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NFL - Week 12 of 17

Bears What If?

The Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Bears play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Bears What If?

Next Game - Lions (7-4)

  Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Win Next Game 6 6 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 8% 88%
Current Standings 5 6 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 3% 94%
Lose Next Game 5 7 0 X < 1% < 1% X < 1% < 1% > 99%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 4% 8% 88%
Current Standings < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 3% 94%
Worst Case Scenario X < 1% < 1% X < 1% < 1% > 99%
Best Case Scenario
   Bears beats Lions
Worst Case Scenario
   Lions beats Bears
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
5 of 5 100% 10 6 0 < 1% 1% 5% < 1% 34% 45% 16%
4 of 5 80% 9 7 0 X < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% 15% 84%
3 of 5 60% 8 8 0 X X X X X < 1% > 99%
2 of 5 40% 7 9 0 X X X X X X 100%
1 of 5 20% 6 10 0 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 5 0% 5 11 0 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • * denotes home field advantage in the first round of the post season tournament
  • ** denotes a bye in the first round of the post season tournament