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NCAA Hockey - Regular Season Complete

NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

How far is your team going to proceed into the college hockey tournament? The NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities table presents the probabilities that your college team will proceed to different tournament rounds. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Click a team name to proceed to the team playoff picture page.

NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities
Team ConferenceConf Record WPi
Win Percentage
 NPIi
NCAA Power Index
 NCAA Hockey
National Champions		 Championship Game
Participate		 Frozen Four Round 2 Round 1
W L T Ptsi
Schedule Content
Pts = 2*W + 1*T + 0*L
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Michigan Big 10Big 10 27 7 1 55 79 .5758 17% 28% 47% 73% 100%
Western Michigan NCHCNCHC 26 9 1 53 74 .5664 13% 23% 41% 68% 100%
North Dakota NCHCNCHC 27 8 1 55 76 .5761 12% 22% 41% 70% 100%
Michigan State Big 10Big 10 25 7 2 52 76 .5742 12% 22% 41% 69% 100%
Providence EastEast 23 9 2 48 71 .5544 7% 15% 28% 58% 100%
Denver NCHCNCHC 23 11 3 49 66 .5547 6% 13% 26% 56% 100%
Quinnipiac ECACECAC 26 7 3 55 76 .5541 6% 13% 26% 55% 100%
Minnesota-DuluthMN-Duluth NCHCNCHC 22 13 1 45 63 .5488 5% 11% 24% 52% 100%
Penn State Big 10Big 10 21 12 2 44 63 .5457 4% 9% 20% 46% 100%
Wisconsin Big 10Big 10 21 12 2 44 63 .5394 4% 8% 19% 43% >99%
Cornell ECACECAC 20 8 1 41 71 .5484 3% 8% 19% 46% >99%
Dartmouth ECACECAC 19 7 4 42 70 .5463 2% 6% 16% 41% >99%
Augustana CCHACCHA 22 10 4 48 67 .5344 1% 4% 10% 24% 76%
MassachusettsMass. EastEast 21 12 1 43 63 .5297 1% 3% 6% 14% 37%
St. Thomas CCHACCHA 20 11 5 45 63 .5299 1% 2% 5% 12% 36%
ConnecticutUConn EastEast 18 11 5 41 60 .5292 1% 2% 5% 11% 31%
Minnesota State CCHACCHA 20 10 7 47 64 .5272 1% 1% 4% 9% 29%
Sacred Heart AtlanticAtl. 21 12 3 45 63 .5127 <1% 1% 4% 10% 39%
Bentley AtlanticAtl. 20 11 5 45 63 .5112 <1% 1% 4% 10% 38%
Michigan Tech CCHACCHA 23 12 3 49 64 .5240 <1% 1% 3% 7% 21%
Boston College EastEast 19 14 1 39 57 .5246 <1% 1% 3% 5% 14%
Union ECACECAC 22 10 3 47 67 .5220 <1% 1% 2% 4% 12%
Maine EastEast 18 13 3 39 57 .5202 <1% 1% 2% 4% 10%
Holy Cross AtlanticAtl. 18 16 2 38 53 .5026 <1% <1% 1% 3% 15%
Boston University EastEast 17 16 2 36 51 .5139 <1% <1% 1% 2% 7%
Princeton ECACECAC 15 12 3 33 55 .5087 <1% <1% 1% 2% 6%
Merrimack EastEast 18 15 2 38 54 .5119 <1% <1% 1% 2% 5%
NortheasternN. Eastern EastEast 17 17 1 35 50 .5142 <1% <1% 1% 1% 5%
Robert Morris AtlanticAtl. 15 19 3 33 45 .4798 <1% <1% <1% 1% 8%
Harvard ECACECAC 15 14 2 32 52 .5072 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Ohio State Big 10Big 10 13 20 2 28 40 .5154 <1% <1% <1% 1% 3%
Clarkson ECACECAC 16 16 3 35 50 .4935 <1% <1% <1% 1% 2%
Colgate ECACECAC 13 18 4 30 43 .4791 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
Bowling Green CCHACCHA 18 11 7 43 60 .5165 X X X X X
Air Force AtlanticAtl. 18 15 4 40 54 .4973 X X X X X
Miami NCHCNCHC 18 16 2 38 53 .5058 X X X X X
Canisius AtlanticAtl. 17 16 2 36 51 .4771 X X X X X
RIT AtlanticAtl. 17 17 2 36 50 .4844 X X X X X
St. Cloud State NCHCNCHC 16 19 1 33 46 .5080 X X X X X
Colorado College NCHCNCHC 13 17 6 32 44 .5055 X X X X X
Alaska NCAA IndependentsInd. 14 15 2 30 48 .4984 X X X X X
Army AtlanticAtl. 12 17 6 30 43 .4800 X X X X X
Bemidji State CCHACCHA 13 19 4 30 42 .4745 X X X X X
Arizona St. NCHCNCHC 14 21 1 29 40 .4864 X X X X X
New Hampshire EastEast 14 20 1 29 41 .4887 X X X X X
Lindenwood NCAA IndependentsInd. 14 14 0 28 50 .4940 X X X X X
Niagara AtlanticAtl. 13 23 1 27 36 .4523 X X X X X
Vermont EastEast 13 21 1 27 39 .4695 X X X X X
Mass.-LowellMA-Lowell EastEast 13 22 0 26 37 .4773 X X X X X
Lake Superior CCHACCHA 11 22 3 25 35 .4663 X X X X X
Minnesota Big 10Big 10 11 22 3 25 35 .4911 X X X X X
Nebraska-OmahaNebr-Omaha NCHCNCHC 12 24 0 24 33 .4849 X X X X X
Long Island NCAA IndependentsInd. 11 17 1 23 40 .4861 X X X X X
Notre Dame Big 10Big 10 9 23 5 23 31 .4700 X X X X X
Rensselaer ECACECAC 11 23 1 23 33 .4600 X X X X X
Stonehill NCAA IndependentsInd. 9 21 2 20 31 .4436 X X X X X
Ferris State CCHACCHA 8 27 2 18 24 .4498 X X X X X
St. Lawrence ECACECAC 7 25 3 17 24 .4241 X X X X X
Yale ECACECAC 8 22 1 17 27 .4411 X X X X X
Mercyhurst AtlanticAtl. 6 28 3 15 20 .4200 X X X X X
Brown ECACECAC 5 24 2 12 19 .4315 X X X X X
Anchorage NCAA IndependentsInd. 5 25 1 11 18 .4205 X X X X X
Northern Michigan CCHACCHA 3 29 2 8 12 .4236 X X X X X
  • Notes
  • ^ means the team has already proceeded to the next tournament round
  • X means the team did not proceed to this tournament round
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - green number indicates the team controls its destiny for this spot
  • 50% - probability the team will proceed to this tournament round - red number indicates the team does not control its destiny for this spot