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Mon Sep 16 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Colts What If?

The Colts What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Colts play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Colts What If?

Next Game - Bears (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 2 0 <1% 1% 3% 6% 4% 5% 6% 74%
Current Standings 0 2 0 <1% 1% 3% 5% 4% 5% 6% 76%
Lose Next Game 0 3 0 <1% 1% 2% 5% 3% 4% 5% 79%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario <1% 1% 3% 6% 4% 5% 6% 74%
Current Standings <1% 1% 3% 5% 4% 5% 6% 76%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 2% 5% 3% 4% 5% 79%
Best Case Scenario
   Colts beats Bears
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bears beats Colts
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 15 2 0 70% 24% 1% <1% 5% <1% ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 14 3 0 32% 40% 11% 1% 16% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 15 87% 13 4 0 8% 31% 26% 5% 27% 3% <1% <1%
12 of 15 80% 12 5 0 2% 12% 27% 16% 31% 12% 1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 16% 23% 22% 26% 9% 1%
10 of 15 67% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 6% 22% 9% 26% 24% 13%
9 of 15 60% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 14% 2% 10% 26% 47%
8 of 15 53% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 6% <1% 2% 9% 83%
7 of 15 47% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 97%
6 of 15 40% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 15 33% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 15 13% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs