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Thu Sep 21 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Buccaneers What If?

The Buccaneers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Buccaneers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Buccaneers What If?

Next Game - Eagles (2‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 0 0 13% 9% 5% 3% 13% 10% 9% 37%
Current Standings 2 0 0 11% 9% 5% 3% 12% 9% 8% 42%
Lose Next Game 2 1 0 6% 9% 7% 4% 9% 10% 9% 47%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 14% 8% 5% 3% 14% 10% 8% 37%
Current Standings 11% 9% 5% 3% 12% 9% 8% 42%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 9% 7% 4% 9% 10% 9% 47%
Best Case Scenario
   Cardinals beats Cowboys
   Buccaneers beats Eagles
 Worst Case Scenario
   Cowboys beats Cardinals
   Eagles beats Buccaneers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 17 0 0 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 16 1 0 91% 9% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 15 2 0 66% 29% 2% <1% 4% <1% ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 14 3 0 30% 42% 10% 1% 17% 1% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 13 4 0 6% 29% 20% 4% 33% 7% <1% <1%
10 of 15 67% 12 5 0 1% 9% 18% 9% 32% 25% 6% <1%
9 of 15 60% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 8% 11% 17% 35% 22% 6%
8 of 15 53% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 2% 7% 5% 21% 33% 33%
7 of 15 47% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 3% <1% 5% 20% 71%
6 of 15 40% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 4% 95%
5 of 15 33% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 4 13 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 15 7% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs