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Thu Sep 24 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Jaguars What If?

The Jaguars What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Jaguars play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Jaguars What If?

Next Game - Patriots (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 1 0 6% 10% 13% 18% 2% 4% 5% 43%
Current Standings 1 1 0 4% 9% 13% 19% 2% 3% 4% 46%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 2% 7% 11% 22% 1% 3% 4% 50%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 6% 10% 14% 18% 2% 4% 5% 41%
Current Standings 4% 9% 13% 19% 2% 3% 4% 46%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 6% 12% 22% 1% 3% 4% 51%
Best Case Scenario
   Jaguars beats Patriots
   Steelers beats Bengals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Jaguars
   Bengals beats Steelers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 16 1 0 82% 17% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 15 2 0 57% 38% 5% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 14 3 0 28% 49% 20% 2% <1% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 15 80% 13 4 0 9% 37% 41% 11% 1% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 12 5 0 1% 16% 43% 32% 4% 3% <1% <1%
10 of 15 67% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 27% 49% 6% 9% 4% 1%
9 of 15 60% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 11% 49% 3% 12% 15% 10%
8 of 15 53% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 36% 1% 6% 16% 39%
7 of 15 47% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 21% <1% 1% 6% 71%
6 of 15 40% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 8% <1% <1% 1% 91%
5 of 15 33% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 98%
4 of 15 27% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs