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Tue Sep 16 1:15 am

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Chargers What If?

The Chargers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chargers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chargers What If?

Next Game - Broncos (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 0 0 22% 16% 11% 9% 8% 7% 6% 21%
Current Standings 2 0 0 21% 14% 10% 8% 9% 7% 6% 26%
Lose Next Game 2 1 0 12% 13% 10% 8% 11% 8% 7% 31%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 23% 16% 12% 10% 6% 6% 6% 21%
Current Standings 21% 14% 10% 8% 9% 7% 6% 26%
Worst Case Scenario 12% 12% 9% 7% 12% 8% 7% 32%
Best Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Raiders
   Chargers beats Broncos
 Worst Case Scenario
   Raiders beats Commanders
   Broncos beats Chargers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 17 0 0 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 16 1 0 86% 13% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 15 2 0 62% 33% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 14 3 0 33% 45% 16% 2% 5% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 13 4 0 11% 36% 29% 8% 14% 1% <1% <1%
10 of 15 67% 12 5 0 2% 16% 30% 18% 25% 9% 1% <1%
9 of 15 60% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 17% 24% 22% 24% 8% 1%
8 of 15 53% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 6% 19% 9% 27% 25% 13%
7 of 15 47% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 13% 2% 12% 27% 46%
6 of 15 40% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 2% 10% 82%
5 of 15 33% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 2% 96%
4 of 15 27% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
1 of 15 7% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs