The Chiefs What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Chiefs play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 12 | 1 | 0 | 70% | 25% | 5% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 11 | 1 | 0 | 63% | 28% | 6% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Lose Next Game | 11 | 2 | 0 | 38% | 40% | 12% | 1% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 88% | 11% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| Current Standings | 63% | 28% | 6% | <1% | 3% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| Worst Case Scenario | 28% | 49% | 14% | 1% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
|
Best Case Scenario Browns beats Steelers Rams beats Bills Chiefs beats Chargers |
Worst Case Scenario Steelers beats Browns Bills beats Rams Chargers beats Chiefs |
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| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 5 of 5 | 100% | 16 | 1 | 0 | 100% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 4 of 5 | 80% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 81% | 19% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 3 of 5 | 60% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 36% | 61% | 3% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 2 of 5 | 40% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 5% | 59% | 25% | X | 12% | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 1 of 5 | 20% | 12 | 5 | 0 | <1% | 13% | 36% | 11% | 39% | 1% | <1% | ^ |
| 0 of 5 | 0% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 9% | 57% | 26% | 4% | ^ |