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NFL - Week 8 of 17

Chiefs What If?

The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Chiefs What If?

Next Game - Rams (2-4)

  Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Win Next Game 4 3 0 3% 4% 4% 2% 17% 13% 57%
Current Standings 3 3 0 3% 4% 3% 2% 15% 12% 60%
Lose Next Game 3 4 0 1% 2% 3% 2% 11% 11% 70%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 4% 5% 3% 2% 17% 14% 55%
Current Standings 3% 4% 3% 2% 15% 12% 60%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 2% 3% 2% 10% 11% 70%
Best Case Scenario
   Chiefs beats Rams
   Bears beats Patriots
Worst Case Scenario
   Rams beats Chiefs
   Patriots beats Bears
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
10 of 10 100% 13 3 0 62% 20% 2% < 1% 16% ^ ^
9 of 10 90% 12 4 0 20% 27% 10% 1% 41% 1% < 1%
8 of 10 80% 11 5 0 2% 9% 13% 5% 54% 16% 1%
7 of 10 70% 10 6 0 < 1% 1% 4% 5% 28% 40% 22%
6 of 10 60% 9 7 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 4% 21% 74%
5 of 10 50% 8 8 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 2% 98%
4 of 10 40% 7 9 0 X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
3 of 10 30% 6 10 0 X X X X < 1% < 1% > 99%
2 of 10 20% 5 11 0 X X X X X X 100%
1 of 10 10% 4 12 0 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 10 0% 3 13 0 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • * denotes home field advantage in the first round of the post season tournament
  • ** denotes a bye in the first round of the post season tournament