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Fri Oct 31 5:15 am

NFL - Week 9 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Chiefs (5‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 6 2 0 11% 13% 9% 3% 23% 15% 10% 16%
Current Standings 5 2 0 9% 11% 9% 4% 18% 13% 11% 25%
Lose Next Game 5 3 0 3% 9% 12% 5% 11% 14% 13% 33%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 15% 13% 10% 5% 18% 13% 10% 16%
Current Standings 9% 11% 9% 4% 18% 13% 11% 25%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 9% 12% 3% 12% 15% 13% 33%
Best Case Scenario
   Falcons beats Patriots
   Steelers beats Colts
   Bills beats Chiefs
 Worst Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Falcons
   Colts beats Steelers
   Chiefs beats Bills
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
10 of 10 100% 15 2 0 83% 17% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
9 of 10 90% 14 3 0 55% 34% 3% <1% 7% <1% ^ ^
8 of 10 80% 13 4 0 21% 38% 15% <1% 25% 1% <1% ^
7 of 10 70% 12 5 0 3% 21% 24% 2% 40% 9% <1% <1%
6 of 10 60% 11 6 0 <1% 4% 19% 6% 32% 31% 7% 1%
5 of 10 50% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 7% 7% 11% 34% 30% 11%
4 of 10 40% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 4% 1% 11% 31% 53%
3 of 10 30% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 5% 93%
2 of 10 20% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 10 10% 6 11 0 X X X <1% X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 10 0% 5 12 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs