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Tue Sep 16 1:15 am

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Packers What If?

The Packers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Packers play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Packers What If?

Next Game - Browns (0‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 0 0 19% 17% 13% 11% 5% 6% 6% 24%
Current Standings 2 0 0 17% 15% 13% 12% 5% 5% 6% 28%
Lose Next Game 2 1 0 12% 15% 13% 13% 5% 6% 6% 32%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 20% 17% 13% 11% 4% 5% 5% 24%
Current Standings 17% 15% 13% 12% 5% 5% 6% 28%
Worst Case Scenario 11% 14% 13% 12% 5% 6% 6% 32%
Best Case Scenario
   Packers beats Browns
   Jets beats Buccaneers
   Ravens beats Lions
 Worst Case Scenario
   Browns beats Packers
   Buccaneers beats Jets
   Lions beats Ravens
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 17 0 0 96% 4% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 16 1 0 85% 15% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 15 2 0 58% 37% 4% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 14 3 0 26% 50% 19% 2% 3% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 13 4 0 7% 36% 37% 10% 9% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 15 67% 12 5 0 1% 14% 37% 25% 13% 9% 2% <1%
9 of 15 60% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 21% 34% 10% 19% 10% 3%
8 of 15 53% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 7% 31% 4% 16% 23% 18%
7 of 15 47% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 2% 20% 1% 6% 18% 54%
6 of 15 40% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 11% <1% 1% 6% 83%
5 of 15 33% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 4% <1% <1% <1% 96%
4 of 15 27% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
3 of 15 20% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
1 of 15 7% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs