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Thu Sep 19 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Chiefs What If?

The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chiefs What If?

Next Game - Falcons (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 3 0 0 12% 10% 8% 5% 11% 9% 8% 37%
Current Standings 2 0 0 10% 9% 7% 5% 10% 8% 8% 42%
Lose Next Game 2 1 0 8% 8% 7% 5% 10% 9% 8% 45%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 13% 11% 9% 5% 9% 8% 8% 37%
Current Standings 10% 9% 7% 5% 10% 8% 8% 42%
Worst Case Scenario 8% 8% 6% 4% 11% 9% 9% 45%
Best Case Scenario
   Steelers beats Chargers
   Chiefs beats Falcons
 Worst Case Scenario
   Chargers beats Steelers
   Falcons beats Chiefs
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 17 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 16 1 0 97% 3% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 15 2 0 75% 21% 2% <1% 2% <1% ^ ^
12 of 15 80% 14 3 0 39% 40% 11% 1% 10% <1% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 13 4 0 12% 34% 23% 4% 24% 2% <1% <1%
10 of 15 67% 12 5 0 2% 15% 25% 12% 32% 13% 1% <1%
9 of 15 60% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 14% 16% 26% 29% 11% 2%
8 of 15 53% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 5% 12% 11% 29% 28% 15%
7 of 15 47% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 6% 2% 12% 29% 50%
6 of 15 40% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 2% 10% 85%
5 of 15 33% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 98%
4 of 15 27% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 4 13 0 X X X X X X <1% >99%
1 of 15 7% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs