The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 42% |
| Current Standings | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 47% |
| Lose Next Game | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 54% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 4% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 41% |
| Current Standings | 4% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 11% | 47% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 2% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 55% |
|
Best Case Scenario Cowboys beats Broncos Chiefs beats Commanders |
Worst Case Scenario Broncos beats Cowboys Commanders beats Chiefs |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 10 of 10 | 100% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 78% | 20% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 45% | 16% | 2% | 5% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 8 of 10 | 80% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 6% | 27% | 30% | 10% | 24% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 of 10 | 70% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 5% | 20% | 17% | 30% | 22% | 5% | <1% |
| 6 of 10 | 60% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 12% | 13% | 32% | 27% | 10% |
| 5 of 10 | 50% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 31% | 49% |
| 4 of 10 | 40% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 1% | 8% | 90% |
| 3 of 10 | 30% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 2 of 10 | 20% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |
| 1 of 10 | 10% | 5 | 12 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | <1% | >99% |
| 0 of 10 | 0% | 4 | 13 | 0 | X | X | X | X | X | X | X | 100% |