PlayoffStatus.com

Mon Sep 26 11:30 pm

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Bills What If?

The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Bills What If?

Next Game - Ravens (2‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 1 0 13% 8% 5% 2% 19% 10% 8% 35%
Current Standings 2 1 0 10% 7% 5% 3% 17% 10% 8% 41%
Lose Next Game 2 2 0 5% 6% 5% 4% 17% 10% 8% 44%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 16% 8% 5% 3% 17% 9% 8% 34%
Current Standings 10% 7% 5% 3% 17% 10% 8% 41%
Worst Case Scenario 5% 6% 5% 3% 17% 11% 9% 45%
Best Case Scenario
   Bengals beats Dolphins
   Bills beats Ravens
   Raiders beats Broncos
Worst Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Bengals
   Ravens beats Bills
   Broncos beats Raiders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 16 1 0 96% 3% <1% <1% 1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 15 2 0 75% 10% <1% <1% 15% <1% ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 14 3 0 44% 23% 3% <1% 30% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 14 79% 13 4 0 16% 25% 11% 1% 44% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 12 5 0 3% 13% 17% 6% 48% 12% 1% <1%
9 of 14 64% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 10% 9% 35% 32% 10% 2%
8 of 14 57% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 8% 13% 31% 29% 15%
7 of 14 50% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 3% 2% 13% 28% 53%
6 of 14 43% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 2% 9% 88%
5 of 14 36% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
4 of 14 29% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 14 21% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 14 14% 4 13 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 14 7% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs