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Fri Sep 29 3:30 am

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Forty-Niners What If?

The Forty-Niners What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Forty-Niners play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Forty-Niners What If?

Next Game - Cardinals (1‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 0 0 28% 15% 12% 10% 6% 6% 5% 17%
Current Standings 3 0 0 27% 14% 11% 9% 6% 6% 5% 20%
Lose Next Game 3 1 0 19% 14% 12% 10% 7% 7% 6% 25%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 30% 15% 12% 10% 6% 5% 5% 16%
Current Standings 27% 14% 11% 9% 6% 6% 5% 20%
Worst Case Scenario 18% 14% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 25%
Best Case Scenario
   Commanders beats Eagles
   Forty-Niners beats Cardinals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Eagles beats Commanders
   Cardinals beats Forty-Niners
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
14 of 14 100% 17 0 0 100% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
13 of 14 93% 16 1 0 97% 3% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 14 86% 15 2 0 76% 21% 2% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
11 of 14 79% 14 3 0 45% 40% 12% 1% 2% <1% <1% <1%
10 of 14 71% 13 4 0 14% 38% 31% 8% 8% 1% <1% <1%
9 of 14 64% 12 5 0 2% 16% 36% 21% 17% 7% 1% <1%
8 of 14 57% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 20% 30% 17% 20% 9% 2%
7 of 14 50% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 6% 26% 7% 21% 23% 16%
6 of 14 43% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 15% 1% 8% 21% 54%
5 of 14 36% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 7% <1% 1% 6% 86%
4 of 14 29% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% <1% 98%
3 of 14 21% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 14 14% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 14 7% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 14 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs