 - - X
6 Texas A&M (25) SECSEC 94 11 2 - - X
7 Duke (19) ACCACC 91 11 2 - - X
8 Oklahoma (14) Big 12Big 12 91 11 2 - - X
9 TCU (39) Big 12Big 12 90 11 2 - - X
10 Tennessee (16) SECSEC 90 9 3 - - X




If it wins its remaining games, Marshall misses the playoffs 57% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to Marshall missing the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (36)Marshall opponents lose (SOS related)
  • (8)Alabama wins 8 or more games
  • (5)Texas wins out
Marshall Most Likely Outcome - Winout - Missing the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Florida St. (7) ACCACC 111 13 0 - - 100%
2 Ohio St. (2) Big 10Big 10 103 10 2 - - 100%
3 Oregon (4) PAC 12PAC 12 102 12 1 - - 100%
4 Georgia (6) SECSEC 102 10 3 - - 100%
 
5 Marshall (36) SunbeltSunbelt 99 14 0 - - X
6 Kansas (22) Big 12Big 12 95 12 1 - - X
7 Duke (19) ACCACC 93 11 2 - - X
8 Ole Miss (31) SECSEC 92 11 2 - - X
9 Texas (5) Big 12Big 12 92 11 2 - - X
10 Maryland (23) Big 10Big 10 89 11 2 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot