PlayoffStatus.com

Sat Sep 23 11:45 pm

NCAA Football - Week 4 of 13

UCF Most Likely Playoff Participation Outcomes - Winout

If it wins its remaining games, UCF makes the 2023 NCAA Football Playoffs 14% of the times. The two tables below show the most likely outcomes when the team makes and misses the playoffs if those wins occur. (This content is currently in an experimental state.)

If it wins its remaining games, UCF makes the playoffs 14% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to UCF making the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (44)UCF opponents win (SOS related)
  • (5)Georgia loses 3 or more games
UCF Most Likely Outcome - Winout - Making the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Penn St. (3) Big 10Big 10 101 10 2 - - 100%
2 Oregon (7) PAC 12PAC 12 99 11 2 - - 100%
3 UCF (44) Big 12Big 12 95 12 1 - - 100%
4 Alabama (8) SECSEC 92 10 2 - - 100%
 
5 Ohio St. (1) Big 10Big 10 92 9 3 - - X
6 Missouri (17) SECSEC 91 12 1 - - X
7 Florida (18) SECSEC 91 10 2 - - X
8 NorthwesternN. Western (53) Big 10Big 10 91 10 3 - - X
9 Syracuse (26) ACCACC 90 12 1 - - X
10 Duke (19) ACCACC 87 10 2 - - X




If it wins its remaining games, UCF misses the playoffs 86% of the times. The table below shows the most likely outcome when this occurs. The following list shows additonal key games and events (not neccessarily required) that heavily contribute to UCF missing the playoffs.

  • Key Games and Events
  • (44)UCF does not plays in the Big 12 Championship Game
UCF Most Likely Outcome - Winout - Missing the Playoffs
Rank Team ConferenceConf MWP Record College Football Playoff
Participation Probabilities
W L Win Out Lose 1 More Current
1 Ohio St. (1) Big 10Big 10 118 12 1 - - 100%
2 Alabama (8) SECSEC 112 11 2 - - 100%
3 Michigan (2) Big 10Big 10 105 10 2 - - 100%
4 Oregon (7) PAC 12PAC 12 103 11 2 - - 100%
 
5 Texas (4) Big 12Big 12 100 12 1 - - X
6 Ole Miss (31) SECSEC 95 11 1 - - X
7 Marshall (36) SunbeltSunbelt 93 13 1 - - X
8 Florida St. (6) ACCACC 91 11 2 - - X
9 Colorado (32) PAC 12PAC 12 88 11 2 - - X
10 Miami (14) ACCACC 86 10 2 - - X
  • Notes
  • X means the team cannot win this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team advances to the playoffs - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot