The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.
| Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Win Next Game | 7 | 2 | 0 | 18% | 24% | 20% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 5% |
| Current Standings | 6 | 2 | 0 | 17% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
| Lose Next Game | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9% | 19% | 21% | 12% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 11% |
| Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| Best Case Scenario | 26% | 21% | 15% | 8% | 11% | 8% | 5% | 6% |
| Current Standings | 17% | 23% | 19% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 6% | 8% |
| Worst Case Scenario | 8% | 19% | 23% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 11% |
|
Best Case Scenario Patriots beats Falcons Steelers beats Colts Texans beats Broncos |
Worst Case Scenario Falcons beats Patriots Colts beats Steelers Broncos beats Texans |
|||||||
| Remaining Games Won |
Winning Percentage of Remaining Games |
Resultant Record | Divisional Winners | Wildcard | No Playoffs No POs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | T | 1* First Round Bye |
2** First Round Home Field Advantage |
3** First Round Home Field Advantage |
4** First Round Home Field Advantage |
5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||
| 9 of 9 | 100% | 15 | 2 | 0 | 77% | 22% | 1% | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ | ^ |
| 8 of 9 | 89% | 14 | 3 | 0 | 47% | 44% | 8% | <1% | 1% | <1% | ^ | ^ |
| 7 of 9 | 78% | 13 | 4 | 0 | 16% | 46% | 28% | 2% | 8% | <1% | <1% | ^ |
| 6 of 9 | 67% | 12 | 5 | 0 | 2% | 22% | 44% | 8% | 18% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 of 9 | 56% | 11 | 6 | 0 | <1% | 4% | 32% | 20% | 16% | 22% | 6% | 1% |
| 4 of 9 | 44% | 10 | 7 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 12% | 23% | 7% | 25% | 25% | 9% |
| 3 of 9 | 33% | 9 | 8 | 0 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 14% | 1% | 9% | 26% | 49% |
| 2 of 9 | 22% | 8 | 9 | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 88% |
| 1 of 9 | 11% | 7 | 10 | 0 | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 99% |
| 0 of 9 | 0% | 6 | 11 | 0 | X | X | X | X | <1% | <1% | <1% | >99% |