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Mon Sep 14 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 1 of 18

Texans What If?

The Texans What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Texans play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Texans What If?

Next Game - Bengals (1‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 1 0 1% 3% 6% 9% 3% 5% 6% 67%
Current Standings 0 1 0 1% 3% 5% 8% 3% 4% 5% 70%
Lose Next Game 0 2 0 <1% 1% 4% 9% 2% 4% 5% 75%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 1% 4% 6% 11% 3% 5% 6% 65%
Current Standings 1% 3% 5% 8% 3% 4% 5% 70%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 4% 8% 2% 4% 5% 75%
Best Case Scenario
   Texans beats Bengals
   Eagles beats Titans
   Broncos beats Jaguars
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bengals beats Texans
   Titans beats Eagles
   Jaguars beats Broncos
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
16 of 16 100% 16 1 0 81% 19% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 15 2 0 54% 39% 6% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 14 3 0 24% 45% 23% 4% 4% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 16 81% 13 4 0 6% 30% 37% 14% 11% 2% <1% <1%
12 of 16 75% 12 5 0 1% 10% 33% 27% 16% 11% 2% <1%
11 of 16 69% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 17% 33% 12% 21% 12% 3%
10 of 16 63% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 6% 26% 4% 18% 25% 21%
9 of 16 56% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 16% 1% 6% 19% 56%
8 of 16 50% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 7% <1% 1% 6% 86%
7 of 16 44% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 97%
6 of 16 38% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 16 31% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 16 25% 4 13 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 16 19% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 16 13% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 16 6% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 16 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs