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Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

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Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Cowboys (0-0)

  Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Win Next Game 1 0 0 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 59%
Current Standings 0 0 0 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 63%
Lose Next Game 0 1 0 3% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 67%




Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
  1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
Best Case Scenario 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 57%
Current Standings 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 63%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 67%
Best Case Scenario
   Packers beats Seahawks
   Forty-Niners beats Cowboys
   Chargers beats Cardinals
Worst Case Scenario
   Seahawks beats Packers
   Cowboys beats Forty-Niners
   Cardinals beats Chargers
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs
W L T 1** 2** 3* 4* 5 6 7
16 of 16 100% 16 0 0 98% 2% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 15 1 0 89% 11% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% ^
14 of 16 88% 14 2 0 63% 31% 4% < 1% 2% < 1% ^
13 of 16 81% 13 3 0 27% 43% 18% 2% 9% < 1% < 1%
12 of 16 75% 12 4 0 6% 26% 31% 10% 21% 5% < 1%
11 of 16 69% 11 5 0 < 1% 7% 23% 21% 22% 20% 6%
10 of 16 63% 10 6 0 < 1% 1% 9% 21% 11% 27% 31%
9 of 16 56% 9 7 0 < 1% < 1% 2% 14% 2% 14% 68%
8 of 16 50% 8 8 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% 7% < 1% 3% 90%
7 of 16 44% 7 9 0 < 1% < 1% < 1% 3% < 1% < 1% 97%
6 of 16 38% 6 10 0 X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 99%
5 of 16 31% 5 11 0 X X < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
4 of 16 25% 4 12 0 X X X < 1% < 1% < 1% > 99%
3 of 16 19% 3 13 0 X X X X X X 100%
2 of 16 13% 2 14 0 X X X X X X 100%
1 of 16 6% 1 15 0 X X X X X X 100%
0 of 16 0% 0 16 0 X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • * denotes home field advantage in the first round of the post season tournament
  • ** denotes a bye in the first round of the post season tournament