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Mon Sep 14 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 1 of 18

Lions What If?

The Lions What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Lions play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lions What If?

Next Game - Bills (1‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 0 0 13% 10% 6% 4% 11% 9% 8% 40%
Current Standings 1 0 0 11% 9% 6% 4% 10% 8% 8% 44%
Lose Next Game 1 1 0 8% 9% 6% 4% 10% 9% 7% 46%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 13% 10% 6% 3% 11% 8% 8% 40%
Current Standings 11% 9% 6% 4% 10% 8% 8% 44%
Worst Case Scenario 7% 9% 6% 4% 9% 8% 8% 48%
Best Case Scenario
   Lions beats Bills
   Dolphins beats Forty-Niners
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bills beats Lions
   Forty-Niners beats Dolphins
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
16 of 16 100% 17 0 0 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
15 of 16 94% 16 1 0 90% 9% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
14 of 16 88% 15 2 0 67% 28% 1% <1% 3% <1% ^ ^
13 of 16 81% 14 3 0 34% 44% 9% <1% 12% <1% <1% <1%
12 of 16 75% 13 4 0 9% 34% 22% 3% 26% 6% <1% <1%
11 of 16 69% 12 5 0 1% 13% 23% 9% 30% 20% 4% <1%
10 of 16 63% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 11% 13% 17% 32% 19% 5%
9 of 16 56% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 3% 10% 5% 22% 32% 27%
8 of 16 50% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 5% 1% 7% 21% 66%
7 of 16 44% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 6% 91%
6 of 16 38% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 99%
5 of 16 31% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 16 25% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 16 19% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 16 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 16 6% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 16 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs