The Bills What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Bills play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 27% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 35% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 40% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 16% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 27% |
| Current Standings | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 35% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 5% | 8% | 11% | 14% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 41% |
|
Best Case Scenario Texans beats Jaguars Chargers beats Chiefs Bills beats Raiders |
Worst Case Scenario Jaguars beats Texans Chiefs beats Chargers Raiders beats Bills |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 12 of 12 | 100% | 16 | 1 | 0 | 99% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 11 of 12 | 92% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 78% | 20% | 2% | <1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 10 of 12 | 83% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 40% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 9 of 12 | 75% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 10% | 34% | 33% | 10% | 13% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 of 12 | 67% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1% | 12% | 32% | 25% | 20% | 9% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 1% | 16% | 32% | 14% | 22% | 12% | 2% |
| 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 26% | 4% | 17% | 26% | 22% |
| 5 of 12 | 42% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 12% | <1% | 5% | 19% | 64% |
| 4 of 12 | 33% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 93% |
| 3 of 12 | 25% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
| 2 of 12 | 17% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 12 | 8% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 12 | 0% | 4 | 13 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |