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NFL - Week 3 of 17

Packers What If?

The Packers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Packers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Packers What If?

Next Game - Lions (1-1)

  Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Win Next Game 2 1 0 5% 7% 8% 8% 6% 7% 59%
Current Standings 1 1 0 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 65%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 2% 4% 6% 6% 5% 7% 70%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 5% 8% 8% 8% 5% 7% 59%
Current Standings 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 65%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 4% 5% 6% 5% 7% 71%
Best Case Scenario
   Packers beats Lions
   Saints beats Vikings
   Steelers beats Panthers
Worst Case Scenario
   Lions beats Packers
   Vikings beats Saints
   Panthers beats Steelers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
14 of 14 100% 15 1 0 89% 11% < 1% < 1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 14 2 0 63% 33% 4% < 1% < 1% < 1% ^
12 of 14 86% 13 3 0 26% 49% 18% 2% 4% < 1% < 1%
11 of 14 79% 12 4 0 5% 30% 37% 10% 14% 3% < 1%
10 of 14 71% 11 5 0 < 1% 8% 29% 23% 19% 16% 4%
9 of 14 64% 10 6 0 < 1% 1% 10% 24% 11% 27% 27%
8 of 14 57% 9 7 0 < 1% < 1% 1% 14% 2% 15% 67%
7 of 14 50% 8 8 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% 5% < 1% 2% 92%
6 of 14 43% 7 9 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
5 of 14 36% 6 10 0 X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
4 of 14 29% 5 11 0 X X X X X < 1% > 99%
3 of 14 21% 4 12 0 X X X X X X 100%
2 of 14 14% 3 13 0 X X X X X X 100%
1 of 14 7% 2 14 0 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 1 15 0 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • * denotes home field advantage in the first round of the post season tournament
  • ** denotes a bye in the first round of the post season tournament