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Mon Nov 2 11:45 pm

NFL - Week 9 of 18

Chiefs What If?

The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Chiefs What If?

Next Game - Jets (2‑6)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 6 2 0 11% 9% 10% 6% 18% 13% 12% 21%
Current Standings 5 2 0 10% 9% 9% 6% 18% 13% 12% 24%
Lose Next Game 5 3 0 4% 5% 8% 6% 16% 13% 14% 34%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 13% 11% 11% 8% 15% 13% 11% 19%
Current Standings 10% 9% 9% 6% 18% 13% 12% 24%
Worst Case Scenario 4% 5% 7% 5% 17% 15% 13% 36%
Best Case Scenario
   Chiefs beats Jets
   Panthers beats Broncos
 Worst Case Scenario
   Jets beats Chiefs
   Broncos beats Panthers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
10 of 10 100% 15 2 0 96% X X X 4% ^ ^ ^
9 of 10 90% 14 3 0 67% 17% 1% <1% 14% <1% ^ ^
8 of 10 80% 13 4 0 23% 31% 13% 2% 31% 1% <1% <1%
7 of 10 70% 12 5 0 3% 15% 22% 7% 42% 11% 1% <1%
6 of 10 60% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 12% 13% 30% 31% 10% 1%
5 of 10 50% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 8% 8% 31% 34% 16%
4 of 10 40% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% 1% 8% 28% 61%
3 of 10 30% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 6% 93%
2 of 10 20% 7 10 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
1 of 10 10% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
0 of 10 0% 5 12 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs