PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Sep 27 12:00 am

NFL - Week 4 of 17

Bears What If?

The Bears What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bears play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bears What If?

Next Game - Lions (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1* 2* 3** 4** 5 6 7
Win Next Game 1 3 0 <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 90%
Current Standings 0 3 0 <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 91%
Lose Next Game 0 4 0 <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 94%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1* 2* 3** 4** 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 90%
Current Standings <1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 91%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 94%
Best Case Scenario
   Bears beats Lions
Worst Case Scenario
   Lions beats Bears
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1* 2* 3** 4** 5 6 7
13 of 13 100% 13 3 0 38% 44% 11% <1% 7% <1% <1%
12 of 13 92% 12 4 0 10% 33% 26% 3% 25% 3% <1%
11 of 13 85% 11 5 0 1% 11% 25% 10% 33% 18% 3%
10 of 13 77% 10 6 0 <1% 1% 11% 13% 19% 32% 24%
9 of 13 69% 9 7 0 <1% <1% 2% 8% 4% 20% 66%
8 of 13 62% 8 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% 3% 94%
7 of 13 54% 7 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 99%
6 of 13 46% 6 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 13 38% 5 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 13 31% 4 12 0 X X X X X X 100%
3 of 13 23% 3 13 0 X X X X X X 100%
2 of 13 15% 2 14 0 X X X X X X 100%
1 of 13 8% 1 15 0 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 0 16 0 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • New Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs