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NFL - Week 11 of 17

Colts What If?

The Colts What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Colts play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Colts What If?

Next Game - Ravens (5-4)

  Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Win Next Game 10 0 0 95% 4% 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Current Standings 9 0 0 91% 6% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Lose Next Game 9 1 0 82% 13% 4% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 97% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Current Standings 91% 6% 2% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Worst Case Scenario 80% 14% 5% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Colts beats Ravens
   Chiefs beats Steelers
   Raiders beats Bengals
Worst Case Scenario
   Ravens beats Colts
   Steelers beats Chiefs
   Bengals beats Raiders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
7 of 7 100% 16 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
6 of 7 86% 15 1 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 7 71% 14 2 0 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 7 57% 13 3 0 60% 37% 3% < 1% ^ ^ ^
3 of 7 43% 12 4 0 12% 52% 31% 2% 2% 1% ^
2 of 7 29% 11 5 0 < 1% 15% 49% 16% 6% 11% 3%
1 of 7 14% 10 6 0 < 1% < 1% 16% 24% 2% 17% 40%
0 of 7 0% 9 7 0 < 1% < 1% 1% 7% < 1% 2% 90%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • * denotes home field advantage in the first round of the post season tournament
  • ** denotes a bye in the first round of the post season tournament

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