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Mon Nov 24 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 13 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Browns (3‑8)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 9 4 0 4% 5% 1% <1% 46% 27% 12% 5%
Current Standings 8 4 0 4% 4% 1% <1% 40% 26% 14% 10%
Lose Next Game 8 5 0 1% 2% 1% <1% 31% 28% 20% 18%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 12% 3% 2% <1% 39% 24% 13% 6%
Current Standings 4% 4% 1% <1% 40% 26% 14% 10%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% <1% <1% 32% 29% 20% 17%
Best Case Scenario
   Bears beats Eagles
   Forty-Niners beats Browns
   Panthers beats Rams
 Worst Case Scenario
   Eagles beats Bears
   Browns beats Forty-Niners
   Rams beats Panthers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
5 of 5 100% 13 4 0 24% 16% <1% X 60% ^ ^ ^
4 of 5 80% 12 5 0 3% 6% 3% <1% 72% 15% <1% ^
3 of 5 60% 11 6 0 <1% <1% 1% <1% 38% 48% 12% 1%
2 of 5 40% 10 7 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% 5% 30% 45% 20%
1 of 5 20% 9 8 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 25% 73%
0 of 5 0% 8 9 0 X X X X X <1% 2% 98%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs