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Mon Dec 9 11:45 pm

NFL - Week 15 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Rams (7‑6)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 7 7 0 X X 1% 1% X <1% 4% 93%
Current Standings 6 7 0 X X 1% 1% X <1% 3% 95%
Lose Next Game 6 8 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario X X 1% 1% X <1% 4% 93%
Current Standings X X 1% 1% X <1% 3% 95%
Worst Case Scenario X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
Best Case Scenario
   Forty-Niners beats Rams
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rams beats Forty-Niners
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
4 of 4 100% 10 7 0 X X 19% 11% X 2% 37% 30%
3 of 4 75% 9 8 0 X X 1% 3% X <1% 5% 92%
2 of 4 50% 8 9 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
1 of 4 25% 7 10 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 4 0% 6 11 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs