PlayoffStatus.com

Tue Sep 16 1:15 am

NFL - Week 3 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Steelers (1‑1)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 1 0 4% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 50%
Current Standings 1 1 0 3% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 54%
Lose Next Game 1 2 0 1% 4% 7% 10% 5% 7% 7% 60%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 4% 7% 9% 10% 6% 7% 7% 49%
Current Standings 3% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 54%
Worst Case Scenario 1% 4% 7% 9% 5% 6% 7% 61%
Best Case Scenario
   Dolphins beats Bills
   Patriots beats Steelers
Worst Case Scenario
   Bills beats Dolphins
   Steelers beats Patriots
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
15 of 15 100% 16 1 0 81% 19% 1% <1% ^ ^ ^ ^
14 of 15 93% 15 2 0 56% 38% 5% <1% 1% <1% ^ ^
13 of 15 87% 14 3 0 27% 45% 17% 2% 8% 1% <1% <1%
12 of 15 80% 13 4 0 8% 31% 29% 8% 20% 4% <1% <1%
11 of 15 73% 12 5 0 1% 12% 28% 18% 25% 13% 2% <1%
10 of 15 67% 11 6 0 <1% 3% 15% 24% 18% 26% 11% 2%
9 of 15 60% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 5% 21% 7% 23% 27% 17%
8 of 15 53% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 12% 1% 9% 25% 52%
7 of 15 47% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 5% <1% 1% 8% 86%
6 of 15 40% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% 2% <1% <1% 1% 97%
5 of 15 33% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 15 27% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 15 20% 4 13 0 X X X <1% X X <1% >99%
2 of 15 13% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 15 7% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 15 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs