PlayoffStatus.com

Sun Oct 2 11:45 pm

NFL - Week 4 of 18

Patriots What If?

The Patriots What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Patriots play future games. These games include either the next game, all remaining games, or a set of games called Best/Worst Case Scenarios. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Patriots What If?

Next Game - Lions (1‑3)

  Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  W L T 1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
Win Next Game 2 3 0 1% 2% 2% 2% 5% 7% 7% 74%
Current Standings 1 3 0 1% 2% 2% 2% 5% 6% 7% 76%
Lose Next Game 1 4 0 <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 82%


Best/Worst Case Scenarios

  Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
  1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
Best Case Scenario 1% 2% 2% 2% 5% 7% 7% 74%
Current Standings 1% 2% 2% 2% 5% 6% 7% 76%
Worst Case Scenario <1% 1% 1% 2% 4% 5% 6% 82%
Best Case Scenario
   Patriots beats Lions
Worst Case Scenario
   Lions beats Patriots
  • Notes
  • Only games from the current week are considered for inclusion into the scenarios
  • Only those games that meaningfully affect the playoff probabilities are included in the scenarios - maximum of three


Remaining Games

Remaining Games
Won
Winning Percentage of
Remaining Games
Resultant Record Divisional Winners Wildcard No Playoffs No POs
W L T 1*
First Round Bye
2**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
3**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
4**
First Round Home Field
Advantage
5 6 7 8
13 of 13 100% 14 3 0 67% 25% 2% <1% 6% <1% ^ ^
12 of 13 92% 13 4 0 28% 35% 10% 1% 24% 1% <1% <1%
11 of 13 85% 12 5 0 6% 22% 18% 4% 39% 11% 1% <1%
10 of 13 77% 11 6 0 <1% 5% 13% 8% 34% 30% 9% 1%
9 of 13 69% 10 7 0 <1% 1% 4% 6% 14% 34% 29% 13%
8 of 13 62% 9 8 0 <1% <1% 1% 3% 2% 14% 30% 50%
7 of 13 54% 8 9 0 <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% 2% 10% 88%
6 of 13 46% 7 10 0 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 99%
5 of 13 38% 6 11 0 X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
4 of 13 31% 5 12 0 X X <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% >99%
3 of 13 23% 4 13 0 X X X X X X X 100%
2 of 13 15% 3 14 0 X X X X X X X 100%
1 of 13 8% 2 15 0 X X X X X X X 100%
0 of 13 0% 1 16 0 X X X X X X X 100%
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team will finish better than this playoff spot
  • X means the team cannot win this playoff spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will win this playoff spot - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot
  • Table Sorting Method
  • *  denotes first round bye in the playoffs
  • ** denotes first round home field advantage in the playoffs