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Sun Oct 6 1:00 pm

NFL - Week 5 of 18

Lions What If?

The Lions What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Lions play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Lions What If?

Next Game - Cowboys (2‑2)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 4 1 0 12% 7% 4% 1% 20% 11% 9% 36%
Current Standings 3 1 0 11% 6% 4% 2% 17% 10% 9% 42%
Lose Next Game 3 2 0 6% 6% 4% 2% 14% 10% 10% 47%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 11% 6% 4% 2% 17% 11% 9% 41%
Current Standings 11% 6% 4% 2% 17% 10% 9% 42%
Worst Case Scenario 10% 7% 4% 1% 17% 10% 9% 42%
Best Case Scenario
   Forty-Niners beats Cardinals
 Worst Case Scenario
   Cardinals beats Forty-Niners
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 16 1 0 >99% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 15 2 0 86% 12% <1% <1% 2% ^ ^ ^
11 of 13 85% 14 3 0 46% 31% 6% <1% 17% <1% <1% ^
10 of 13 77% 13 4 0 14% 27% 14% 3% 39% 2% <1% <1%
9 of 13 69% 12 5 0 2% 10% 14% 6% 50% 17% 2% <1%
8 of 13 62% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 5% 6% 32% 37% 15% 3%
7 of 13 54% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 1% 3% 9% 29% 34% 24%
6 of 13 46% 9 8 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 7% 23% 69%
5 of 13 38% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 4% 95%
4 of 13 31% 7 10 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 13 23% 6 11 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
2 of 13 15% 5 12 0 X X X X X <1% <1% >99%
1 of 13 8% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs