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Mon Nov 17 11:15 pm

NFL - Week 12 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Bengals (3‑7)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 10 2 0 38% 34% 16% 2% 7% 3% 1% <1%
Current Standings 9 2 0 31% 32% 19% 4% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Lose Next Game 9 3 0 15% 32% 26% 6% 9% 6% 3% 1%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 42% 36% 13% 2% 5% 2% 1% <1%
Current Standings 31% 32% 19% 4% 8% 4% 2% 1%
Worst Case Scenario 13% 29% 27% 6% 13% 8% 3% 1%
Best Case Scenario
   Texans beats Bills
   Patriots beats Bengals
   Chiefs beats Colts
 Worst Case Scenario
   Bills beats Texans
   Bengals beats Patriots
   Colts beats Chiefs
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won		 Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games		 Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
 2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
 5 6 7 8
6 of 6 100% 15 2 0 78% 20% 1% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
5 of 6 83% 14 3 0 46% 45% 9% ^ ^ ^ ^ ^
4 of 6 67% 13 4 0 13% 50% 31% 1% 4% <1% <1% ^
3 of 6 50% 12 5 0 1% 16% 45% 12% 20% 6% <1% <1%
2 of 6 33% 11 6 0 <1% 1% 18% 21% 18% 29% 11% 1%
1 of 6 17% 10 7 0 <1% <1% 2% 12% 3% 20% 37% 27%
0 of 6 0% 9 8 0 X <1% <1% 1% <1% 2% 11% 86%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs