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Tue Dec 16 4:00 am

NFL - Week 16 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Colts (8‑6)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 11 4 0 18% 1% <1% X 34% 36% 11% ^
Current Standings 10 4 0 11% 1% <1% X 30% 38% 19% 1%
Lose Next Game 10 5 0 2% <1% <1% X 27% 41% 28% 2%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 34% 1% <1% X 10% 43% 12% ^
Current Standings 11% 1% <1% X 30% 38% 19% 1%
Worst Case Scenario <1% <1% X X 37% 34% 27% 2%
Best Case Scenario
   Seahawks beats Rams
   Forty-Niners beats Colts
 Worst Case Scenario
   Rams beats Seahawks
   Colts beats Forty-Niners
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
3 of 3 100% 13 4 0 56% X X X 44% ^ ^ ^
2 of 3 67% 12 5 0 2% 2% 1% X 52% 43% 1% ^
1 of 3 33% 11 6 0 X X X X 3% 57% 39% ^
0 of 3 0% 10 7 0 X X X X X 7% 81% 11%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs