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Sat Aug 23 8:15 am

NFL - Week 1 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Raiders (0‑0)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 1 0 0 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 53%
Current Standings 0 0 0 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 56%
Lose Next Game 0 1 0 3% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 62%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 53%
Current Standings 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 56%
Worst Case Scenario 3% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 62%
Best Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Raiders
 Worst Case Scenario
   Raiders beats Patriots
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
17 of 17 100% 17 0 0 99% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
16 of 17 94% 16 1 0 92% 8% <1% <1% <1% ^ ^ ^
15 of 17 88% 15 2 0 68% 27% 3% <1% 2% <1% ^ ^
14 of 17 82% 14 3 0 34% 43% 14% 2% 7% <1% <1% <1%
13 of 17 76% 13 4 0 9% 31% 30% 8% 19% 4% <1% <1%
12 of 17 71% 12 5 0 1% 10% 27% 19% 23% 17% 3% <1%
11 of 17 65% 11 6 0 <1% 2% 12% 22% 15% 27% 17% 6%
10 of 17 59% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 4% 17% 4% 19% 28% 27%
9 of 17 53% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 10% 1% 6% 20% 63%
8 of 17 47% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 1% 6% 88%
7 of 17 41% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 98%
6 of 17 35% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
5 of 17 29% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 17 24% 4 13 0 X X <1% <1% X X <1% >99%
3 of 17 18% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 17 12% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 17 6% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 17 0% 0 17 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs