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Sun Nov 16 7:30 pm

NFL - Week 11 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Panthers (6‑5)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 8 4 0 3% 6% 3% 1% 38% 26% 14% 8%
Current Standings 7 4 0 2% 5% 3% 1% 34% 24% 15% 16%
Lose Next Game 7 5 0 <1% 1% 2% 2% 25% 24% 19% 28%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 3% 4% 3% 1% 32% 22% 17% 18%
Current Standings 2% 5% 3% 1% 34% 24% 15% 16%
Worst Case Scenario 2% 5% 3% 1% 35% 24% 14% 16%
Best Case Scenario
   Lions beats Eagles
   Raiders beats Cowboys
 Worst Case Scenario
   Eagles beats Lions
   Cowboys beats Raiders
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
6 of 6 100% 13 4 0 20% 27% 5% <1% 48% ^ ^ ^
5 of 6 83% 12 5 0 3% 11% 9% 2% 66% 10% <1% <1%
4 of 6 67% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 2% 3% 45% 41% 8% <1%
3 of 6 50% 10 7 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 10% 38% 38% 13%
2 of 6 33% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7% 30% 63%
1 of 6 17% 8 9 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% 4% 96%
0 of 6 0% 7 10 0 X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs