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Mon Oct 13 12:00 am

NFL - Week 6 of 18

Bengals What If?

The Bengals What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bengals play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bengals What If?

Next Game - Steelers (4‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 4 0 1% 3% 6% 11% 7% 9% 9% 54%
Current Standings 2 4 0 1% 2% 5% 9% 5% 7% 8% 63%
Lose Next Game 2 5 0 <1% 1% 2% 5% 4% 8% 9% 71%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 1% 3% 7% 12% 8% 9% 9% 52%
Current Standings 1% 2% 5% 9% 5% 7% 8% 63%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 5% 4% 8% 9% 71%
Best Case Scenario
   Bengals beats Steelers
   Raiders beats Chiefs
   Giants beats Broncos
 Worst Case Scenario
   Steelers beats Bengals
   Chiefs beats Raiders
   Broncos beats Giants
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
11 of 11 100% 13 4 0 35% 44% 14% 2% 5% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 11 91% 12 5 0 7% 29% 31% 11% 18% 3% <1% <1%
9 of 11 82% 11 6 0 1% 8% 26% 24% 23% 16% 3% <1%
8 of 11 73% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 9% 28% 13% 27% 17% 5%
7 of 11 64% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 16% 3% 17% 32% 31%
6 of 11 55% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 6% <1% 3% 14% 77%
5 of 11 45% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 98%
4 of 11 36% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 11 27% 5 12 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 11 18% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 11 9% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 11 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs